状态模糊下主客观不确定性同时存在的重要性测度分析

为了分析状态模糊下主观不确定性对失效概率的影响,定义了两种重要性测度指标：相关系数和相关比。针对传统的Monte Carlo方法计算量大的缺点,利用近似方法引入一个比例系数C将三层Monte Carlo循环简化成双层循环。为了进一步减小计算量,本文建立了一种状态模糊下主客观不确定性同时存在时重要性测度指标求解的移动最小二乘MLS（Move Least Square）法。该方法通过移动最小二乘策略拟合主观变量与响应量输出之间的映射关系,并根据此关系可以很方便地得到模型的条件响应输出,进而得到主客观不确定性同时存在情况下的重要性测度。本文算例验证了所提方法的效率和精度。     

基于摄动法的不确定性有限元模型修正方法研究

开展了考虑不确定性的有限元模型修正方法的研究。基于摄动法推导了待修正参数均值和协方差矩阵的迭代格式,其中协方差的迭代格式包括是否考虑试验数据与修正参数之间相关性的两种形式。在理论研究基础上开展数值仿真研究,实现了不确定性有限元模型修正的摄动法,并研究了试验数据样本数量对修正误差的影响。仿真结果表明,该方法适用于解决系统参数与试验数据存在不确定性的模型修正问题,试验样本数量对待修正参数标准差的修正精度影响较大;忽略试验模态参数与待修正参数不确定性之间的相关性,能够避免计算二阶灵敏度矩阵,在保证修正结果准确性的前提下减少计算量。     

Uncertainties induced by statistical fluctuations in fast monoenergetic neutron yield measurements

A plastic scintillation detector was used to measure the yield of deuterium-deuterium (DD) neutrons or deuterium-tritium (DT) neutrons. Collisions of fast neutrons with hydrogen nucleus in a scintillator generated recoil protons, the energies of which were fully deposited in the scintillator. The statistical fluctuation of the protons' number and that of the protons' total energy were two sources of measurement uncertainty. Based on DT neutrons, this paper represents the algorithms of computing the probability density functions of the two sources. Uncertainties of the measurement induced by statistical fluctuations were finally computed by constructing the probability density functions of the proton number and that of the neutron number.     

铟活化诊断氘氘中子产额不确定度分析

介绍了铟活化诊断氘氘中子产额的测量原理,分析了中子产额测量不确定度的来源及评定方法。中子产额测量不确定度主要由灵敏度标定不确定度、活化射线净计数不确定度、立体角测量不确定度及测量系统的随机误差等构成。评估了灵敏度标定过程中加速器中子与聚变中子能量差异、大厅散射中子本底等因素对灵敏度标定的影响,并评估了宇宙射线本底对活化射线净计数测量的影响。分析了中子产额处于不同量级时起主要作用的不确定度分量,提出了减小灵敏度标定不确定度的方法。以实验数据为基础,对具体的实验数据进行了分析计算。结果表明:利用伴随粒子法在加速器中子源上标定出铟活化测量系统灵敏度的相对标准不确定度为4.3%。中子产额低于1010时,产额测量不确定度大于7%,活化射线净计数误差是产额测量误差的主要来源;产额大于1010时,测量不确定度好于7%,中子产额测量不确定度主要由灵敏度标定不确定度引起。     

激光差动共焦曲率半径测量不确定度评定

曲率半径是球面光学元件中的重要参数之一,曲率半径的高精度测量已经成为光学元件使用与加工中的一个关键问题。提出了基于差动共焦法的曲率半径测量方法,研制了1套激光差动共焦曲率半径测量系统,并对2组曲率半径测量结果进行不确定度评定。结果表明,2组曲率半径的测量值均与标称值吻合,其相对误差为0001 15%,两组测量数据的标准不确定度均优于3211 11×10-4 mm。     

竞争环境下随机产出供应商的融资策略研究

考虑由一个制造商和两个竞争性供应商组成的供应链系统,其中一个供应商存在资金短缺的问题,自有资金不足以完成正常生产任务,需要通过融资获得资金完成生产。针对供应链内部和外部两种融资模式,分别构建了供应链成员的收益模型,计算了不同融资方式下的决策结果,并在此基础上对两种融资模式进行了比较分析。结果表明,资金短缺的供应商生产不确定性较低时,供应链成员所能获得的利润较高,并且内部融资下资金短缺的供应商生产积极性高于外部融资。同时发现,对融资方式偏好的不一致将导致制造商利润损失,此时制造商可以采取一定的激励措施引导供应商选择合适的融资方式以提高整体收益。     

Tighter Bound of Entropic Uncertainty under the Unruh Effect

The uncertainty principle limits the ability to simultaneously predict measurement outcomes for two non-commuting observables of a quantum particle. However, the uncertainty can be violated by considering a particle as a quantum memory correlated with the primary particle. By modeling an Unruh–Dewitt detector coupled to a massless scalar field, it is explored how the Unruh effect affects the entropic uncertainty and the tighter lower bound for a pair of entangled detectors is probed when one of them is accelerated. It is found that Unruh thermal noise really gives rise to an increase of entropic uncertainty for the given conditions since the correlation between quantum memory and the measured system is decreased. It is shown that the bound of the entropic uncertainty relations, in the presence of memory, can be formulated by introducing the Holevo quantity and mutual information. It is also noticed that Adabi's lower bound is tighter than that of Berta, and just the optimal bound under the Unruh effect. Moreover, it is shown that Berta's lower bound is unrelated to the choice of complementary observables, while the optimal Adabi's lower bound is dependent on the measurement choice. It is worth mentioning that the investigations may offer a better understanding of the entropic uncertainty in a relativistic motion.     

测量结果及其不确定度的修约方法

基于国家计量技术规范和实际应用情况,文章提出,为了保证修约值最接近原始数值、修约方法规范统一、易于操作,测量不确定度应统一取成两位有效位数,并据此来修约测量结果.