Impact of Measurement Uncertainty in Chemical Quantities on Environmental Prognosis by Geochemical Transport Modelling∗

Abstract

In Germany, geochemical modelling takes a strong position in two aspects of broader public interest. The first aspect is the safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository, the second is remediation of uranium mining areas. In both aspects, the application of geochemical modelling is stipulated by authorities. This situation results from the possibility to model highly complex situations by computers. The increase in computing power experienced in recent times now offers techniques to assess the sensitivity of modelling results to uncertain input data both in the thermodynamic data base and the site-specific field data. Both aspects are investigated by using Monte Carlo methods in combination with non-parametric statistics. A probabilistic geochemical modelling of uranium mill tailings leaching is demonstrated by application of TReaC modelling code using a simplified site model.     

The position–momentum uncertainty relations for a Pöschl–Teller type potential and its squeezed phenomena

We present the position–momentum uncertainties for the Pöschl–Teller potential. We observe that the Δx decreases with the potential depth λ but increases with quantum number n. Interestingly, we find that the Δp first increases and then decreases with the n  . The ΔxΔp$\mathrm{\Delta }x\mathrm{\Delta }p$ first decreases and then increases with the λ  , but almost becomes a constant (n+1/2)?$(n+1/2)?$ for a larger λ. Particularly, there exists a squeezed phenomenon in position x for the lower states. The squeezing in x compensated for by an increase in momentum p  , such that ΔxΔp??/2$\mathrm{\Delta }x\mathrm{\Delta }p??/2$ is still satisfied.     

激光差动共焦曲率半径测量不确定度评定

曲率半径是球面光学元件中的重要参数之一,曲率半径的高精度测量已经成为光学元件使用与加工中的一个关键问题。提出了基于差动共焦法的曲率半径测量方法,研制了1套激光差动共焦曲率半径测量系统,并对2组曲率半径测量结果进行不确定度评定。结果表明,2组曲率半径的测量值均与标称值吻合,其相对误差为0001 15%,两组测量数据的标准不确定度均优于3211 11×10-4 mm。     

测量结果及其不确定度的修约方法

基于国家计量技术规范和实际应用情况,文章提出,为了保证修约值最接近原始数值、修约方法规范统一、易于操作,测量不确定度应统一取成两位有效位数,并据此来修约测量结果.     

电喷雾质谱法测定牛血清白蛋白相对分子质量及测定结果的不确定度评估

对直接流动注射电喷雾质谱法和LC-MS联用电喷雾质谱法测定牛血清白蛋白相对分子质量的测定结果进行比对,并评估了测定结果的不确定度。直接流动注射法和LC-MS联用法测定牛血清白蛋白相对分子质量的扩展不确定度分别为20.8和12.0,LC-MS联用电喷雾质谱法具有较小的A类不确定度并且测定结果的中心值与理论值更为接近。两种方法均可以用于相对分子质量在10000~80000蛋白质的相对分子质量的测定。     

Stochastic modelling and optimization for environmental management

In modelling and managing complex environmental systems, inherent uncertainties of all relevant natural processes are to be taken into consideration. In the present paper diverse stochastic modelling and optimization approaches for handling such problems (primarily in the field of water quality analysis and control) are highlighted, drawing on the findings of case studies and real-world applications.     

非线性系统的自抗扰控制引论

系统的不确定和外部干扰是控制理论的主要敌手。最近二十年出现了一个新的对付不确定的控制方法称为自抗扰控制。本文旨在介绍一本这方面的新书:Active Disturbance Rejection Control for Nonlinear Systems:An Introduction,及其相关的背景。该书是一本自抗扰控制数学理论著作。为了引出本书的主要内容,我们扼要介绍了几种其他的对付系统不确定的控制方法,包括鲁棒H∞-控制、滑模控制、自适应控制以及内模原理,说明自抗扰控制的主要思想和与这些方法的异同之处。特别是指出了自适应控制、内模原理的估计和消除策略及其在自抗扰控制中的大规模应用。     

基于模糊需求的多产品供应商选择的多目标规划模型

由决策于环境的不确定性,供应商选择问题存在大量的模糊信息,传统的确定性规划模型已经不能够很好地处理此类问题。本文基于模糊需求量信息,对于多产品供应商问题建立了模糊多目标规划模型。同时考虑到各目标及约束的重要性程度不同的影响,通过引进适当的权重对多目标规划模型进行求解。文中结合实际算例验证模型的可行性和有效性。     

提前期需求为模糊随机条件下的连续库存补货策略

考虑提前期内需求为模糊随机变量且提前期为可缩短情形下,建立由购买商和供应商所组成的简单供应链连续库存补货策略优化模型,其中订单量、再订货点和提前期为决策变量.首先推导出模糊随机需求条件下购买商和供应链的成本函数,然后,进一步考虑总需求为三角模糊数,推导出供应商、购买商和供应链的模糊成本函数.在此基础上分别从购买商成本最小和供应链成本最小角度对模型进行求解,结合具体算例对模型进行应用分析和比较分析,结果表明模型具有有效性和实用性,并得出如下结论:从购买商本身角度考虑订购策略所产生的供应链成本总是大于从供应链整体角度考虑订货策略所产生的供应链成本,同时从购买商本身角度考虑订货策略所产生的最优订购量、购买商成本低于从供应链整体角度考虑订货策略所产生的最优订购量、购买商成本.     

Bidding under price uncertainty in multi-unit pay-as-bid procurement auctions for power systems reserve

In this paper a methodology for profit maximized bidding under price uncertainty in a day-ahead, multi-unit and pay-as-bid procurement auction for power systems reserve is proposed. Within this novel methodology a bidder is considered to follow a Bayes-strategy. Thereby, one bidder is assumed to behave strategically and the behavior of the remaining is summarized in a probability distribution of the market price and a reaction function to price dumping by the strategic bidder. With this approach two problems arise: First, as a pay-as-bid auction is considered, no uniform price and therefore no single probability distribution of the market price is readily available. Second, if historic bidding data of all participants are used to estimate such a distribution and market power is a relevant factor, the bid of the strategically behaving bidder is likely to influence the distribution. Within this paper for both of the problems solutions are presented. It is shown that by estimating a probability of acceptance the optimal bidding price with respect to a given capacity can be calculated by maximizing a stochastic non-linear objective function of expected profit. Taking the characteristics of recently established markets in Germany into account, the methodology is applied using exemplary data. It is shown that the methodology helps to manage existing price uncertainties and hence supports the trading decisions of a bidder. It is inferred that the developed methodology may also be used for bidding on other auction markets with a similar market design.