A Note on Convergence of the Equi-Energy Sampler

This paper studies maximum likelihood estimation for a parameterised elliptic diffusion in a manifold. The focus is on asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimates obtained from continuous time observation. These are well known when the underlying manifold is a Euclidean space. However, no systematic study exists in the case of a general manifold. The starting point is to write down the likelihood function and equation. This is achieved using the tools of stochastic differential geometry. Consistency, asymptotic normality and asymptotic optimality of maximum likelihood estimates are then proved, under regularity assumptions. Numerical computation of maximum likelihood estimates is briefly discussed.     

基于马尔可夫决策过程的医疗检查预约优化模型

医技部门的医疗检查如电子计算机断层扫描（CT）、核磁共振成像设备（MRI）、X射线（X－rays）常常有如下三种病人类型：门诊病人、住院病人和急诊病人。针对不同病人类型的需求特点，运用马尔可夫决策过程原理和动态规划方法，建立了医疗检查设备的预约优化模型，并证明了模型的最优性质，得出了不同病人类型的最优预约策略。数值算例的结果表明：本文的预约策略不仅易于实施，而且，通过该模型获得的最大收益比按传统先来先预约的模式所获得的收益要大。     

Mixing time of an unaligned Gibbs sampler on the square

The paper concerns a particular example of the Gibbs sampler and its mixing efficiency. Coordinates of a point are rerandomized in the unit square ${[0,1]}^2$ to approach a stationary distribution with density proportional to $exp(?A^2{(u?v)}^2)$ for $(u,v)\in {[0,1]}^2$ with some large parameter $A$.Diaconis conjectured the mixing time of this process to be $O\left(A^2\right)$ which we confirm in this paper. This improves on the currently known $O(exp\left(A^2\right))$ estimate.     

Continuum versus discrete networks,graph Laplacians,and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces

Motivated by applications to machine learning, we construct a reversible and irreducible Markov chain whose state space is a certain collection of measurable sets of a chosen l.c.h. space $\mathfrak{X}$. We study the resulting network (connected undirected graph), including transience, Royden and Riesz decompositions, and kernel factorization. We describe a construction for Hilbert spaces of signed measures which comes equipped with a new notion of reproducing kernels and there is a unique solution to a regularized optimization problem involving the approximation of $L^2$ functions by functions of finite energy. The latter has applications to machine learning (for Markov random fields, for example).     

Optimal strategy of vaccination and treatment in an SIRS model with Markovian switching

Medical treatment and vaccination decisions are often sequential and uncertain. Markov decision process is an appropriate means to model and handle such stochastic dynamic decisions. This paper studies the near‐optimality of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model that incorporates vaccination and saturated treatment with regime switching. The stochastic model takes white noises and color noise into account. We first prove some priori estimates of the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations. Moreover, we establish some sufficient and necessary conditions of the near‐optimality by Pontryagin stochastic maximum principle. Our results show that the two kinds of environmental noises have great impacts on the infectious diseases. Finally, we illustrate our conclusions through numerical simulations.     

The survival probability of critical and subcritical branching processes in finite state space Markovian environment

Let ${\left(Z_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ be a branching process in a random environment defined by a Markov chain ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ with values in a finite state space $\mathbb{X}$. Let ${\mathbb{P}}_i$ be the probability law generated by the trajectories of ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ starting at $X_0=i\in \mathbb{X}.$ We study the asymptotic behaviour of the joint survival probability ${\mathbb{P}}_i\left(Z_n>0,X_n=j\right)$, $j\in \mathbb{X}$ as $n\to +\infty$ in the critical and strongly, intermediate and weakly subcritical cases.     

Persistence of sums of correlated increments and clustering in cellular automata

Let $T$ be the first return time to $(?\infty ,0]$ of sums of increments given by a functional of a stationary Markov chain. We determine the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability, $\mathbb{P}(T\ge t)～C{t}^{?1∕2}$ for an explicit constant $C$. Our analysis is based on a connection between the survival probability and the running maximum of the time-reversed process, and relies on a functional central limit theorem for Markov chains. As applications, we recover known clustering results for the 3-color cyclic cellular automaton and the Greenberg–Hastings model, and we prove a new clustering result for the 3-color firefly cellular automaton.