Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA

Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.     

Generalized uncertainty principle and tunnelin gradiation of the SAdS5 black hole

After considering the generalized uncertainty principle, we discuss the quantum tunneling radiation of a five-dimensional Schwarzschild anti de Sitter black hole. The radiation spectrum and the correction value of the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy are derived. In a five-dimensional black hole the one order correction term in the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy correction term is proportional to the third power of the area, and the logarithmic correction term is a two-order small quantity. The correction term is related to the dimension constant introduced in the generalized uncertainty principle. Because the black hole entropy is not divergent, the lowest value of the five-dimensional Schwarzschild anti de Sitter black hole horizon radius is obtained. After considering the generalized uncertainty principle, the radiation spectrum is still consistent with normalization theory.     

Numerical approach for quantification of epistemic uncertainty

In the field of uncertainty quantification, uncertainty in the governing equations may assume two forms: aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty can be characterised by known probability distributions whilst epistemic uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge of probabilistic information. While extensive research efforts have been devoted to the numerical treatment of aleatory uncertainty, little attention has been given to the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a numerical framework for quantification of epistemic uncertainty. The proposed methodology does not require any probabilistic information on uncertain input parameters. The method only necessitates an estimate of the range of the uncertain variables that encapsulates the true range of the input variables with overwhelming probability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we solve an encapsulation problem, which is a solution to the original governing equations defined on the estimated range of the input variables. We discuss solution strategies for solving the encapsulation problem and the sufficient conditions under which the numerical solution can serve as a good estimator for capturing the effects of the epistemic uncertainty. In the case where probability distributions of the epistemic variables become known a posteriori, we can use the information to post-process the solution and evaluate solution statistics. Convergence results are also established for such cases, along with strategies for dealing with mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the procedure and properties of the proposed methodology.     

基于集对分析联系数的信息不完全直觉模糊多属性决策

信息不完全直觉模糊多属性决策是一类不确定性决策问题,其不确定性来自属性权重信息不完全和属性值的直觉模糊数表示.为了系统地刻画直觉模糊多属性决策中的不确定性,避免直觉模糊多属性决策中利用得分函数做决策的片面性和不准确性,可以将信息不完全的权重和直觉模糊数表示的属性值转化成集对分析理论中的联系数,并建立信息不完全直觉模糊多属性决策模型,通过对不确定性进行分析后作出决策.实例应用表明该决策方法具有合理性和可行性.     

模糊数学在脉冲激光峰值功率检测中的应用

针对脉冲激光峰值功率检验结果小样本分布未知的特点,对梯形模糊数理论展开研究,并进行结果的不确定度评估.结果表明,建立的数学模型具有一定的鲁棒性,对同类参数的检测结果评估具有很好的指导和借鉴意义.     

中国农民消费行为及影响因素分析

本文运用适用预期的消费函数模型,对中国农民的消费行为影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明:农村居民消费的变动呈现出对收入变动的过度敏感,并且农民存在消费习惯,收入的不确定性进一步抑制了农民的消费。本文又做了进一步研究,发现受灾面积,农业支出对收入的影响不大,而农产品生产价格指数是造成收入不确定性的主要因素。     

Exponentially decaying wavelets with uncertainty constants uniformly bounded with respect to the smoothness parameter

We construct a family of wavelet functions whose scaling functions decay exponentially and have uncertainty constants uniformly bounded with respect to the smoothness parameter.     

Dynamic lot-sizing model with demand time windows and speculative cost structure

We consider a deterministic lot-sizing problem with demand time windows, where speculative motive is allowed. Utilizing an untraditional decomposition principle, we provide an optimal algorithm that runs in O(nT³) time, where n is the number of demands and T is the length of the planning horizon.     

光栅常量实验的数据处理

以测光栅常量实验的数据处理为例，叙述了一元线性不等精度测量的不确定度评定方法，介绍了直接从方差的性质推得斜率b及截距b0的不确定度的公式。     

Quantum Statistic Entropy of Three-Dimensional BTZ Black Hole

Using the new equation of state density motivated by the generalized uncertainty relation in the quantum gravity, we investigate entropy of a black line on the background of the three-dimensional BTZ. In our calculation, we need not introduce cutoff and can remove the divergent term in the original brick-wall method via the new equation of state density. And it is obtained that the entropy of the black line is proportional to the area of the horizon (perimeter). Further it is shown the entropy of black line is the entropy of quantum state on the surface of horizon (perimeter). The black line entropy is the intrinsic property of the black hole. The entropy is a quantum effect. By using quantum statistical method, we directly obtain the partition function of Bose field and fermi field on the background of the black line. The difficulty to solve wave equation of various particles is avoided. We offer a new simple and direct way for calculating the entropy of various spacetime black holes (black plane, black line and black column). PACS 04.20.Dw; 97.60.Lf