Delivery performance in vendor selection decisions

Increased reliance upon outsourcing has made the issue of vendor selection even more critical to the success of the modern manufacturing organization. The usual performance measure on which selection is based has been the distribution of the vendor’s delivery lead-time (LT), often as characterized by the mean and variance. In this paper, we show that the distribution of demand per unit time (DPUT) must also be considered if an optimal decision is to be made.     

Uncertainty of chemical oxygen demand determination in wastewater samples

 The measurement uncertainty of the result of chemical oxygen demand determination in wastewater was evaluated. The major sources of uncertainty of the result of measurement were identified as the purity of reagents, volumetric operations, gravimetric operations, bias, and the repeatability of the method. Identification and evaluation of uncertainty sources was followed by combined uncertainty calculations. The combined uncertainty was compared to the experimentally determined variation and good agreement was found, indicating that the major uncertainty sources had been identified. The results show that the major sources of uncertainty arose from repeatability at high concentration level and volumetric steps at low concentration level, thus revealing the target operations for reducing the measurement uncertainty of this determination. Received: 5 August 2002 Accepted: 5 November 2002 Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Sport of the Republic of Slovenia (Project Z2–3530). Presented at CERMM-3, Central European Reference Materials and Measurements Conference: The function of reference materials in the measurement process, May 30–June 1, 2002, Rogaška Slatina, Slovenia Correspondence to A. Drolc     

Joint pricing and inventory control with a Markovian demand model

We consider the joint pricing and inventory control problem for a single product over a finite horizon and with periodic review. The demand distribution in each period is determined by an exogenous Markov chain. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. The surplus costs as well as fixed and variable costs are state dependent. We show the existence of an optimal (s, S, p)-type feedback policy for the additive demand model. We extend the model to the case of emergency orders. We compute the optimal policy for a class of Markovian demand and illustrate the benefits of dynamic pricing over fixed pricing through numerical examples. The results indicate that it is more beneficial to implement dynamic pricing in a Markovian demand environment with a high fixed ordering cost or with high demand variability.     

生产率、需求率、变质率及损失率均随时间变化的生产库存模型

建立了生产率、需求率、变质率及损失率均随时间变化的生产库存模型,在假定了(I)变质率线性依赖于时间及库存开始点;(II)损失率线性依赖于时间及短缺量拖后供货的结束点的前提下,给出了寻求最优策略的方法,指出了文[10]中不合理的假设,并以实际的例子与已有结果作比较,其结果为生产管理部门的决策提供了理论依据.     

A Low Order Nonconforming Mixed Finite Element Method for Non-Stationary Incompressible Magnetohydrodynamics System

A low order nonconforming mixed finite element method (FEM) is established for the fully coupled non-stationary incompressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) problem in a bounded domain in 3D. The lowest order finite elements on tetrahedra or hexahedra are chosen to approximate the pressure, the velocity field and the magnetic field, in which the hydrodynamic unknowns are approximated by inf-sup stable finite element pairs and the magnetic field by $H^1(\Omega)$-conforming finite elements, respectively. The existence and uniqueness of the approximate solutions are shown. Optimal order error estimates of $L^2(H^1)$-norm for the velocity field, $L^2(L^2)$-norm for the pressure and the broken $L^2(H^1)$-norm for the magnetic field are derived.     

运用系统动力学模型预测稀土战略储备规模

基于全球稀土资源的供需形势和中国稀土资源减少的趋势,运用系统动力学的模型来预测未来17年我国稀土资源储备量。选取了2000~2013的生产和消费数据,通过定量模拟计算中国稀土供需差波动系数,设计了稀土资源供需差波动范围分别为0%,20%的两个方案,模拟计算了两个方案的年储备量、累计储备量和储备量绝对值。方案一范围是(-0%,+0%),仿真预测出稀土未来17年累积储备量为720551 t,即战略储备规模达到720551 t,该方案下不论供需差发生如何波动,国家都会进行储备或释放调节;方案二范围是(-20%,+20%),预测出未来17年战略储备规模为461331 t,国家只需在这个范围外进行收储释放调节,从而调节市场供求,降低价格波动幅度。本文从不同供需差的波动系数来模拟计算储备量,目的是为国家相关部门在进行稀土储备决策时提供参考,可以根据我国经济景气状况和供需形势,以及稀土产业发展状况,进行不同规模的稀土储备。     

“禁摩限电”效果综合评价模型

将交通需求级别进行划分后,通过数据包络分析法计算交通需求匹配度和交通运行效率,近乎绝对细化交通运行表现,依据具有时间轴的四维交通状况模拟建立了全新多维度的交通评价体系。此外,利用模糊层次分析法确定道路交通安全评价指标体系中各个指标的权重,同时作出基于差异驱动原理的综合评价。最后,将交通的污染指标提炼为机动车的排放指标和电动车的耗电指标来衡量交通工具对环境的影响。     

基于向后逐步回归模型的我国农机需求特征及影响因素研究

以2004-2014年数据为样本,以农机总动力为因变量,以农机购置补贴、农机价格、农机作业服务价格、农户人均纯收入、农产品价格、农业劳动力数量和农作物播种总面积为自变量构建了我国农机需求影响因素的回归方程,向后逐步回归结果表明:(1)除农作物播种总面积、农机作业服务价格、农产品价格之外,其余变量对农机总动力的影响均统计上显著;(2)农机购置补贴、农机价格指数、农户人均纯收入及农业劳动力四个变量对农机需求的弹性系数分别为0.027、-0.004、0.457、0.474。最后根据研究结果提出加大与落实农机购置补贴、规范农机价格、培育新型经营主体、加速土地规范流转等政策建议。     

碳税政策下时变需求依赖库存与价格的供应链协调模型

研究由一个供应商和一个零售组成的二级供应链系统在碳税政策下的协调问题.对于市场需求率为时变函数且依赖于当前库存水平和销售价格的情形,建立分散式和集中式供应链决策模型.比较两种模型得出供应商和零售商合作能够提高供应链的整体利润但是也会产生更多的碳排放.分别利用批发价格契约和两部收费契约协调分散式决策模型得出供应链协调的条件.最后通过数值算例验证理论结果并分析碳税单价对供应链在两部收费契约下实现协调的影响.     

Stochastic optimization of an urban rail timetable under time‐dependent and uncertain demand

Urban rail planning is extremely complex, mainly because it is a decision problem under different uncertainties. In practice, travel demand is generally uncertain, and therefore, the timetabling decisions must be based on accurate estimation. This research addresses the optimization of train timetable at public transit terminals of an urban rail in a stochastic setting. To cope with stochastic fluctuation of arrival rates, a two‐stage stochastic programming model is developed. The objective is to construct a daily train schedule that minimizes the expected waiting time of passengers. Due to the high computational cost of evaluating the expected value objective, the sample average approximation method is applied. The method provided statistical estimations of the optimality gap as well as lower and upper bounds and the associated confidence intervals. Numerical experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the solution method.