两个回归函数相等的Bootstrap检验

两个回归参数相等性检验一直是统计界感兴趣的问题之一．在这篇文章中，四个检验统计量被用于度量两曲线的差异，在原假设下统计量的分布采用向量数据的重复抽样来逼近，并给出了—些模拟结果．     

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts

Bennis and O’Toole [Bennis, W.G., O’Toole, J., 2005. How business schools lost their way. Harvard Business Review 83, 96–104] have recently argued that decision makers need guidance in ‘making decisions in the absence of clear facts’. As such, decision makers must be able to resourcefully use whatever limited information is available and advantageously portray its implications. Based on recently published theory which directly addresses this requirement, this paper demonstrates, through a practical example, how decision makers can make systemic decisions in situations characterized by extremely limited information and, furthermore, what form such decisions can take. Evidence is provided, therefore, that operational research can effectively address what appears to be a gap in management training.     

A parameterized approach to modeling and forecasting mortality

A new method is proposed of constructing mortality forecasts. This parameterized approach utilizes Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), based on heteroscedastic Poisson (non-additive) error structures, and using an orthonormal polynomial design matrix. Principal Component (PC) analysis is then applied to the cross-sectional fitted parameters. The produced model can be viewed either as a one-factor parameterized model where the time series are the fitted parameters, or as a principal component model, namely a log-bilinear hierarchical statistical association model of Goodman [Goodman, L.A., 1991. Measures, models, and graphical displays in the analysis of cross-classified data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 86(416), 1085-1111] or equivalently as a generalized Lee-Carter model with p interaction terms. Mortality forecasts are obtained by applying dynamic linear regression models to the PCs. Two applications are presented: Sweden (1751-2006) and Greece (1957-2006).     

基于小子样理论的坦克扭力轴疲劳寿命分析

基于小子样的思想,探讨扭力轴表面缺陷对其疲劳寿命的影响,有助于进一步找到降低扭力轴表面凹坑对扭力轴疲劳寿命影响的方法.     

Weighted Kolmogrov–Smirnov type tests for grouped Rayleigh data

We consider goodness of fit tests for the Rayleigh distribution with grouped data. New Kolmogrov–Smirnov type tests are suggested and compared with the traditional chi-square and likelihood ratio tests. The results show that some of the suggested tests have a good power performance as compared with the traditional ones.     

Simultaneous confidence and prediction bands in the certification of pressure-volume curves for the pore size analysis of solids by means of mercury porosimetry

The pore size analysis of solids is widely applied in chemical industries, materials engineering, ceramic production, environmental engineering, catalysis, chromatography, nanotechnology, and many other fields. In spite of several new methods used for determining the pore size distribution of meso- and macropores [see IUPAC Recommendations of 1994], mercury porosimetry has remained one of the most popular methods employed for the characterisation of porous materials. In this paper, a new way is described for the estimation of certified pressure-volume curves from experimental curves measured by different laboratories in connection with the certification of new reference materials for a comparatively low-pressure range of mercury intrusion (<2 MPa). Simultaneous confidence and prediction bands for the certified pressure-volume curves are constructed by bootstrapping.     

响应曲面法提取水松总黄酮的工艺研究

采用响应曲面法,优化了提取水松总黄酮的提取工艺条件为:微波时间3.8min,乙醇浓度69%,固液比1∶31,在此条件下,水松总黄酮的产率为1.88%。     

A New Class of Cellular Automata with a Discontinuous Glass Transition

We introduce a new class of two-dimensional cellular automata with a bootstrap percolation-like dynamics. Each site can be either empty or occupied by a single particle and the dynamics follows a deterministic updating rule at discrete times which allows only emptying sites. We prove that the threshold density ρ _c for convergence to a completely empty configuration is non trivial, 0<ρ _c <1, contrary to standard bootstrap percolation. Furthermore we prove that in the subcritical regime, ρ<ρ _c , emptying always occurs exponentially fast and that ρ _c coincides with the critical density for two-dimensional oriented site percolation on ℤ². This is known to occur also for some cellular automata with oriented rules for which the transition is continuous in the value of the asymptotic density and the crossover length determining finite size effects diverges as a power law when the critical density is approached from below. Instead for our model we prove that the transition is discontinuous and at the same time the crossover length diverges faster than any power law. The proofs of the discontinuity and the lower bound on the crossover length use a conjecture on the critical behaviour for oriented percolation. The latter is supported by several numerical simulations and by analytical (though non rigorous) works through renormalization techniques. Finally, we will discuss why, due to the peculiar mixed critical/first order character of this transition, the model is particularly relevant to study glassy and jamming transitions. Indeed, we will show that it leads to a dynamical glass transition for a Kinetically Constrained Spin Model. Most of the results that we present are the rigorous proofs of physical arguments developed in a joint work with D.S. Fisher.     

综合多种信息的金属化膜电容器可靠性评估

 金属化膜电容器是惯性约束聚变激光装置能源系统最重要的元器件之一,其可靠性水平对整个装置的可靠性和运行维护费用有着重要的影响。在分析金属化膜电容器失效机理的基础上,采用Wiener过程对其性能退化过程进行建模,得到了其寿命分布。在此基础上,提出了一种综合性能退化数据和寿命数据的可靠性评估方法。给出了一种评估精度的分析方法,对综合评估方法和基于性能退化数据评估方法的精度进行了分析,结果表明,综合评估方法的评估精度高于基于性能退化数据的评估方法的评估精度。     

火工品可靠性试验数据的综合分析方法

升降法试验数据和固定刺激量下的成败型试验数据,是两种最常见的火工品可靠性试验数据．我们应用Markov链,研究了升降法试验数据下,感度分布参数的极大似然估计的特性．在此基础上,应用Bootstrap方法和Bayes方法,给出了综合分析两种试验数据的方法．最后,将该方法应用于520底火的可靠性鉴定,得出了有益的结论．