Intensity‐based estimation of extreme loss event probability and value at risk

We develop a methodology for the estimation of extreme loss event probability and the value at risk, which takes into account both the magnitudes and the intensity of the extreme losses. Specifically, the extreme loss magnitudes are modeled with a generalized Pareto distribution, whereas their intensity is captured by an autoregressive conditional duration model, a type of self‐exciting point process. This allows for an explicit interaction between the magnitude of the past losses and the intensity of future extreme losses. The intensity is further used in the estimation of extreme loss event probability. The method is illustrated and backtested on 10 assets and compared with the established and baseline methods. The results show that our method outperforms the baseline methods, competes with an established method, and provides additional insight and interpretation into the prediction of extreme loss event probability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance Improvement of Acid Pretreated 3D-printing Composite for the Heavy Metal Ions Analysis

The performance enhancement of 3D-printed electrode comprised of polylactic acid (PLA) and graphite (Gr) doped with graphene oxide (GO) was studied to detect five heavy metal ions in trace level. The pretreatment of PLA/Gr/GO electrode with potential cycling in H₂SO₄ solution achieved the most sensitive response. The characteristics of the composite electrodes were verified using XPS, FE-SEM, EDXS, Raman, and impedance spectroscopy. The experimental variables affecting the response current were optimized with respect to pH, deposition time, ratio of PLA/Gr/GO, and supporting electrolytes. The pretreated 3D-PLA/Gr/GO electrode showed a wide dynamic range from 0.5 ppb to 1.0 ppm with low detection limits of 0.039–0.13 ppb. The reliability of the PLA/Gr/GO electrode was evaluated by analyzing the reference samples of European Reference Materials.     

SPE and determination by FAAS of heavy metals using a new synthesized polymer resin in various water and dried vegetables samples

Firstly, poly[phenyl thiadiazole methacrylamide-co-divinylbenzene-co-2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid] (PTMAAm-co-DVB-co-AMPS), a new polymer resin was synthesized. This polymer resin was characterized by elemental analyzer, X-ray diffractometer, scanning electron microscope (SEM) and IR spectrometer. The glass column packed with the synthesized polymer resin was used for solid phase extraction (SPE). At the same time, the analytes were separated and preconcentrated from various water, dried vegetables samples and standard reference material (CRM) with SPE and determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS). The experimental conditions of this method such as pH, flow rates of sample, flow rates of eluent, type / concentration / volume of eluent, sample volume and matrix ions were examined. The limits of detection (µg L^?1) were calculated (3s) 0.9 for Mn(II), 1.4 for Cd(II), Co(II) and Zn(II), 1.5 for Cr(III), 2.2. for Cu(II), 1.9 for Pb(II),1.5 for Ni(II) and 1.9 for Fe(III) (n = 21). The low relative standard deviation, ≤ 2% (n = 11) and preconcentration factor as 75 for analytes were obtained.     

An Interlaboratory Comparison of a Standardised EDTA Extraction Procedure for the Analysis of Available Trace Elements in Two Quality Control Soils

Abstract

A standardised EDTA extraction procedure was tested collaboratively by six laboratories using two in-house reference soils identified as soil A and soil B. The extracts were analysed for Zn, Cu, Pb and Mn by Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectrometry. Concentrations of extractable elements in soil A were generally much lower than those found in soil B. All laboratories produced some extreme outlying results, most of these were produced in soil B. Results for Mn were the most variable, with a range of 63.4–100.3 μg g^?1 in soil A and 226.4–415.3 μg g^?1 in soil B. In both soils, one laboratory reported high values for Zn and Mn and, one laboratory, for soil B, produced values for all four elements which were consistently low.

If outlying results are ignored, the results from most laboratories were in reasonable agreement for all elements except Mn.     

Development of Resin Membranes as a Sensitive Indicator of Heavy Metal Toxicity in the Soil Environment

Abstract

Ion exchange resins in contact with soil can act as a sink for metal cations, thereby simulate the action of plant roots. Ion exchange resins in membrane form offer additional advantages in ease of use and handling. A procedure was developed to assess the bioavailability of four heavy metals Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb via direct in soil burial. A growth chamber experiment with three representative crops (oats, radish and lettuce) was set up to determine the phytotoxic levels of the four heavy metals. The critical levels varied widely from crop to crop, and soil to soil. Lettuce was most sensitive to high concentration of metals. The toxic effects are more pronounced on sandier textured soils.     

