Lifetime distribution and estimation problems of consecutive-k-out-of-n:F systems

Explicit formula is given for the lifetime distribution of a consecutive-k-out-of-n:F system. It is given as a linear combination of distributions of order statistics of the lifetimes of n components. We assume that the lifetimes are independent and identically distributed. The results should make it possible to treat the parametric estimation problems based on the observations of the lifetimes of the system. In fact, we take up, as some examples, the cases where the lifetimes of the components follow the exponential, the Weibull, and the Pareto distributions, and obtain feasible estimators by moment method. In particular, it is shown that the moment estimator is quite good for the exponential case in the sense that the asymptotic efficiency is close to one.This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program (94-ISM-CRP-5).     

用POT方法估计损失分布尾部的效应分析

在再保险中,对高超额层选取及定价等问题的讨论有着重要意义,从而引出对如何选取好的统计模型来拟合大的观测值这一问题的讨论。针对这一问题,我们考虑了POT方法(peaks over thoreholdapproach),即根据极值理论(EVT),用模拟的方法对这一方法进行评价,指出了POT方法的若干优缺点陷。     

Equilibria in a proportional reinsurance market

The classical theory is adapted to the situation where the risk exchange of n insurance companies is an exchange of payments that belong to a certain linear class of random variables, for example the payments corresponding to certain layers of the aggregate claims. Similarly, a price equilibrium is considered, where the companies can purchase payments of a linear class. An example is the case where each company buys proportional coverage for its own claims and sells proportional coverage for the claims of the other companies.     

Preface to topics in data envelopment analysis

This paper serves as an introduction to a series of three papers which are directed to different aspects of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) as follows: (1) uses and extensions of window analyses' to study DEA efficiency measures with an illustrative applications to maintenance activities for U.S. Air Force fighter wings, (2) a comparison of DEA and regression approaches to identifying and estimating, sources of inefficiency by means of artificially generated data, and (3) an extension of ordinary (linear programming) sensitivity analyses to deal with special features that require attention in DEA. Background is supplied in this introductory paper with accompanying proofs and explanations to facilitate understanding of what DEA provides in the way of underpinning for the papers that follow. An attempt is made to bring readers abreast of recent progress in DEA research and uses. A synoptic history is presented along with brief references to related work, and problems requiring attention are also indicated and possible research approaches also suggested.This research was partly supported by the National Science Foundation and USARI Contract MDA 903-83-K0312, with the Center for Cybernetic Studies, the University of Texas at Austin. It was also partly supported by the IC² Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. Reproduction in whole or in part is permitted for any purpose of the U.S. Government.     

Full Nuclear Cones and a Relation Between Strong Optimization and Pareto Efficiency

In this paper we present some new and pertinent connections between the Strong Optimization and the Approximate Pareto type Efficiency, in particular, with the usual Vector Optimization, at first in the Ordered Vector Spaces by the natural Convex Cones and, afterwards, in the Ordered Hausdorff Locally Convex Spaces. The main result is obtained considering the notion of full nuclear cone. Our results, is related to an appropriate scalarization method Mathematics Subject Classification (2000). 90C29     

Saddle Points and Pareto Points in Multiple Objective Programming

In this paper relationships between Pareto points and saddle points are studied in convex and nonconvex multiple objective programming. The analysis is based on partitioning the index sets of objectives and constraints and splitting the original problem into subproblems having a special structure. The results are based on scalarizations of multiple objective programs and related linear and augmented Lagrangian functions. In the nonconvex case, a saddle point characterization of Pareto points is possible under assumptions that guarantee existence of Pareto points and stability conditions of single objective problems. Essentially, these conditions are not stronger than those in analogous results for single objective programming.This research was partially supported by ONR Grant N00014-97-1-784AMS Subject Classification: 90C29, 90C26     

Group decisions I. In arbitrary spaces of fuzzy binary relations

This article solves the problem of finding a set of group decisions that satisfy the classical Pareto unanimity principle for the case of initial data represented as fuzzy relations of individual preference. The solution proceeds from results obtained in studying the structure of convex (in the sense defined here) sets and their convex hulls. In the first part that study is carried out for spaces of arbitrary fuzzy binary relations.     

Modelling life tables with advanced ages: An extreme value theory approach

We propose a new model – we call it a smoothed threshold life table (STLT) model – to generate life tables incorporating information on advanced ages. Our method allows a smooth mortality transition from non-extreme to extreme ages, and provides objectively determined highest attained ages with which to close the life table.We proceed by modifying the threshold life table (TLT) model developed by Li et al. (2008). In the TLT model, extreme value theory (EVT) is used to make optimal use of the relatively small number of observations at high ages, while the traditional Gompertz distribution is assumed for earlier ages. Our novel contribution is to constrain the hazard function of the two-part lifetime distribution to be continuous at the changeover point between the Gompertz and EVT models. This simple but far-reaching modification not only guarantees a smooth transition from non-extreme to extreme ages, but also provides a better and more robust fit than the TLT model when applied to a high quality Netherlands dataset. We show that the STLT model also compares favourably with other existing methods, including the Gompertz–Makeham model, logistic models, Heligman–Pollard model and Coale–Kisker method, and that a further generalisation, a time-dependent dynamic smooth threshold life table (DSTLT) model, generally has superior in-sample fitting as well as better out-of-sample forecasting performance, compared, for example, with the Cairns et al. (2006) model.     

并联压力—强度模型可靠性研究

In this paper,the reliability of a parallel stress-strength model of exponentiated Pareto distribution is discussed.Different point estimations and interval estimations are proposed.The point estimators obtained are maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators.The interval estimations obtained are approximate,exact,bootstrap-p and bootstrap-t confidence intervals and Bayesian credible interval.Different methods and the corresponding confidence intervals are demonstrated using some simulation studies.     

On the simplified pair-copula construction — Simply useful or too simplistic?

Due to their high flexibility, yet simple structure, pair-copula constructions (PCCs) are becoming increasingly popular for constructing continuous multivariate distributions. However, inference requires the simplifying assumption that all the pair-copulae depend on the conditioning variables merely through the two conditional distribution functions that constitute their arguments, and not directly. In terms of standard measures of dependence, we express conditions under which a specific pair-copula decomposition of a multivariate distribution is of this simplified form. Moreover, we show that the simplified PCC in fact is a rather good approximation, even when the simplifying assumption is far from being fulfilled by the actual model.