Improved customer choice predictions using ensemble methods

In this paper various ensemble learning methods from machine learning and statistics are considered and applied to the customer choice modeling problem. The application of ensemble learning usually improves the prediction quality of flexible models like decision trees and thus leads to improved predictions. We give experimental results for two real-life marketing datasets using decision trees, ensemble versions of decision trees and the logistic regression model, which is a standard approach for this problem. The ensemble models are found to improve upon individual decision trees and outperform logistic regression.     

Kinetic features of ethylene polymerization over supported catalysts [2,6‐bis(imino)pyridyl iron dichloride/magnesium dichloride] with AlR3 as an activator

The effects of polymerization temperature, polymerization time, ethylene and hydrogen concentration, and effect of comonomers (hexene‐1, propylene) on the activity of supported catalyst of composition LFeCl₂/MgCl₂‐Al(i‐Bu)₃ (L = 2,6‐bis[1‐(2,6‐dimethylphenylimino)ethyl] pyridyl) and polymer characteristics (molecular weight (MW), molecular‐weight distribution (MWD), molecular structure) have been studied. Effective activation energy of ethylene polymerization over LFeCl₂/MgCl₂‐Al(i‐Bu)₃ has a value typical of supported Ziegler–Natta catalysts (11.9 kcal/mol). The polymerization reaction is of the first order with respect to monomer at the ethylene concentration >0.2 mol/L. Addition of small amounts of hydrogen (9–17%) significantly increases the activity; however, further increase in hydrogen concentration decreases the activity. The IRS and DSC analysis of PE indicates that catalyst LFeCl₂/MgCl₂‐Al(i‐Bu)₃ has a very low copolymerizing ability toward propylene and hexene‐1. MW and MWD of PE produced over these catalysts depend on the polymerization time, ethylene and hexene‐1 concentration. The activation effect of hydrogen and other kinetic features of ethylene polymerization over supported catalysts based on the Fe (II) complexes are discussed. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 5057–5066, 2007     

Asymptotic properties of an HIV/AIDS model with a time delay

A mathematical model for HIV/AIDS with explicit incubation period is presented as a system of discrete time delay differential equations and its important mathematical features are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their local stability investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The HIV/AIDS model is numerically analysed to asses the effects of incubation period on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS and the demographic impact of the epidemic using the demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe.     

一种新的$1/f$过程小波模型

给出了一种新的二进小波1/f过程模型,从理论上证明了一类谱指数为H的近似1/f过程可通过一簇平稳随机过程产生.由于所提方法利用了1/f过程小波系数的相关性,因而有效地减少了合成1/f过程的谱误差.数值实验结果表明,新模型很好地改进了已有模型.     

On the convergence of Newton's method when estimating higher dimensional parameters

In this paper, we consider the estimation of a parameter of interest where the estimator is one of the possibly several solutions of a set of nonlinear empirical equations. Since Newton's method is often used in such a setting to obtain a solution, it is important to know whether the so obtained iteration converges to the locally unique consistent root to the aforementioned parameter of interest. Under some conditions, we show that this is eventually the case when starting the iteration from within a ball about the true parameter whose size does not depend on n. Any preliminary almost surely consistent estimate will eventually lie in such a ball and therefore provides a suitable starting point for large enough n. As examples, we will apply our results in the context of M-estimates, kernel density estimates, as well as minimum distance estimates.     

A perturbation-based heuristic for the capacitated multisource Weber problem

This paper proposes a perturbation-based heuristic for the capacitated multisource Weber problem. This procedure is based on an effective use of borderline customers. Several implementations are considered and the two most appropriate are then computationally enhanced by using a reduced neighbourhood when solving the transportation problem. Computational results are presented using data sets from the literature, originally used for the uncapacitated case, with encouraging results.     

Exciton-exciton interaction in coupled quantum wells

The exciton-exciton interaction is investigated for spatially indirect excitons in coupled quantum wells. The Hartree-Fock and Heitler-London approaches are improved by a full two-exciton calculation including the van der Waals effect. Using these potentials for the singlet and triplet channel, the two-body scattering matrix is calculated and employed to derive a modified relation between exciton density and blue shift. Such a relation is of central importance for gauging exciton densities on the way toward Bose condensation.     

Dynamic supercoiling bifurcations of growing elastic filaments

Certain bacteria form filamentous colonies when the cells fail to separate after dividing. In Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus thermus, and Cyanobacteria, the filaments can wrap into complex supercoiled structures as the cells grow. The structures may be solenoids or plectonemes, with or without branches in the latter case. Any microscopic theory of these morphological instabilities must address the nature of pattern selection in the presence of growth, for growth renders the problem nonautonomous and the bifurcations dynamic. To gain insight into these phenomena, we formulate a general theory for growing elastic filaments with bending and twisting resistance in a viscous medium, and study an illustrative model problem: a growing filament with preferred twist, closed into a loop. Growth depletes the twist, inducing a twist strain. The closure of the loop prevents the filament from unwinding back to the preferred twist; instead, twist relaxation is accomplished by the formation of supercoils. Growth also produces viscous stresses on the filament which even in the absence of twist produce buckling instabilities. Our linear stability analysis and numerical studies reveal two dynamic regimes. For small intrinsic twist the instability is akin to Euler buckling, leading to solenoidal structures, while for large twist it is like the classic writhing of a twisted filament, producing plectonemic windings. This model may apply to situations in which supercoils form only, or more readily, when axial rotation of filaments is blocked. Applications to specific biological systems are proposed.     

AdS/CFT duality at strong coupling

We study the strong-coupling limit of the AdS/CFT correspondence in the framework of a recently proposed fermionic formulation of the Bethe ansatz equations governing the gauge theory anomalous dimensions. We give examples of states that do not follow the Gubser-Klebanov-Polyakov law at a large ’t Hooft coupling λ, in contrast to recent results on the quantum string Bethe equations that are valid in that regime. This result indicates that the fermionic construction cannot be trusted at large λ, although it remains an efficient tool for computing the weak-coupling expansion of anomalous dimensions. Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 152, No. 2, pp. 213–224, August, 2007.     

III-V compound semiconductor (001) surfaces

There has been renewed interest in the structure of III-V compound semiconductor (001) surfaces caused by recent experimental and theoretical findings, which indicate that geometries different from the seemingly well-established dimer models describe the surface ground state for specific preparation conditions. I review briefly the structure information available on the (001) surfaces of GaP, InP, GaAs and InAs. These data are complemented with first-principles total-energy calculations. The calculated surface phase diagrams are used to explain the experimental data and reveal that the stability of specific surface structures depends largely on the relative size of the surface constituents. Several structural models for the Ga-rich GaAs (001)(4×6) surface are discussed, but dismissed on energetic grounds. I discuss in some detail the electronic properties of the recently proposed cation-rich GaAs (001)ζ(4×2) geometry. Received: 18 May 2001 / Revised version: 23 July 2001 / Published online: 3 April 2002