可再生能源配额制与碳排放权交易并行实施的政策效果

中国将同时实施可再生能源配额制与碳排放权交易,并以售电商为配额制的考核主体。本文建立两级供应链模型分析两者相互作用的政策效果。研究结果表明,引入碳排放权交易将导致火电价格上涨与可再生能源电力价格下降,有利于实现两者在同一价格水平竞争。然而,碳排放权交易亦将造成零售电价上涨,电力需求减少,且变化幅度与碳排放权价格和减排成本成正比。若配额比例与售电商差异性提高,在不影响环境成本内化于火电批发价格的同时,可降低售电商的转嫁成本。从而减小了可再生能源电力价格降幅与零售电价涨幅,并平抑碳排放权价格与减排成本上涨造成的电价与需求波动。     

债券投资组合业绩归因的多期实证研究

目前国内对投资组合的业绩归因研究主要从管理者层面着手,将超额收益的来源归结为择时能力和选股能力,但这并不适用于债券投资。本文基于Campisi模型,对债券定价公式进行分解,从债券自身的特性来研究组合的超额收益来源,并结合GRAP跨期处理方法,形成多期业绩归因模型,对长期债券投资组合进行归因分析。相对于单期的归因模型,多期归因模型可以对任意一段时间内投资组合的超额收益进行归因,而不是单期归因项的简单加总。本文以中证全债指数为基准组合,对32只债券构成的投资组合进行实证研究,结果表明模型符合市场情况和实际操作情况。因此本文提出的多期业绩归因研究具有实用性。     

基于风险-均值分析的供应商选择与订单分配集成优化模型与求解

针对不确定环境下具有不同供应合约的供应商选择与订单分配问题,本文构建了基于风险-均值分析的模糊两阶段多周期集成优化模型。与传统的该问题研究并未充分考虑供应商选择与订单分配两阶段决策的交互影响不同,在该模型中,第一阶段供应商选择的评价目标依赖于后期实际运营中的订单分配决策;并考虑未来需求和实际运营成本的不确定性,引入在险价值和期望值两种决策准则对供应商选择方案的绩效进行评价。提出了该模型的分析求解方法,在险价值得以精确评估,期望值被控制在确定的误差范围内,并可以达到足够的精度要求。     

Injection attack detection using machine learning for smart IoT applications

Smart cities are a rapidly growing IoT application. These smart cities mainly rely on wireless sensors to connect their different components (smart devices) together. Smart cities rely on the integration of IoT and 5G technologies, and this has created a demand for a massive IoT network of connected devices. The data traffic coming from indoor wireless networks (e.g., smart homes, smart hospitals, smart factories , or smart school buildings) contributes to over 80% of the total data traffic of the current IoT network. As smart cities and their applications grow, security and privacy challenges have become a major concern for billions of IoT smart devices. One reason for this could be the oversight of handling security issues of IoT devices by their manufacturers, which enables attackers to exploit the vulnerabilities in these devices by performing different types of attacks, e.g., DDoS and injection attacks. Intrusion detection is one way to detect and mitigate the risk of such attacks. In this paper, an intrusion detection method was proposed to detect injection attacks in IoT applications (e.g. smart cities). In this method, two types of feature selection techniques (constant removal and recursive feature elimination) were used and tested by a number of machine learning classifiers (i.e., SVM, Random Forest, and Decision Tree). The T-Test was conducted to evaluate the quality of this proposed feature selection method. Using the public dataset, AWID, the evaluation results showed that the decision tree classifier can be used to detect injection attacks with an accuracy of 99% using only 8 features, which were selected using the proposed feature selection method. Also, the comparison with the most related work showed the advantages of the proposed intrusion detection method.     

绿色产品零售企业与市场消费者策略选择演化分析

线上线下结合营销模式有效缓解了流通渠道不畅和营销方式单一的问题,进而促进绿色产品消费。在相关假设的基础上,通过构建绿色产品零售企业和市场消费者的演化博弈模型,重现博弈主体的动态演进过程。研究结果表明,在线上线下结合营销模式中,绿色产品零售企业与消费者演化博弈系统存在两个可能的均衡状态,分别是O{维持传统营销策略,使用传统渠道购买产品}、C{建立线上营销策略,使用线上渠道购买产品}。演化博弈系统的演进受到9个相关因素的干扰,这些因素通过影响博弈主体的收益、成本及潜在的风险损失等发生作用。在理论推导的基础上,以被调研的A绿色产品零售企业为样本进行数值模拟,验证理论推导的正确性,给出上述影响因素的作用强度。     

Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

证券数增加情形下证券组合有效边缘特征灵敏度分析

本文较为详细地讨论了当证券市场不存在无风险收益证券且允许卖空时证券数的增加对 M-V证券组合有效边缘及其特征的影响 ,给出了有效边缘、渐近线斜率、全局最小方差证券组合及其协方差、最小方差证券组合的投资权数等的变化模式     

度量射影的连续选择

本文讨论了集值映射的弱连续选择并应用于度量射影．设Y是Banach空间X的子空间且Y是可分的,在相差一个第一纲集的情况下,于弱拓扑下,支撑于Y上的度量射影是下半连续的并有连续选择．     

组合投资β调整与效用最大化的套期比的选择

为了针对市场风险对风险资产的组合投资进行套期保值，一般认为要选择将组合投资多头和期货合同空头结合起来的头寸方差最小化的套期保值比率，也就是要选择使某一特定函数的期望效用最大化的套期保值比率。但是本认为，由于种种原因，人们更倾向于选择对简单风险最小头寸的套期保值比率。     

Steiner选择和算子的集值扩张(Ⅱ)——对逼近理论的应用

在(Ⅰ)的基础上,得出对集值函数逼近理论的某些应用:Korovkin型定理,一种将经典逼近算子扩张到集值族的方法,以及Jackson估算.