An interpolation approximation for the GI/G/1 queue based on multipoint Padé approximation

The performance evaluation of many complex manufacturing, communication and computer systems has been made possible by modeling them as queueing systems. Many approximations used in queueing theory have been drawn from the behavior of queues in light and heavy traffic conditions. In this paper, we propose a new approximation technique, which combines the light and heavy traffic characteristics. This interpolation approximation is based on the theory of multipoint Padé approximation which is applied at two points: light and heavy traffic. We show how this can be applied for estimating the waiting time moments of the ^GI/G/1 queue. The light traffic derivatives of any order can be evaluated using the MacLaurin series analysis procedure. The heavy traffic limits of the ^GI/G/1 queue are well known in the literature. Our technique generalizes the previously developed interpolation approximations and can be used to approximate any order of the waiting time moments. Through numerical examples, we show that the moments of the steady state waiting time can be estimated with extremely high accuracy under all ranges of traffic intensities using low orders of the approximant. We also present a framework for the development of simple analytical approximation formulas. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

AN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data-based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.     

关于双重时序AR-MA模型的相关结构及与ARMA模型的比较

本文在文［４］的基础上讨论了双重时序ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（ｑ）模型的相关结构，在不假定白噪声序列为正态的情况下，证明了安鸿志［２］关于模型的相关结构的猜想是正确的，具体地构造了ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（３）模型的相关结构，并与ＡＲＭＡ模型进行了初步的比较，给出了一些抛砖引玉的讨论．     

Self-organized critical pinball machine

The nature of self-organized criticality (SOC) is pin-pointed with a simple mechanical model: a pinball machine. Its phase space is fully parameterized by two integer variables, one describing the state of an on-going game, the other describing the state of the machine. This is the simplest possible SOC system, having only two degrees of freedom and no spatial correlations, yet is not solvable by analytical means.     

随机Taylor级数

该文对一般的随机变量序列及相当弱的系数条件研究了随机级数定义的整函数的奈望里纳特征函数，并证明了它是几乎必然无有限例外值的．     

The Spirit Is Willing: Nonlinearity, Bifurcations, and Mental Control

In recent years there has been considerable interest in the construction of nonlinear models of the dynamics of human behavior. In this exploratory article we argue that attempts at controlling problematic thoughts, emotions, or behaviors can lead to nonlinearity in mental/behavioral dynamics. We illustrate our model by fitting threshold autoregression models to self-recorded time series of the daily highs in intensity of anxiety and obsessive ruminations, kept by an individual in therapy for this problem. In our discussion, we raise the possibility that bifurcations that occur in this nonlinear model may offer insight into mental control paradoxes.     

对正项级数敛散性判别法的关系的一些探讨

先对正项级数敛生判别法的粗细与强弱问题进行了辨析，然后建立了三个有关正项级数剑散判别的命题，分别比较了三组判别法之间的强弱关系。     

n元等比级数

定义了n元等比数列、n元等比级数,给出了它们的通项公式及前n项和.并解决了多元等比级数的敛散性问题,求出了多元等比级数的和.指出了多元等比数列及多元等比级数在特殊情况下与一元等比数列及一元等比级数的一致性.     

Discrete and Continuous Time Modulated Random Walks with Heavy-Tailed Increments

We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to −∞ and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we exhibit natural conditions under which the asymptotics of the tail distribution of the overall maximum of S can be computed. We present results in discrete and in continuous time. In particular, in the absence of modulation, the process S in continuous time reduces to a Lévy process with heavy-tailed Lévy measure. A central point of the paper is that we make full use of the so-called “principle of a single big jump” in order to obtain both upper and lower bounds. Thus, the proofs are entirely probabilistic. The paper is motivated by queueing and Lévy stochastic networks.     

BERNOULLI CONVOLUTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CERTAIN NON-PISOT NUMBERS

1　IntroductionForany 0 <λ <1 ,letνλ　denotethedistributionof ∞n=0 εnλn wherethecoefficientsεnareeither0or1 ,chosenindependentlywithprobability12 foreach .Itistheinfiniteconvo lutionproductofthedistributions 12 (δ0 +δλn) ,givingrisetotheterm“infiniteBernoulliconvolution”orsimply“Bernoulliconvolution” .TheBernoulliconvolutioncanbeexpressedasaself similarmeasureνλsatisfyingtheequationνλ =12 νλ φ- 10 + 12 νλ φ- 11,( 1 .1 )whereφ0 (x) =λxand φ1(x) =λx + 1 .Thisme…