青岛港货运吞吐量的时间序列模型

运用时间序列分析方法对时间序列建立ARMA,ARIMA模型.搜集了青岛港1999年1月～2003年5月的货运吞吐量数据,对进行分析,建立了青岛港货运吞吐量的模型.通过预留的部分数据对模型进行检验,并对模型的残差进行检验,得出模型比较合理.     

Semicontinuity and Quasiconvex Functions

Criteria are derived for quasiconvex functions under lower semicontinuity and upper semicontinuity conditions. The results thus obtained generalize earlier results for convex functions. We also give new conditions under which a given function is r-convex in the sense given by Avriel.     

AN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data-based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.     

Preparation and characterization of dendrimer-star PNIPAAM using dithiobenzoate-terminated PPI dendrimer via RAFT polymerization

Two dendritic reversible addition-fragmentation transfer (RAFT) agents with 8 and 16 terminal dithiobenzoate (DTB) groups on the surface of poly(propylene imine) (PPI) dendrimers (generation 2.0 and 3.0, respectively) were successively prepared, and they were used in the RAFT polymerization of N-isopropylacrylamide (NIPAAM). The polymerization kinetics was confirmed to pseudo-first-order behavior. The ¹H NMR and GPC analyses show that the dendrimer-star den (NIPAAM)_x (x = 8 or 16) prepared by RAFT method has well-defined structure, controlled molecular weight and low polydispersities (PDI < 1.3). The aqueous solution prepared from dendrimer-star PNIPAAM showed reversible changes in optical properties: transparent below a lower critical solution temperature (LCST) and opaque above the LCST.     

Discussion of Some Problems About Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using v-Support Vector Machine

Some problems in using v-support vector machine (v-SVM) for the prediction of nonlinear time series are discussed. The problems include selection of various net parameters, which affect the performance of prediction, mixture of kernels, and decomposition cooperation linear programming v-SVM regression, which result in improvements of the algorithm. Computer simulations in the prediction of nonlinear time series produced by Mackey-Glass equation and Lorenz equation provide some improved results.     

粗糙线性空间

将粗糙集思想引入到线性空间。提出线性空间中子集的上近似和下近似的概念,给出上、下粗线性子空间与上、下粗不变子空间的概念,讨论粗糙集线性空间的有关性质。     

Forecasting COVID-19 Epidemic Trends by Combining a Neural Network with Rt Estimation

On 31 December 2019, a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology was reported in Wuhan (China). The cases were declared to be Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO). COVID-19 has been defined as SARS Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Some countries, e.g., Italy, France, and the United Kingdom (UK), have been subjected to frequent restrictions for preventing the spread of infection, contrary to other ones, e.g., the United States of America (USA) and Sweden. The restrictions afflicted the evolution of trends with several perturbations that destabilized its normal evolution. Globally, Rt has been used to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Methods: This paper presents a solution based on Deep Learning (DL) for the analysis and forecasting of epidemic trends in new positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). It combined a neural network (NN) and an Rt estimation by adjusting the data produced by the output layer of the NN on the related Rt estimation. Results: Tests were performed on datasets related to the following countries: Italy, the USA, France, the UK, and Sweden. Positive case registration was retrieved between 24 February 2020 and 11 January 2022. Tests performed on the Italian dataset showed that our solution reduced the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by 28.44%, 39.36%, 22.96%, 17.93%, 28.10%, and 24.50% compared to other ones with the same configuration but that were based on the LSTM, GRU, RNN, ARIMA (1,0,3), and ARIMA (7,2,4) models, or an NN without applying the Rt as a corrective index. It also reduced MAPE by 17.93%, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 34.37%, and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 43.76% compared to the same model without the adjustment performed by the Rt. Furthermore, it allowed an average MAPE reduction of 5.37%, 63.10%, 17.84%, and 14.91% on the datasets related to the USA, France, the UK, and Sweden, respectively.     

用数字毫伏表测量RLC串联电路相频特性

在论述RLC串联谐振电路和并联谐振电路原理的基础上,提出用数字毫伏表测量RLC串联谐振电路相频特性曲线的方法,并将测量结果与传统示波器测量方法比较,分析误差产生的原因是由于电感器交流内阻的影响所致。     

通过有光阑近轴ABCD光学系统激光束的近似解析传输公式

用傅立叶级数展开法研究光束通过有光阑限制的近轴ABCD光学系统的传输特性,导出了光阑透射率函数不同时的传输公式。硬边光阑的情况可作为其它光阑的特例得到,其它光阑也可视作硬边光阑来处理。数值计算表明了该方法快速的优点,并得到与用Collins公式直接积分一致结果。     

Anion effects on the phase transition of N‐isopropylacrylamide hydrogels

NMR spectra were collected for poly(N‐isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAAm) hydrogel using high‐resolution magic angle spinning (HRMAS) after gel pieces were hydrated in the presence of D₂O, NaF, NaCl, and NaI aqueous solutions. Changes in the peak height intensity of the spectra provide quantitative insight into the phase transition process. The thermodynamic values of the phase transition were calculated using a van't Hoff analysis of the NMR data. Unlike the trend observed for decreases in the (LCST), changes in the enthalpy and entropy did not clearly display a linear dependence with respect to salt concentration. Rather, it was observed that increases in salt concentration did not affect the enthalpy and entropy to the extent as the initial change observed between no salt and 100 mM solutions. Finally, the effect of salts on the hysteresis of the rehydrating process was observed. Hysteresis occurs due to the need for hydrophobic interactions to break down before water is able to infiltrate the polymer matrix. NaF stabilizes hydrophobic interactions while NaI destabilize hydrophobic interactions, causing them to break down at higher temperatures. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem, 2012