稳态托卡马克堆中的自举电流

在稳态托卡马克堆的燃烧阶段,当感应电流下降后,新经典输运产生的自举电流便成为维持稳定电流的最好手段。本文根据α粒子新经典自举电流的最新结果,计算了感应电流消失阶段,稳态堆中α粒子、电子和离子的自举电流。     

Bootstrap in Markov-sequences based on estimates of transition density

We develop a Bootstrap method in Markov-sequences. This method is based on kernel estimates of the transition density of the Markov-sequence. It is shown that the Bootstrap estimate of the variance of a statistic which is a function of means, is consistent. We also show that the Bootstrap distributions of mean-like statistics and von Mises differentiable statistics converge to appropriate normal distributions. A few simulation results are reported to illustrate the discussion.Most of this work was carried out when the author was at the Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University.     

Sources and source regions effecting the aerosol composition of the Eastern Mediterranean

Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to deduce the aerosol sources at a rural site on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey, using sample collected between February 1992 and December 1993. Approximately 600 daily aerosol samples were collected and 40 elements and compounds were analyzed by atomic absorption spectrometry, instrumental neutron activation analysis, ion chromatography and colorimetry.Seven factors were identified with PMF, namely local dust, Saharan dust, sea salt, long range transport, smelter, arsenic and fertilizer factors. The non-parametric bootstrapped potential source contribution function (PSCF) was then used to help identify likely locations of the regional sources of pollution. Besides, explained variance, enrichment factors, seasonal variation of G-score values and back trajectories were used to define the source regions of the factors. Results demonstrated that there are major potential source areas, for the pollution-derived component in aerosol mass, on the Aegean coast, Northwest Turkey, Balkan countries, Ukraine and regions located northern part of Ukraine.     

A dynamic parameterization modeling for the age-period-cohort mortality

An extended version of Hatzopoulos and Haberman (2009) dynamic parametric model is proposed for analyzing mortality structures, incorporating the cohort effect. A one-factor parameterized exponential polynomial in age effects within the generalized linear models (GLM) framework is used. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) is then applied to time-dependent GLM parameter estimates and provides (marginal) estimates for a two-factor principal component (PC) approach structure. Modeling the two-factor residuals in the same way, in age-cohort effects, provides estimates for the (conditional) three-factor age-period-cohort model. The age-time and cohort related components are extrapolated using dynamic linear regression (DLR) models. An application is presented for England & Wales males (1841-2006).     

Hierarchical structures of correlations networks among Turkey’s exports and imports by currencies

We have examined the hierarchical structures of correlations networks among Turkey’s exports and imports by currencies for the 1996–2010 periods, using the concept of a minimal spanning tree (MST) and hierarchical tree (HT) which depend on the concept of ultrametricity. These trees are useful tools for understanding and detecting the global structure, taxonomy and hierarchy in financial markets. We derived a hierarchical organization and build the MSTs and HTs during the 1996–2001 and 2002–2010 periods. The reason for studying two different sub-periods, namely 1996–2001 and 2002–2010, is that the Euro (EUR) came into use in 2001, and some countries have made their exports and imports with Turkey via the EUR since 2002, and in order to test various time-windows and observe temporal evolution. We have carried out bootstrap analysis to associate a value of the statistical reliability to the links of the MSTs and HTs. We have also used the average linkage cluster analysis (ALCA) to observe the cluster structure more clearly. Moreover, we have obtained the bidimensional minimal spanning tree (BMST) due to economic trade being a bidimensional problem. From the structural topologies of these trees, we have identified different clusters of currencies according to their proximity and economic ties. Our results show that some currencies are more important within the network, due to a tighter connection with other currencies. We have also found that the obtained currencies play a key role for Turkey’s exports and imports and have important implications for the design of portfolio and investment strategies.     

Statistical inference for DEA estimators of directional distances

In productivity and efficiency analysis, the technical efficiency of a production unit is measured through its distance to the efficient frontier of the production set. The most familiar non-parametric methods use Farrell–Debreu, Shephard, or hyperbolic radial measures. These approaches require that inputs and outputs be non-negative, which can be problematic when using financial data. Recently, Chambers et al. (1998) have introduced directional distance functions which can be viewed as additive (rather than multiplicative) measures efficiency. Directional distance functions are not restricted to non-negative input and output quantities; in addition, the traditional input and output-oriented measures are nested as special cases of directional distance functions. Consequently, directional distances provide greater flexibility. However, until now, only free disposal hull (FDH) estimators of directional distances (and their conditional and robust extensions) have known statistical properties (Simar and Vanhems, 2012). This paper develops the statistical properties of directional d estimators, which are especially useful when the production set is assumed convex. We first establish that the directional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) estimators share the known properties of the traditional radial DEA estimators. We then use these properties to develop consistent bootstrap procedures for statistical inference about directional distance, estimation of confidence intervals, and bias correction. The methods are illustrated in some empirical examples.     

未决赔款准备金评估的随机性Munich链梯法

精算实务界通常采用链梯法等确定性方法评估未决赔款准备金,这些评估方法存在一定缺陷,一方面不能有效考虑保险公司历史数据中所包含的已决赔款和已报案赔款数据信息,另一方面只能得到未决赔款准备金的均值估计,不能度量不确定性。为了克服这些缺陷,本文结合Mack模型假设和非参数Bootstrap重抽样方法,提出了未决赔款准备金评估的随机性Munich链梯法,并应用R软件对精算实务中的实例给出了数值分析。