Application of possibility theory to investment decisions

Carlson and Fuller (2001, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 122, 315–326) introduced the concept of possibilistic mean, variance and covariance of fuzzy numbers. In this paper, we extend some of these results to a nonlinear type of fuzzy numbers called adaptive fuzzy numbers (see Bodjanova (2005, Information Science, 172, 73–89) for detail). We then discuss the application of these results to decision making problems in which the parameters may involve uncertainty and vagueness. As an application, we develop expression for fuzzy net present value (FNPV) of future cash flows involving adaptive fuzzy numbers by using their possibilistic moments. An illustrative numerical example is given to illustrate the results.     

Fuzzy minimum weight edge covering problem

Minimum weight edge covering problem, known as a classic problem in graph theory, is employed in many scientific and engineering applications. In the applications, the weight may denote cost, time, or opponent’s payoff, which can be vague in practice. This paper considers the edge covering problem under fuzzy environment, and formulates three models which are expected minimum weight edge cover model, α-minimum weight edge cover model, and the most minimum weight edge cover model. As an extension for the models, we respectively introduce the crisp equivalent of each model in the case that the weights are independent trapezoidal fuzzy variables. Due to the complexity of the problem, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is employed to solve the models, which can deal with the problem with any type of fuzzy weights. At last, some numerical experiments are given to show the application of the models and the robustness of the algorithm.     

Fuzzy profit measures for a fuzzy economic order quantity model

Changing economic conditions make the selling price and demand quantity more and more uncertain in the market. The conventional inventory models determine the selling price and order quantity for a retailer’s maximal profit with exactly known parameters. This paper develops a solution method to derive the fuzzy profit of the inventory model when the demand quantity and unit cost are fuzzy numbers. Since the parameters contained in the inventory model are fuzzy, the profit value calculated from the model should be fuzzy as well. Based on the extension principle, the fuzzy inventory problem is transformed into a pair of two-level mathematical programs to derive the upper bound and lower bound of the fuzzy profit at possibility level α. According to the duality theorem of geometric programming, the pair of two-level mathematical programs is transformed into a pair of conventional geometric programs to solve. By enumerating different α values, the upper bound and lower bound of the fuzzy profit are collected to approximate the membership function. Since the profit of the inventory problem is expressed by the membership function rather than by a crisp value, more information is provided for making decisions.     

Order selection and pricing methods using flexible quantity and fuzzy approach for buyer evaluation

This paper presents the methods for order selection and pricing of manufacturer (supplier) with make-to-order basis when orders exceed production capacity. By quoting the concepts of triangular fuzzy numbers and linguistic variables, a fuzzy approach to evaluating buyers by taking into account both positive and negative criteria is proposed. According to the classified results of buyers, the orders will be produced with priority, declined, or determined by MIP model. The fixed quantity MIP model and flexible quantity MIP model are employed to determine the produced orders along with the production quantity and the reference amount for price reduction. By applying the concept of TOPSIS, the closeness coefficients for satisfaction grades of orders and for ranking values of buyers are used as the adjusting rates in the final pricing MIP model to set segmented price.     

Simulation with system dynamics and fuzzy reasoning of a tax policy to reduce CO2 emissions in the residential sector

This methodological paper presents a planning and control methodology illustrated by a simplified case study on the carbon-tax design in the residential sector. The first objective is to show how to simulate with system dynamics the consumers’ behaviour and the continuous tax-control mechanism depending on few important feedbacks, often ignored in static macroeconomic modelling. A second objective is to show how to aggregate external data driving this model and stemming from different sources with various credibility levels. This is realised by means of fuzzy-reasoning techniques incorporated into the system-dynamics model.     

由后件单增模糊蕴涵算子构造的一类模糊系统及其逼近特性

给出由关于规则后件单增的模糊蕴涵算子构造的乘积推理机、"单点"模糊化方法和中心平均解模糊化方法设计的模糊系统, 并分析了它对紧集上连续可微函数的逼近特性.结果表明: 当模糊蕴涵算子θ满足θ(a,1)=1时, 模糊系统不具有逼近能力; 当θ(a,1)=p(a)(当0相似文献   

Coordinated control of distribution supply chains in the presence of fuzzy customer demand

This paper considers a single product inventory control in a Distribution Supply Chain (DSC). The DSC operates in the presence of uncertainty in customer demands. The demands are described by imprecise linguistic expressions that are modelled by discrete fuzzy sets. Inventories at each facility within the DSC are replenished by applying periodic review policies with optimal order up-to-quantities. Fuzzy customer demands imply fuzziness in inventory positions at the end of review intervals and in incurred relevant costs per unit time interval. The determination of the minimum of defuzzified total cost of the DSC is a complex problem which is solved by applying decomposition; the original problem is decomposed into a number of simpler independent optimisation subproblems, where each retailer and the warehouse determine their optimum periodic reviews and order up-to-quantities. An iterative coordination mechanism is proposed for changing the review periods and order up-to-quantities for each retailer and the warehouse in such a way that all parties within the DSC are satisfied with respect to total incurred costs per unit time interval. Coordination is performed by introducing fuzzy constraints on review periods and fuzzy tolerances on retailers and warehouse costs in local optimisation subproblems.     

Convex fuzzy mapping with differentiability and its application in fuzzy optimization

The concepts of differentiability, convexity, generalized convexity and minimization of a fuzzy mapping are known in the literature. The purpose of this present paper is to extend and generalize these concepts to fuzzy mappings of several variables using Buckley–Feuring approach for fuzzy differentiation and derive Karush–Kuhn–Tucker condition for the constrained fuzzy minimization problem.     

Possibilistic linear regression analysis for fuzzy data

Fuzzy data given by expert knowledge can be regarded as a possibility distribution by which possibilistic linear systems are defined. Recently, it has become important to deal with fuzzy data in connection with expert knowledge. Three formulations of possibilistic linear regression analysis are proposed here to deal with fuzzy data. Since our formulations can be reduced to linear programming problems, the merit of our formulations is to be able to obtain easily fuzzy parameters in possibilistic linear models and to add other constraint conditions which might be obtained from expert knowledge of fuzzy parameters. This approach can be regarded as a fuzzy interval analysis in a fuzzy environment.     

一致性互反Fuzzy判断矩阵的传递性

研究矩阵元素为Fuzzy数的互反判断矩阵的传递性质.首先得到了判断两个Fuzzy数近似相等的等价条件,并得到了揭示Fuzzy数的核之间关系的一个充要条件.在此基础上,进一步证明了一致性互反Fuzzy判断矩阵具有传递性的两个结论.这两个结论说明:在层次分析法中,用一致性互反Fuzzy判断矩阵表示一组方案在同一目标下的两两重要性比较是符合理性决策的思维特征的.