Polymer-Mercury Coated Screen-Printed Sensors for Electrochemical Stripping Analysis of Heavy Metals

In the perspective of in-field stripping analysis of heavy metals, the use and disposal of toxic mercury solutions (necessary to plate a mercury film on a carbon electrode surface) presents a problem. The aim of this work was the development of mercury coated screen-printed electrodes previously prepared in the lab and ready to use in-field. Thus some commercially available polymers like Nafion®, Eastman Kodak AQ29®, and Methocel® were investigated as mercury entrapping systems for electrochemical stripping analysis of heavy metals. Screen-printed disposable cells with a silver pseudo-reference electrode, a graphite counter electrode, and a graphite working electrode were used. To modify the sensor, the polymer solution was cast onto the carbon working electrode surface. Detection limits of 0.8 and 1 μg/L were obtained for lead and cadmium respectively. Since Methocel® based electrodes showed the best performance, they were used for the analysis of real samples. The results were compared with those obtained using a classical thin mercury film electrode and ICP spectroscopy.

All the experiments reported here were performed in un-deareated solutions as required for in-field analysis.     

Energy flow along the medium-induced parton cascade

We discuss the dynamics of parton cascades that develop in dense QCD matter, and contrast their properties with those of similar cascades of gluon radiation in vacuum. We argue that such cascades belong to two distinct classes that are characterized respectively by an increasing or a constant (or decreasing) branching rate along the cascade. In the former class, of which the BDMPS, medium-induced, cascade constitutes a typical example, it takes a finite time to transport a finite amount of energy to very soft quanta, while this time is essentially infinite in the latter case, to which the DGLAP cascade belongs. The medium induced cascade is accompanied by a constant flow of energy towards arbitrary soft modes, leading eventually to the accumulation of the initial energy of the leading particle at zero energy. It also exhibits scaling properties akin to wave turbulence. These properties do not show up in the cascade that develops in vacuum. There, the energy accumulates in the spectrum at smaller and smaller energy as the cascade develops, but the energy never flows all the way down to zero energy. Our analysis suggests that the way the energy is shared among the offsprings of a splitting gluon has little impact on the qualitative properties of the cascades, provided the kernel that governs the splittings is not too singular.     

Heavy tails for an alternative stochastic perpetuity model

In this paper we consider a stochastic model of perpetuity-type. In contrast to the classical affine perpetuity model of Kesten (1973) and Goldie (1991) all discount factors in the model are mutually independent. We prove that the tails of the distribution of this model are regularly varying both in the univariate and multivariate cases. Due to the additional randomness in the model the tails are not pure power laws as in the Kesten–Goldie setting but involve a logarithmic term.     

Application of Anodic Stripping Differential Alternative Pulses Voltammetry for Simultaneous Species Quantification

The second order voltammetric technique Differential Alternative Pulses Voltammetry (DAPV) was applied in anodic stripping mode for simultaneous quantification of traces of species having close E_1/2. The potential‐time waveform and the signal processing allowing the DAPV application in stripping mode are presented. The pulses widths and amplitudes were optimized to obtain maximal sensitivity and resolution at traces of In³⁺ and Cd²⁺ (having E_1/2 difference of 45 mV) simultaneous quantification in presence of excess of Pb²⁺. Precise results for both species concentrations were obtained up to In³⁺ to Cd²⁺ concentration ratio as high as 1 to 10 without any sample pre‐treatment in purified industrial waste waters using 0.1 mol L⁻¹ HCl as supporting electrolyte.     

Electrochemical sensors of heavy metals using novel polymer-modified glassy carbon electrodes

Electroanalytical determination of heavy metals using stripping voltammetry is commonly employed and has many advantages over other methods. The sensitivity of the technique is greatly improved by employing different modified electrodes. Seven novel polymer-modified glassy carbon electrodes have been developed in this investigation for the trace analysis of heavy metals such as zinc, cadmium, lead, arsenic, and copper in formulated samples of waters by square wave stripping voltammetry. Very good responses have been observed for all the metals, while all the modified electrodes employed. The poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene)-modified electrode has resulted in very low limit of detection (LOD) value. Comparison is made between literature results of LOD and the results obtained in this study. An independent atomic absorption spectroscopic analysis of the industrial wastewater sample was carried out and the results compared. The suitability of the method for practical application was ascertained by applying the procedure for the wastewater from a plating industry.