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11.
The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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在国家863CIMS目标产品CAPPFramework系统的基础上,研究了面向对象的信息建模技术、信息模型驱动的所见即所得工艺设计技术、工作流技术.并在此基础上进行集成化、智能化计算机辅助工艺设计(CAPP)的应用与开发,实现了工艺设计的自动化,基本达到了在信息集成基础上的工艺设计与工艺信息管理一体化的目的,对企业的CAPP实施具有一定的参考价值. 相似文献
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本文提出的MMD算法用于提高模型区别错误信息和正确信息的能力.利用该算法在对模型的参数进行重估计时.涉及到复杂的目标函数的梯度运算.击运用矩阵运算使得梯度运算变得简单明了,因此本文给出了MMD算法下的HMM参数重估计的矩阵表示形式并给出了证明. 相似文献
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The control of piecewise-deterministic processes is studied where only local boundedness of the data is assumed. Moreover the discount rate may be zero. The value function is shown to be solution to the Bellman equation in a weak sense; however the solution concept is strong enough to generate optimal policies. Continuity and compactness conditions are given for the existence of nonrelaxed optimal feedback controls. 相似文献
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In this paper, we study the stability conditions of the MMAP[K]/G[K]/1/LCFS preemptive repeat queue. We introduce an embedded Markov chain of matrix M/G/1 type with a tree structure and identify conditions for the Markov chain to be ergodic. First, we present three conventional methods for the stability problem of the queueing system of interest. These methods are either computationally demanding or do not provide accurate information for system stability. Then we introduce a novel approach that develops two linear programs whose solutions provide sufficient conditions for stability or instability of the queueing system. The new approach is numerically efficient. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods introduced in this paper are analyzed both theoretically and numerically. 相似文献
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胡迪鹤 《数学物理学报(B辑英文版)》2005,25(1):23-29
This paper is a continuation of [8]. In Section 1, three kinds of communication are introdnced for two states and the relations among them are investigated. In Section 2, two kinds of period of a state are introdnced and it is obtained that the period is a “class property” ,i.e. two states x and y belong to same class implies the period of x is equal to the period of y. 相似文献
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