周期异方差时间序列的季节单位根检验

为检验带异方差的季节时间序列中的单位根,提出基于最小二乘估计的统计量.在原假设下得到检验统计量的极限分布.用M on te C arlo方法计算同方差下的经验分位数并考虑异方差对检验水平的影响.实例分析表明了用该方法检验季节单位根的有效性.     

A Bayesian Estimate of the Risk of Tick-Borne Diseases

The paper considers the problem of estimating the risk of a tick-borne disease in a given region. A large set of epidemiological data is evaluated, including the point pattern of collected cases, the population map and covariates, i.e. explanatory variables of geographical nature, obtained from GIS.The methodology covers the choice of those covariates which influence the risk of infection most. Generalized linear models are used and AIC criterion yields the decision. Further, an empirical Bayesian approach is used to estimate the parameters of the risk model. Statistical properties of the estimators are investigated. Finally, a comparison with earlier results is discussed from the point of view of statistical disease mapping.     

LOCAL MEDIAN ESTIMATION OF VARIANCE FUNCTION

This paper considers local median estimation in fixed design regression problems. The proposed method is employed to estimate the median function and the variance function of a heteroscedastic regression model. Strong convergence rates of the proposed estimators are obtained. Simulation results are given to show the performance of the proposed methods.     

Cardinal splines in nonparametric regression

We discuss a nonparametric regression model on an equidistant grid of the real line. A class of kernel type estimates based on the so-called fundamental cardinal splines will be introduced. Asymptotic optimality of these estimates will be established for certain functional classes. This model explains the often mentioned heuristic fact that cubic splines are adequate for most practical applications.      

Adaptation on the space of finite signed measures

Given an i.i.d. sample from a probability measure P on ℝ, an estimator is constructed that efficiently estimates P in the bounded-Lipschitz metric for weak convergence of probability measures, and, at the same time, estimates the density of P — if it exists (but without assuming it does) — at the best possible rate of convergence in total variation loss (that is, in L ¹-loss for densities).      

Saddlepoint approximations to studentized bootstrap distributions based onM-estimates

Summary  Saddlepoint methods can provide extremely accurate approximations to resampling distributions. This article applies them to distributions of studentized bootstrap statistics based on robustM-estimates. As examples we consider the studentized versions of Huber’sM-estimate of location, of its initially MAD scaled version, and of Huber’s proposal 2. The studentized version of Huber’s proposal 2 seems to be a preferable measure of location. Remarks on implementation and related problems are given.     

Bandwidth choice for local polynomial estimation of smooth boundaries

Local polynomial methods hold considerable promise for boundary estimation, where they offer unmatched flexibility and adaptivity. Most rival techniques provide only a single order of approximation; local polynomial approaches allow any order desired. Their more conventional rivals, for example high-order kernel methods in the context of regression, do not have attractive versions in the case of boundary estimation. However, the adoption of local polynomial methods for boundary estimation is inhibited by lack of knowledge about their properties, in particular about the manner in which they are influenced by bandwidth; and by the absence of techniques for empirical bandwidth choice. In the present paper we detail the way in which bandwidth selection determines mean squared error of local polynomial boundary estimators, showing that it is substantially more complex than in regression settings. For example, asymptotic formulae for bias and variance contributions to mean squared error no longer decompose into monotone functions of bandwidth. Nevertheless, once these properties are understood, relatively simple empirical bandwidth selection methods can be developed. We suggest a new approach to both local and global bandwidth choice, and describe its properties.     

Real-time parameter estimation for degrading and pinching hysteretic models

Many civil and mechanical structures exhibit hysteresis with degradation and/or pinching when subject to severe cyclic loadings such as earthquakes, wind, or sea waves. The modeling and identification of non-linear hysteretic systems with degradation and pinching is therefore a practical problem encountered in the engineering mechanics field. On-line identification of degrading and pinching hysteretic systems is quite a challenging problem because of its complexity. A recently developed technique, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) which is capable of handling any functional non-linearity, is applied to the on-line parametric system identification of hysteretic differential models with degradation and pinching. Simulation results show that the UKF is efficient and effective for the real-time state estimation and parameter identification of highly non-linear hysteretic systems with degradation and pinching.     

相依样本下污染线性模型的最近邻估计

考虑一般线性模型,设误差序列{ei}是平稳的α-混合序列,具有公共未知密度,f(x)．本文首先讨论了基于残差的f(x)的最近邻估计的相合性及收敛速度,然后把结论推广到污染线性模型,讨论了污染系数ε,误差的主体分布及回归系数β的估计的相合性,收敛速度以及(β|^)的渐近正态性．     

基于非参数分布的沪深股市VaR测度

沪深大盘指数的收益率分布函数并不服从通常人们所认为的正态分布.因此,采用一种新的方法—非参数核密度估计,对沪深股指收益率分布进行拟合.该方法不仅很好地刻画了收益率分布的尖峰和肥尾特征,而且由此建立的VaR模型比一般的基于参数分布的VaR模型更能捕捉市场的风险特征,结论也更加准确.