非均衡理论及我国房地产市场供求的实证分析

采用非均衡分析法,对我国房地产市场供求非均衡状态进行定量判断和定性描述,并结合我国宏观经济背景寻找非均衡的原因,给出政府宏观调控的政策建议,以使非均衡程度减到最小,实现非均衡条件下资源的优化配置.     

房地产行业供需模型及调控模型的研究

首先,以房地产市场的非均衡计量经济模型为基础,得到房地产住房供需模型;然后根据"在有确定调控结果的前提下找出具体调控策略"的思想,建立了与房价、住房需求、住房供给有关的倒向常微分方程作为房地产调控模型,为政府提供倒向调控依据,并根据房地产的可持续发展模型检验调控策略的成效.     

基于对故障规律统计分析的汽车备件需求预测

汽车备件的需求与汽车故障紧密相关,文章介绍了一种在对汽车故障进行统计分析并确定其分布规律的基础上预测备件需求的方法,预测中需要结合整车保有量的历史数据以及故障与备件的对应表。用统计的方法对某型客车的故障信息进行分析,认为故障的规律可用四种典型的分布进行描述。实例验证了这种方法的准确性高于传统方法,并且在计算机的辅助下可以方便操作。     

果蝇优化最小二乘支持向量机混合预测模型—以我国物流需求量预测为例

为解决最小二乘支持向量机参数设置的盲目性,利用果蝇优化算法对其参数进行优化选择,进而构建了果蝇优化最小二乘支持向量机混合预测模型.以我国物流需求量预测为例,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性.实例验证结果表明:与单一最小二乘支持向量机和模拟退火算法优化最小二乘支持向量机预测模型相比,该模型不仅能够有效选择参数值,而且预测精度更高.     

路段容量约束弹性需求交通均衡分配近似算法

本文研究了带路段容量约束弹性需求用户均衡交通分配问题及其近似解法.采用超需求模型将弹性需求转化为固定需求,提出了一种带路段容量约束弹性需求用户均衡交通分配近似算法.该算法在迭代过程中,通过不断自适应调节排队延误因子、误差因子来近似真实路段行驶时间,使路段流量逐步满足约束条件,最终达到广义用户均衡.这种方法克服了容量约束弹性需求用户均衡分配计算量大及随机分配法要求枚举所有路径的困难.随后证明了算法的收敛性,并对一个小型路网进行了数值试验.     

不同价格模式下考虑需求波动性和差异化服务的网约车平台定价决策

针对单个平台两种品牌网约车的最优定价问题,考虑平台服务质量的差异化和市场需求波动性,分别建立动态价格、差异化价格和静态价格模式下的网约车动态服务模型,运用多元函数和泛函的条件极值求得两种品牌网约车的最优定价策略。研究发现,平台最优动态价格和差异化价格均随需求波动时长单调变化,而最优静态价格并非单调。此外,平台提高差异化服务时,两种品牌网约车的最优价格均提高,但高服务质量的网约车会有更高的提价幅度;固定佣金报酬率增大时,平台最优价格均提高,但边际损失成本较大的网约车会有更高的提价幅度。最后,通过数值仿真对不同价格模式下的平台利润进行比较和灵敏度分析,并发现平台利润在市场需求稳定时差异不大。     

服务水平约束下双需求类静态配给策略

考虑一个周期盘点、无限期、缺货回补、双需求类的库存系统,其中高优先级需求的目标服务水平较高。系统采用基准库存策略补充库存,依据静态配给策略分配库存,即优先满足高优先级需求,仅当持有库存水平不低于固定配给阈值时满足低优先级需求。优化目标是在服务水平约束下最小化期望库存持有量。为提升计算效率,引入“预留库存假设”,即允许通过提高低优先级需求缺货水平的方式补充库存,使得期末持有库存水平不低于本期高优先级需求缺货水平与固定配给阈值之和。基于预留库存假设,给出两类需求服务水平和期望库存持有量的解析表达式,证明上述绩效指标关于控制参数的单调性,刻画满足服务水平约束的控制参数可行域,得到原系统最优控制参数的近似求解算法。算例分析表明,基于预留库存假设的绩效衡量方法和参数求解算法准确性好且计算效率高。     

A Universal Biofilm Reactor Sensor for the Determination of Biochemical Oxygen Demand of Different Water Areas

In this study, we developed a simple strategy to prepare a biofilm reactor (BFR) sensor for the universal biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) determination. The microorganisms in fresh water were domesticated by artificial seawater with different salinity gradients successively to prepare the BFR sensor. The prepared BFR sensor exhibits an efficient ability to degrade a variety of organic substances. The linear range of BOD determination by the BFR sensor is 1.0–10.0 mg/L⁻¹ with a correlation coefficient of 0.9951. The detection limit is 0.30 mg/L according to three times of signal-to-noise ratio. What is more, the BFR sensor displayed excellent performances for the BOD determination of different water samples, including both fresh water and seawater. The 16S-rRNA gene sequencing technology was used to analyze the microbial species before and after the domestication. The results show that it is a general approach for the rapid BOD determination in different water samples.     

基于协整理论和干预分析的中国电力需求预测

本文采用协整与误差纠正模型技术研究了我国电力需求与经济增长之间的关系,检验了电力需求与国内生产总值、人口、价格和结构变量之间的长期均衡关系,并结合干预分析的方法修正了由经济环境的改变和突发事件引起的预测偏差。结果表明通过矫正的预测结果大大减小了误差,其预测的我国未来电力需求量与国家发改委宏观经济研究院信息中心课题组公布的结果较为接近。     

Mussel-inspired chemistry in producing mechanically robust and bioactive hydrogels as skin dressings

The development of hydrogels as skin dressings demonstrates a great potential in real life applications. To achieve this, the hydrogel has to conquer its natural poor mechanical strength, and to prolong its lifetime, antifatigue and self-healing properties originating from dynamic interactions are also required. As skin dressings, the hydrogel needs to maintain its ductility while pursuing the above mentioned properties. In this work, poly(ethylene glycol) diacrylate is used to produce skin dressings by reinforcing poly(ethylene glycol) diacrylate/alginate double network hydrogels with a crosslinker from mussel-inspired chemistry, which is 3,4-dihydroxy-l-phenylalanine. This crosslinking methodology significantly improved mechanical strength of the hydrogel, with 11,200% increase in compressive failure strength; it endowed the hydrogel with outstanding antifatigue and training strengthening properties that makes its mechanical strength increasing in a 50 cycles compressive test; the hydrogel showed excellent self-healing properties that in rheological characterization; it also displayed enhanced storage modulus after withstanding a shear strain up to 1100%; meanwhile, the hydrogel exhibited extreme ductility with an elastic modulus of only 10.90–16.53 kPa. 3,4-dihydroxy-l-phenylalanine also renders the hydrogel its inherent antioxidant activity, conductivity, and bioadhesiveness. Together with the highly transparent appearance, the hydrogels possess a great potential and practibility in the fields of skin dressings.