一种基于不同风险偏好投资多目标决策模型及解法

建立了风险投资的多目标决策模型，分别采用线性加权法、TOPSIS法和密切值法，对不同风险偏好下备选方案进行排序，再用平均值法对上述排序进行综合排序，从而避免单一方法的片面性，较为全面科学地得出最优方案。最后，用一个算例说明了方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于人工神经网络的商业银行信用风险模型

在对人工神经网络的基本原理进行简要介绍的基础上 ,着重对构建商业银行信用风险的人工神经网络模型进行了研究 ,实证结果表明 ,人工神经网模型具有很高的预测精度     

A two-echelon base-stock inventory model with Poisson demand and the sequential processing of orders at the upper echelon

We consider a two-echelon inventory system with a number of non-identical, independent ‘retailers’ at the lower echelon and a single ‘supplier’ at the upper echelon. Each retailer experiences Poisson demand and operates a base stock policy with backorders. The supplier manufactures to order and holds no stock. Orders are produced, in first-come first-served sequence, with a fixed production time. The supplier therefore functions as an M/D/1 queue. We are interested in the performance characteristics (average inventory, average backorder level) at each retailer. By finding the distribution of order lead time and hence the distribution of demand during order lead time, we find the steady state inventory and backorder levels based on the assumption that order lead times are independent of demand during order lead time at a retailer. We also propose two alternative approximation procedures based on assumed forms for the order lead time distribution. Finally we provide a derivation of the steady state inventory and backorder levels which will be exact as long as there is no transportation time on orders between the supplier and retailers. A numerical comparison is made between the exact and approximate measures. We conclude by recommending an approach which is intuitive and computationally straightforward.     

考虑通货膨胀与最长顾客等待时间的变质性物品的库存模型

本文建立了一种考虑通货膨胀与时间价值的变质性物品的库存模型,在模型中允许短缺发生且拖后的需求速率与在缺货期间已经发生的缺货量有关.和已有相关模型的主要区别在于本模型把一个可重复的订货周期内的最大平均利润的净现值作为目标函数,且增加了在缺货期间最长顾客等待时间的限制,以确保库存系统拥有较高的服务水平.然后讨论了模型最优解的存在性与唯一性,并提供了寻求模型整体最优解的算法.最后用实例说明了此模型在实际中的应用.     

Allocation of jobs and identical resources with two pooling centers

We examine the resource allocation problem of partitioning identical servers into two parallel pooling centers, and simultaneously assigning job types to pooling centers. Each job type has a distinct Poisson arrival rate and a distinct holding cost per unit time. Each pooling center becomes a queueing system with an exponential service time distribution. The goal is to minimize the total holding cost. The problem is shown to be polynomial if a job type can be divided between the pooling centers, and NP-hard if dividing job types is not possible. When there are two servers and jobs cannot be divided, we demonstrate that the two pooling center configuration is rarely optimal. A heuristic which checks the single pooling center has an upper bound on the relative error of 4/3. The heuristic is extended for the multiple server problem, where relative error is bounded above by the number of servers.      

广义风险过程中渐近方差的非参数估计

本文对广义风险过程中的渐近方差作了非参数估计,得出并证明了两个定理,为广义风险过程中破产概率的区间估计作了理论准备．     

Optimal asset allocation for pension funds under mortality risk during the accumulation and decumulation phases

In a financial market with one riskless asset and n risky assets whose prices are lognormal, we solve in a closed form the problem of a pension fund maximizing the expected CRRA utility of its surplus till the (stochastic) death time of a representative agent. We consider a unique asset allocation problem for both accumulation and decumulation phases. The optimal investment in the risky assets must decrease during the first phase and increase during the second one. We accordingly suggest it is not optimal to manage the two phases separately, and outsourcing of allocation decisions should be avoided in both phases. JEL: G23, G11 MSC 2000: 62P05, 91B28, 91B30, 91B70, 93E20     

Solving multiple-objective problems in the objective space

Projection and relaxation techniques are employed to decompose a multiobjective problem into a two-level structure. The basic manipulation consists in projecting the decision variables onto the space of the implicit tradeoffs, allowing the definition of a relaxed multiobjective master problem directly in the objective space. An additional subproblem tests the feasibility of the solution encountered by the relaxed problem. Some properties of the relaxed problem (linearity, small number of variables, etc.) render its solution efficient by a number of methods. Representatives of two different classes of multiobjective methods [the Geoffrion, Dyer, Feinberg (GDF) method and the fuzzy method of Baptistella and Ollero] are implemented and applied within this context to a water resources allocation problem. The results attest the computational viability of the overall procedure and its usefulness for the solution of multiobjective problems.This work was partially sponsored by grants from CNP_q and FAPESP, Brazil. The authors are indebted to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.     

On sequential procedures for the point estimation of the mean of a normal population

The sequential procedures developed by Starr (1966, Ann. Math. Statist., 37, 1173–1185) for estimating the mean of a normal population are further analyzed. Asymptotic properties of the regret and first two moments of the stopping rules are studied and second-order approximations are derived.     

On the population monotonicity of independent set games

An independent set game is a cooperative game dealing with profit sharing in the maximum independent set problem. A population monotonic allocation scheme is a rule specifying how to share the profit of each coalition among its participants such that every participant is better off when the coalition expands. In this paper, we provide a necessary and sufficient characterization for independent set games admitting population monotonic allocation schemes. Moreover, our characterization can be verified efficiently.