艾滋病防治资源投入的效果分析

基于GOALS模型的基本思想,建立了效果分析模型,并针对两种不同的资金分配方案,模拟了两种方案对2006—2010年某地艾滋病流行的影响,并对模拟结果进行了分析.     

Analysis of atomic arrangement in magnetic Fe–Pt nanoparticles

The order parameter S of Fe–Pt nanoparticles is estimated from X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns. The total intensity of a diffraction peak is obtained by Rietveld analysis as well as simply integrating the intensity. The Rietveld analysis is found to provide a plausible value of S even for a sample showing an XRD pattern with broad and overlapped peaks. Another order parameter Q, which is obtained from Mössbauer spectra, is introduced, and it is confirmed that Q is equivalent to the probability of Fe atoms being in the L1₀-type atomic arrangement. The coercivity of Fe–Pt nanoparticles is directly proportional to Q, while it vanishes at S=0.4, indicating that the magnetic property of Fe–Pt nanoparticles has a closer relationship to Q than S.     

Fractional diffusion and reflective boundary condition

Scaling analysis of the magnitude series (volatile series) has been proposed recently to identify possible non-linear/multifractal signatures in the given data [Y. Ashkenazy, et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 86 (2001) 1900; Y. Ashkenazy, et al. Physica A 323 (2003) 19; T. Kalisky, Y. Ashkenazy, S. Havlin. Phys. Rev. E 72 (2005) 011913]. In this article, correlations of volatile series generated from stationary first-order linear feedback process with Gaussian and non-Gaussian innovations are investigated. While volatile correlations corresponding to Gaussian innovations exhibited uncorrelated behavior across all time scales, those of non-Gaussian innovations showed significant deviation from uncorrelated behavior even at large time scales. The results presented raise the intriguing question whether non-Gaussian innovations can be sufficient to realize long-range volatile correlations.     

On the uniqueness of the foliation of spheres of constant mean curvature in asymptotically flat 3-manifolds

In this note we study constant mean curvature surfaces in asymptotically flat 3-manifolds. We prove that, outside a given compact subset in an asymptotically flat 3-manifold with positive mass, stable spheres of given constant mean curvature are unique. Therefore we are able to conclude that the foliation of stable spheres of constant mean curvature in an asymptotically flat 3-manifold with positive mass outside a given compact subset is unique.

     

Growth kinetics of iron boride layers: Dimensional analysis

Dimensional analysis is presented as a powerful tool in the study of the paste boriding process. In particular, a dimensional method is used to study the growth kinetics of the boride layers FeB and Fe₂B. Experiments were performed in AISI 1045 steel and AISI M2 steel, to test the suggested model. Samples of 1045 steel were prepared and treated using boron paste thickness of 3-5 mm, at temperatures of 1193, 1223 and 1273 K, with 2, 4 and 6 h of treatment time. The M2 specimens had boron paste thickness of 3 and 4 mm and temperatures of 1223, 1253 and 1273 K for 2 and 6 h. Results indicate that the growth of boron layers obeys power laws of the form y = αx^β, where α and β constants are a function of the material and the interface of interest. Validation of the model was carried out using experimental data with an average error percentage of 7.6% for Fe₂B in 1045 steel, 15.8% for FeB and 3.4% for Fe₂B in M2 steel.     

Evaluation of Commodity Trading Advisors using fixed and variable and benchmark models

This paper examines the performance of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) using fixed and variable benchmarking models. In order to avoid the troublesome passive and active commodity and managed futures benchmarks (indices) when examining the performance of CTAs, we innovate by using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Because this alternative class has non-linear returns due to long/short positions, and derivatives (i.e., dynamic trading strategies), DEA can alleviate the problems usually associated with these indices. The effectiveness of using benchmarking models in a DEA setting will provide investors with an alternative technique in assessing the performance and identifying efficient CTAs.     

On the Erlang Loss Model with Time Dependent Input

We consider the M(t)/M(t)/m/m queue, where the arrival rate λ(t) and service rate μ(t) are arbitrary (smooth) functions of time. Letting p_n(t) be the probability that n servers are occupied at time t (0≤ n≤ m, t > 0), we study this distribution asymptotically, for m→∞ with a comparably large arrival rate λ(t) = O(m) (with μ(t) = O(1)). We use singular perturbation techniques to solve the forward equation for p_n(t) asymptotically. Particular attention is paid to computing the mean number of occupied servers and the blocking probability p_m(t). The analysis involves several different space-time ranges, as well as different initial conditions (we assume that at t = 0 exactly n₀ servers are occupied, 0≤ n₀≤ m). Numerical studies back up the asymptotic analysis. AMS subject classification: 60K25,34E10 Supported in part by NSF grants DMS-99-71656 and DMS-02-02815     

Bayes估计的进一步研究及其Pitman最优性

对线性模型参数,讨论了Bayes估计的Pitman最优性,将已有结果进行了改进,去掉了附加条件,证明了在Pitman准则下,Bayes估计一致优于最小二乘估计(LSE),在此基础上,提出了一种基于先验信息的方差分量估计,通过和基于LSE的方差分量估计作比较,证明了新估计是无偏估计且有更小的均方误差．最后,证明了在Pitman准则下生长曲线模型参数的Bayes估计优于最佳线性无偏估计．