Optimal allocation of reliability tasks to mitigate faults during system development

^** Email: walter.johnston{at}baesystems.com^*** Email: j.quigley{at}strath.ac.uk^**** Email: lesley.walls{at}strath.ac.uk This paper considers reliability planning for a concept designfor a new system where a portfolio of possible reliability developmenttasks exists; the goal is to find a selection and sequence oftasks to achieve reliability targets subject to time constraintsat minimal cost. This is non-trivial given that each task potentiallycan expose several different weaknesses and each weakness potentiallycan be exposed by several different tasks. We use a Bayesianpoint process model to estimate the system reliability. Theprior distribution maps to a fault register and relates directlyto a set of potential engineering modifications.The likely impactof each task can be assessed using the point process model.An integer programming approach is used to sequence and scheduletasks under the constraint that contractual reliability requirementsmust be met. An illustrative example is provided and an extensionto system availability is proposed.     

Optimal scheduling of non-perfect inspections

^** Corresponding author. Email: romulo.zequeira{at}utt.fr^*** Email: christophe.berenguer{at}utt.fr In this paper, we study the determination of optimal inspectionpolicies when three types of inspections are available: partial,perfect and imperfect. Perfect inspections diagnose withouterror the system state. The system can fail because of threecompeting failure types: I, II and III. Partial inspectionsdetect without error type I failures. Failures of type II canbe detected by imperfect inspections which have non-zero probabilityof false positives. Partial and imperfect inspections are madeat the same time. Type III failures are detectable only by perfectinspections. If the system is found failed in an inspection,a repair is made which renders the system in a good-as-new condition.The system is preventively maintained following an age-basedpolicy. Preventive maintenance actions return the system toa good-as-new condition. We consider cost contributions of inspections,repairs, preventive maintenance and periods of unavailability.The model presented permits to determine the optimal (constant)inter-inspection period for partial, imperfect and perfect inspectionsand the optimal times of preventive maintenance actions.     

Single-sided mobile NMR apparatus using the transverse flux of a single permanent magnet

This study presents a simple design for a mobile, single-sided nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) apparatus which uses the magnetic flux parallel to the magnetization direction of a single, disc-shaped permanent magnet polarized in radial direction. The stray magnetic field above the magnet is approximately parallel to the magnetization direction of the magnet and is utilized as the B₀ magnetic field of the apparatus. The apparatus weighs 1.8 kg, has a compact structure and can be held in one's palm. The apparatus generates a B₀ field strength of about 0.279 T at the center of apparatus surface and can acquire a clear Hahn echo signal of a pencil eraser block lying on the RF coil in one shot. Moreover, a strong static magnetic field gradient exists in the direction perpendicular to the apparatus surface. The strength of the static magnetic field gradient near the center of the apparatus surface is about 10.2 T/m; one-dimensional imaging of thin objects and liquid self-diffusion coefficient measurements can be performed therein. The available spatial resolution of the one-dimensional imaging experiments using a 5×5 mm horizontal sample area is about 200 μm. Several nondestructive inspection applications of the apparatus, including distinguishing between polyethylene grains of different densities, characterizing epoxy putties of distinct set times and evaluating the fat content percentages of milk powders, are also demonstrated. Compared with many previously published designs, the proposed design bears a simple structure and generates a B₀ magnetic field parallel to the apparatus surface, simplifying apparatus construction and simultaneously rendering the selection of the radiofrequency coil relatively flexible.     

Optical design of high performance con-focal microscopy with digital micro-mirror and stray light filters

This research proposes a newly developed stray light filter in order to eliminate stray light, which otherwise might severely reduce the performance of the con-focal microscopy presented in this research. First, an optical design for con-focal microscopy with a digital micro-mirror device (DMD) is illustrated; second, a newly developed stray light filter is presented, which functions to eliminate possible stray light and ghost images without any sacrifice of luminance. It indicates that not only can the optical system be much simplified but also that its resolution could be one step higher, because the system employs neither a pinhole nor a CCD camera lens. Experimental results are shown in the paper, demonstrating an increase in contrast of up to 60%.     

基于公众偏好大数据分析的重大突发事件应急决策方案动态调整方法

针对在重大突发事件应急过程中如何根据与其相关的公众偏好大数据信息来对事件进行划分以及确定事件风险大小等问题,提出了一种基于公众偏好大数据分析的两阶段聚类算法,将事件现场公众在社交媒体上发布的偏好大数据信息进行聚类分析,识别出多个与事件相关的子事件,并得出每个子事件的客观风险级别。然后,结合专家经验判断,综合得出每个子事件的风险级别,进而选择相对应的方案。在此基础上,根据实际突发事件多阶段演变特点,描述了应急决策中多事件多方案的动态调整过程,考虑方案之间的相关性和不同子事件调整方案对各风险级别子事件的应急处置效果、应对损失以及不同方案之间的转化成本等因素,得出不同情境下的最佳调整方案。通过案例分析说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Optimal portfolio for a defined-contribution pension plan under a constant elasticity of variance model with exponential utility

Based on the Lie symmetry method, we derive the explicit optimal invest strategy for an investor who seeks to maximize the expected exponential (CARA) utility of the terminal wealth in a defined-contribution pension plan under a constant elasticity of variance model. We examine the point symmetries of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation associated with the portfolio optimization problem. The symmetries compatible with the terminal condition enable us to transform the (2+ 1)-dimensional HJB equation into a (1+ 1)-dimensional nonlinear equation which is linearized by its infinite-parameter Lie group of point transformations. Finally, the ansatz technique based on variables separation is applied to solve the linear equation and the optimal strategy is obtained. The algorithmic procedure of the Lie symmetry analysis method adopted here is quite general compared with conjectures used in the literature.     

控藻鲢鱼的捕捞策略

鲢鱼是一种以水中浮游动植物为食的滤食性鱼类,利用鲢鱼控制蓝藻数量是一种有效的纯生物手段.分析蠡湖鲢鱼资源稳定的条件,建立鱼量的基本方程式及利润模型,给出利润与捕捞强度的关系和鱼群数量的变化趋势.最后得到了鲢鱼的放流与回捕策略.     

加速方程有偏场合下加速寿命试验的稳健设计

考虑在加速寿命试验中,当假定的加速模型不是转化应力的线性模型时,模型参数的极大似然估计的近似分布。研究在一定的条件下,获得正常应力下寿命分布的p分位寿命估计的最优稳健设计方法。并通过数值例子说明方法的有效性。     

Compromise 4<Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis></Superscript>2<Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis></Superscript> plans with clear two-factor interactions

This paper gets some necessary conditions for the existence of some kinds of clear 4^m2^n compromise plans which allow estimation of all main effects and some specified two-factor interactions without assuming the remaining two-factor interactions being negligible. Some methods for constructing clear 4^m2^n compromise plans are introduced.     

ICF靶丸装配误差检测

针对激光惯性约束聚变装置中靶丸装配误差检测困难、要求精度高的特点,研制了一套用于微靶装配参数检测的测量系统。提出了一种基于激光与CCD的复合式测量方法,建立了二者数据融合的数学模型,通过标定空间位置关系有效地把二者的测量数据融合到同一个坐标系中,从而实现了高精度三维测量。分两种情况讨论了靶丸装配误差的检测方法。实验结果验证了这两种方法的可行性,并比较了两种方法的测量精度,其极限测量误差均不超过3 m。