食用豆腐生产经营过程中区间决策问题的研究

研究了豆腐作坊生产经营豆腐的最优决策问题.深入的实际调研表明:随着自然环境的改变、生产条件和市场资源的变化,豆腐作坊的净收益表现出不确定性.于是豆腐作坊的最优净收益就呈现出区间的特性.以豆腐作坊最优净收益为目标,首先建立了两大区间决策模型-改变生产规模的区间决策模型和不改变生产规模的区间决策模型.其次给出了有关区间决策的基本定理及求解方法.最后对实际问题进行了求解,从而为豆腐作坊提供了最优净收益的范围—区间,并对求得的结果进行了分析,说明所给的求解方法及所得结论是正确的.     

基于群决策模糊聚类和模糊神经网络的建筑分包商选择研究

把建筑分包商的选择分为两个阶段,包括预选择阶段和决策选择阶段,并分别建立了两个阶段的评价准则体系.然后,基于群决策模糊聚类、群决策模糊神经网络两种模型和方法,给出了建筑分包商预选择和决策选择的具体实施步骤.最后的实证分析表明,对于建筑分包商的选择,该选择过程是实用和有效的.     

区域经济发展策略的数学模型及实证分析

区域经济的发展受许多不同因素的影响,结合江苏省如皋市的社会经济发展的特点,选取总产值指标、农业指标、工业指标、固定资产指标和科技交通指标为经济指标,基于灰色关联度分析方法建立数学模型,对如皋市的区域经济发展进行了简要优势分析,并通过MATLAB程序设计进行仿真计算,构建地方经济发展的投资决策系统,研究如皋市区域经济的发展状况,以期能为区域经济发展政策提供参考依据,从而提升政府的理性投资决策能力,促进地方经济和社会的全面发展.     

A lexicographical compromise method for multiple criteria group decision problems with imprecise information

This paper addresses multiple criteria group decision making problems where each group member offers imprecise information on his/her preferences about the criteria. In particular we study the inclusion of this partial information in the decision problem when the individuals’ preferences do not provide a vector of common criteria weights and a compromise preference vector of weights has to be determined as part of the decision process in order to evaluate a finite set of alternatives. We present a method where the compromise is defined by the lexicographical minimization of the maximum disagreement between the value assigned to the alternatives by the group members and the evaluation induced by the compromise weights.     

Self-consistency of decision rules for group decision making

The author treats, in this paper, a group of decision makers, where each of them already has preference on a given set of alternatives but the group as a whole does not have a decision rule to make their group decision, yet. Then, the author examines which decision rules are appropriate. As a criterion of “appropriateness” the author proposes the concepts of self-consistency and universal self-consistency of decision rules. Examining the existence of universally self-consistent decision rules in two cases: (1) decision situations with three decision makers and two alternatives, and (2) those with three decision makers and three alternatives, the author has found that all decision rules are universally self-consistent in the case (1), whereas all universally self-consistent decision rules have one and just one vetoer in the essential cases in (2). The result in the case (2) implies incompatibility of universal self-consistency with symmetry. An example of applications of the concept of self-consistency to a bankruptcy problem is also provided in this paper, where compatibility of self-consistency with symmetry in a particular decision situation is shown.     

Multicriteria decision support methodologies for auditing decisions: The case of qualified audit reports in the UK

All UK companies are required by company law to prepare financial statements that must comply with law and accounting standards. With the exception of very small companies, financial accounts must then be audited by UK registered auditors who must express an opinion on whether these statements are free from material misstatements, and have been prepared in accordance with legislation and relevant accounting standards (unqualified opinion) or not (qualified opinion). The objective of the present study is to explore the potentials of developing multicriteria decision aid models for reproducing, as accurately as possible, the auditors’ opinion on the financial statements of the firms. A sample of 625 company audited years with qualified statements and 625 ones with unqualified financial statements over the period 1998–2003 from 823 manufacturing private and public companies is being used in contrast to most of the previous works in the UK that have mainly focused on very small or very large public companies. Furthermore, the models are being developed and tested using the walk-forward approach as opposed to previous studies that employ simple holdout tests or resampling techniques. Discriminant analysis and logit analysis are also used for comparison purposes. The out-of-time and out-of-sample testing results indicate that the two multicriteria decision aid techniques achieve almost equal classification accuracies and are both more efficient than discriminant and logit analysis.     

Linear programming with fuzzy parameters: An interactive method resolution

This paper proposes a method for solving linear programming problems where all the coefficients are, in general, fuzzy numbers. We use a fuzzy ranking method to rank the fuzzy objective values and to deal with the inequality relation on constraints. It allows us to work with the concept of feasibility degree. The bigger the feasibility degree is, the worst the objective value will be. We offer the decision-maker (DM) the optimal solution for several different degrees of feasibility. With this information the DM is able to establish a fuzzy goal. We build a fuzzy subset in the decision space whose membership function represents the balance between feasibility degree of constraints and satisfaction degree of the goal. A reasonable solution is the one that has the biggest membership degree to this fuzzy subset. Finally, to illustrate our method, we solve a numerical example.     

Decision-theoretic harmony: A first step

This paper presents a novel harmony generation method based on decision-theoretic planning. We are the first to model music generation using Markov decision processes (MDPs). We give a proof of concept for this approach by using MDP planning to generate four-part harmony, given the melody or soprano line. Our initial results show feasibility, and show the variance possible, depending on the choice of reward functions.     

基于Vague集的群决策方法研究

首先介绍了Vague集的基本概念,将直觉模糊集的一些运算规则重新在Vague集上作了定义,提出用Vague值表示的九级语言术语集.接着指出衡量Vague集(值)相似度要考虑的三个因素,提出了新的度量方法.在同时考虑专家决策结果的一致性和专家权重的基础上,提出了汇总各专家Vague意见的方法.最后以一个案例说明了所提出的方法.     

Analytic network process in supplier selection: A case study in an electronic firm

Supplier selection, which is the first step of the activities in the product realization process starting from the purchasing of material till to the end of delivering the products, is evaluated as a critical factor for the companies desiring to be successful in nowadays competition conditions. With the scope of this paper, supplier selection was considered as a multi criteria decision problem. A model aiming the usage of analytic network process (ANP) in supplier selection is developed owning to the evaluation of the relations between supplier selection criterias in a feedback systematic. The proposed model is implemented in a company of electronic.