Third-order extensions of Lo’s semiparametric bound for European call options

Computing semiparametric bounds for option prices is a widely studied pricing technique. In contrast to parametric pricing techniques, such as Monte-Carlo simulations, semiparametric pricing techniques do not require strong assumptions about the underlying asset price distribution. We extend classical results in this area. Specifically, we derive closed-form semiparametric bounds for the payoff of a European call option, given up to third-order moment (i.e., mean, variance, and skewness) information on the underlying asset price. We analyze how these bounds tighten the corresponding bounds, when only second-order moment (i.e., mean and variance) information is provided. We describe applications of these results in the context of option pricing; as well as in other areas such as inventory management, and actuarial science.     

Evaluation of insurance products with guarantee in incomplete markets

Life insurance products are usually equipped with minimum guarantee and bonus provision options. The pricing of such claims is of vital importance for the insurance industry. Risk management, strategic asset allocation, and product design depend on the correct evaluation of the written options. Also regulators are interested in such issues since they have to be aware of the possible scenarios that the overall industry will face. Pricing techniques based on the Black & Scholes paradigm are often used, however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met.To overcome Black & Scholes limitations, we develop a stochastic programming model to determine the fair price of the minimum guarantee and bonus provision options. We show that such a model covers the most relevant sources of incompleteness accounted in the financial and insurance literature. We provide extensive empirical analyses to highlight the effect of incompleteness on the fair value of the option, and show how the whole framework can be used as a valuable normative tool for insurance companies and regulators.     

生产计划中阶梯型价格原料最优配置

按照规模经济效应,商品价格会随着订购量的增大而减小(即打折).根据生产实际,本文提出了商品的阶梯型价格,建立了最优生产计划模型.该计划模型有选择性地生产能够获最大利润的产品,并且可以对生产所需的原料进行最优配置;基于最优化理论与方法,给出了求解所建模型的有效算法,通过实例验证了算法的可行性和有效性.     

Dependence properties and comparison results for Lévy processes

In this paper we investigate dependence properties and comparison results for multidimensional Lévy processes. In particular we address the questions, whether or not dependence properties and orderings of the copulas of the distributions of a Lévy process can be characterized by corresponding properties of the Lévy copula, a concept which has been introduced recently in Cont and Tankov (Financial modelling with jump processes. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, 2004) and Kallsen and Tankov (J Multivariate Anal 97:1551–1572, 2006). It turns out that association, positive orthant dependence and positive supermodular dependence of Lévy processes can be characterized in terms of the Lévy measure as well as in terms of the Lévy copula. As far as comparisons of Lévy processes are concerned we consider the supermodular and the concordance order and characterize them by orders of the Lévy measures and by orders of the Lévy copulas, respectively. An example is given that the Lévy copula does not determine dependence concepts like multivariate total positivity of order 2 or conditionally increasing in sequence. Besides these general results we specialize our findings for subfamilies of Lévy processes. The last section contains some applications in finance and insurance like comparison statements for ruin times, ruin probabilities and option prices which extends the current literature. Anja Blatter was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG).     

不同质量调整法在消费者价格指数(CPI)中的应用

传统的消费者价格指数(CPI)存在着一定的质量偏差,不能真实地反映实际价格的变化.直接比较法、交叠法、生产成本法、链接法等质量调整法的应用均有一定的局限性,且缺陷较多,均指插补调整借助于缺失值插补的原理,以同一组内商品价格的平均变化率作为质量调整系数,能有效地降低价格指数的质量偏差。Hedonic质量调整法是以实际资料建立的回归方程为基础,运用数学的手段科学的将质量变化程度加以量化,因此与传统的质量调整法相比含有较少的主观因素,为CPI指数的准确度量提供了科学的质量调整依据.     

基于网络外部性的港口FDI企业与内资港口企业博弈策略研究

将港口服务产品的网络外部性和服务质量水平引入到发货人的效用函数中,通过Hotelling价格竞争模型分析港口FDI企业与内资港口企业的博弈策略行为,分别研究在Nash和Stackelberg博弈条件下,港口服务价格、收益与网络外部性系数、服务质量水平之间的关系.理论研究的结论表明:港口FDI企业与内资港口企业在Stackelberg条件下的最优定价、均衡收益均大于Nash条件下的最优定价、均衡收益;企业最优定价随网络外部性强度线性递减,随服务水平线性递增;企业均衡收益受服务水平和网络外部性强度的影响,呈现出一定的区间变化规律,处于相同港口外部市场环境下,内资港口企业与港口FDI企业的服务策略选择和侧重点不相同.     

连续红利支付在跳扩散模型下的再装期权的定价

本文在连续时间支付红利,且股票价格服从Poisson跳-扩散过程的假设下,建立股票价格模型,并应用保险精算法给出一类奇异期权—再装期权再装一次情况下的定价公式.     

制冷装置增加夜间运行时间的性能分析

介绍了福建省目前的分时电价政策.基于冷库实例,模拟计算了制冷装置增加夜间运行时间,采用不同蓄冷运行方案的运行费用.结果显示,理想条件下冷库的运行电费可节省47.3%以上,现场调研的某冷库运行电费可减少约31%.根据气象台的逐时气象数据统计,厦门市夜间湿球温度下降1.2～1.8℃.计算表明,制冷装置夜间运行的COP因此比...     

EXISTENCE OF STOCHASTIC EQUILIBRIUM WITH INCOMPLETE FINANCIAL MARKETS

This paper analyzes the aritrage-tree security markets and the general equilibrium ex-istence problem for a stochastic economy with incomplete financial markets. Information structure is given by an event tree. This paper restricts attention to puraly financial securities. It isassume that trading takes place in the sequence of spot markets and futures markets for securi-ties payable in units of account. Unlimited short-selling in securities is allowed. Financial markets may be incomplete, some consumption streams may be impossible to obtain by any tradingstrategy. Securities may be individually precluded from trade at arbitrary states and dates. Thesecurity price process is arbitrage-free the dividend process if and only if there exists a stochaticstate price (present value) process : the present value of the security prices at every vertex isthe present value of their dividend and capital values over the set of immediate successors ; thecurrent value of each security at every vertex is the present value of its future dividend streamover all succeeding vertices. The existence of such an equilibrium is proved under the followingcondition: continuous, weakly convex, strictly monotone and complete preferences, strictlypositive endowmenta and dividends processes.     

Capacity competition of make-to-order firms

Two make-to-order firms, each modelled as a single-server queue, compete for a common stream of (potential) customers by setting their service capacities (rates) and service prices. Each customer maximizes her expected return by getting service from a firm or by balking. We completely characterize the Nash equilibrium of the competition.