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11.
Logistic模型参数估计及预测实例 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
本文提出了对Logistic模型中的参数进行迭代估计的新算法,通过比较分析,说明了本文算法的有效性。 相似文献
12.
In the literature the Brown Method is often recommended for forecasting with the smoothing constant α = 0.1 or α = 0.2. We describe an experiment for checking the recommendation, the results of which indicate that it has severe drawbacks. An alternative is suggested. 相似文献
13.
Cagdas Hakan Aladag Erol Egrioglu Murat A. Basaran 《Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics》2010,233(10):2683-2687
Although artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in forecasting time series, the determination of the best model is still a problem that has been studied a lot. Various approaches available in the literature have been proposed in order to select the best model for forecasting in ANN in recent years. One of these approaches is to use a model selection strategy based on the weighted information criterion (WIC). WIC is calculated by summing weighted different selection criteria which measure the forecasting accuracy of an ANN model in different ways. In the calculation of WIC, the weights of different selection criteria are determined heuristically. In this study, these weights are calculated by using optimization in order to obtain a more consistent criterion. Four real time series are analyzed in order to show the efficiency of the improved WIC. When the weights are determined based on the optimization, it is obviously seen that the improved WIC produces better results. 相似文献
14.
We propose and apply a novel approach for modeling special-day effects to predict electricity demand in Korea. Notably, we model special-day effects on an hourly rather than a daily basis. Hourly specified predictor variables are implemented in the regression model with a seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA) type error structure in order to efficiently reflect the special-day effects. The interaction terms between the hour-of-day effects and the hourly based special-day effects are also included to capture the unique intraday patterns of special days more accurately. The multiplicative SARMA mechanism is employed in order to identify the double seasonal cycles, namely, the intraday effect and the intraweek effect. The forecast results of the suggested model are evaluated by comparing them with those of various benchmark models for the following year. The empirical results indicate that the suggested model outperforms the benchmark models for both special- and non-special day predictions. 相似文献
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We study a new approach to statistical prediction in the Dempster–Shafer framework. Given a parametric model, the random variable to be predicted is expressed as a function of the parameter and a pivotal random variable. A consonant belief function in the parameter space is constructed from the likelihood function, and combined with the pivotal distribution to yield a predictive belief function that quantifies the uncertainty about the future data. The method boils down to Bayesian prediction when a probabilistic prior is available. The asymptotic consistency of the method is established in the iid case, under some assumptions. The predictive belief function can be approximated to any desired accuracy using Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear optimization. As an illustration, the method is applied to multiple linear regression. 相似文献
17.
We propose using weighted fuzzy time series (FTS) methods to forecast the future performance of returns on portfolios. We model the uncertain parameters of the fuzzy portfolio selection models using a possibilistic interval-valued mean approach, and approximate the uncertain future return on a given portfolio by means of a trapezoidal fuzzy number. Introducing some modifications into the classical models of fuzzy time series, based on weighted operators, enables us to generate trapezoidal numbers as forecasts of the future performance of the portfolio returns. This fuzzy forecast makes it possible to approximate both the expected return and the risk of the investment through the value and ambiguity of a fuzzy number.We incorporate our proposals into classical fuzzy time series methods and analyze their effectiveness compared with classical weighted fuzzy time series models, using historical returns on assets from the Spanish stock market. When our weighted FTS proposals are used to point-wise forecast portfolio returns the one-step ahead accuracy is improved, also with respect to non-fuzzy forecasting methods. 相似文献
18.
This paper discusses different methods of predicting a stock's systematic risk, using the financial statements of 67 German corporations from the period 1967 to 1986. We show that the most precise forecasts are given by neural networks, whose topology has been optimized by a genetic algorithm. In addition we analyze and visualize the dependencies that influence the forecasts of a stock's systematic risk. 相似文献
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Linear regression has been used for many years in developing mathematical models for application in marketing, management, and sales forecasting. In this paper, two different sales forecasting techniques are discussed. The first technique involves non-fuzzy abstract methods of linear regression and econometrics. A study of the international market sales of cameras, done in 1968 by John Scott Armstrong, utilized these non-fuzzy forecasting techniques. The second sales forecasting technique uses fuzzy linear regression introduced by H. Tanaka, S. Uejima, and K. Asai, in 1980. In this paper, a study of the computer and peripheral equipment sales in the United States is discussed using fuzzy linear regression. Moreover, fuzzy linear regression is applied to forecasting in an uncertain environment. Finally, some possible improvements and suggestions for further study are mentioned. 相似文献