Probabilistic modeling of computer system availability

System availability is becoming an increasingly important factor in evaluating the behavior of commercial computer systems. This is due to the increased dependence of enterprises on continuously operating computer systems and to the emphasis on fault-tolerant designs. Thus, we expect availability modeling to be of increasing interest to computer system analysts and for performance models and availability models to be used to evaluate combined performance/availability (performability) measures. Since commercial computer systems are repairable, availability measures are of greater interest than reliability measures. Reliability measures are typically used to evaluate nonrepairable systems such as occur in military and aerospace applications. We will discuss system aspects which should be represented in an availability model; however, our main focus is a state of the art summary of analytical and numerical methods used to solve computer system availability models. We will consider both transient and steady-state availability measures and for transient measures, both expected values and distributions. We are developing a program package for system availability modeling and intend to incorporate the best solution methods.     

INFLUENCES OF AVAILABILITY ON PARAMETER ESTIMATES FROM SITE OCCUPANCY MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO SUBMERSED AQUATIC VEGETATION

Site occupancy models are commonly used by ecologists to estimate the probabilities of species site occupancy and of species detection. This study addresses the influence on site occupancy and detection estimates of variation in species availability among surveys within sites. Such variation in availability may result from temporary emigration, nonavailability of the species for detection, and sampling sites spatially when species presence is not uniform within sites. We demonstrate, using Monte Carlo simulations and aquatic vegetation data, that variation in availability and heterogeneity in the probability of availability may yield biases in the expected values of the site occupancy and detection estimates that have traditionally been associated with low‐detection probabilities and heterogeneity in those probabilities. These findings confirm that the effects of availability may be important for ecologists and managers, and that where such effects are expected, modification of sampling designs and/or analytical methods should be considered. Failure to limit the effects of availability may preclude reliable estimation of the probability of site occupancy.     

Minimizing the sum of job completion times on capacitated two-parallel machines

This paper considers a scheduling problem with two identical parallel machines. One has unlimited capacity; the other can only run for a fixed time. A given set of jobs must be scheduled on the two machines with the goal of minimizing the sum of their completion times. The paper proposes an optimal branch and bound algorithm which employs three powerful elements, including an algorithm for computing the upper bound, a lower bound algorithm, and a fathoming condition. The branch and bound algorithm was tested on problems of various sizes and parameters. The results show that the algorithm is quite efficient to solve all the test problems. In particular, the total computation time for the hardest problem is less than 0.1 second for a set of 100 problem instances. An important finding of the tests is that the upper bound algorithm can actually find optimal solutions to a quite large number of problems.     

两不同部件串联可修系统的可用度的一个新的计算方法

本用直接解一组不含时间t的一阶线性偏微分积方程而得到两不同部件可修系统的可用度。     

非稳腔模式计算中Colins公式适用性的分析

Ｃｏｌｉｎｓ公式将几何光学和波动光学联系在一起，能以简单的形式描述相干光在复杂光学系统中的传输，但忽略了光学系统中一些光学元件的衍射损耗。当Ｃｏｌｉｎｓ公式用于激光谐振腔的本征模式计算时，其适用程度与被忽略腔镜的有效菲涅尔数有关。本文用数值方法求解了两组谐振腔本征积分方程，一组应用Ｃｏｌｉｎｓ公司推导，另一组用菲涅尔－惠更斯衍射积分推导，结果表明：对稳定腔Ｃｏｌｉｎｓ公式基本适用；对非稳腔，当被忽略腔镜的有效菲涅尔数＞１时，原则上可以用，当被忽略腔镜的有效菲涅尔数＜１时不适用；对有源非稳腔基本适用。     

Availability allocation and multi-objective optimization for parallel–series systems

Availability allocation is required when the manufacturer is obliged to allocate proper availability to various components in order to design an end product to meet specified requirements. This paper proposes a new multi-objective genetic algorithm, namely simulated annealing based multi-objective genetic algorithm (saMOGA), to resolve the availability allocation and optimization problems of a repairable system, specifically a parallel–series system. Compared with a general multi-objective genetic algorithm, the major feature of the saMOGA is that it can accept a poor solution with a small probability in order to enlarge the searching space and avoid the local optimum. The saMOGA aims to determine the optimal decision variables, i.e. failure rates, repair rates, and the number of components in each subsystem, according to multiple objectives, such as system availability, system cost and system net profit. The proposed saMOGA is compared with three other multi-objective genetic algorithms. Computational results showed that the proposed approach could provide higher solution quality and greater computing efficiency.     

Cost and probabilistic analysis of series systems with mixed standby components

This paper deals with the reliability and availability characteristics of four different series system configurations with mixed standby (include cold standby and warm standby) components. The failure times of the primary and warm standby components are assumed to be exponentially distributed with parameters λ and , respectively. The repair time distribution of each server is also exponentially distributed with parameter μ. We derive the mean time-to-failure, MTTF, and the steady-state availability, A_T(∞), for four configurations and perform comparisons. For all four configurations, comparisons are done for specific values of distribution parameters and of the cost of the components. Finally, the configurations are ranked based on: MTTF, A_T(∞), and cost/benefit where benefit is either MTTF or A_T(∞).     

一类可修系统贮存模型及其可用度的Fiducial推断

针对工程实际建立了一种可修系统贮存模型,并在该模型下,导出了在任意时刻系统可用度函数的解析表达式;将该模型应用到服从威布尔分布的系统中,基于系统贮存寿命试验的完全样本,利用Fiducial方法给出了系统可用度的点估计和置信下限,并进行了大量模拟计算,结果表明,该方法在中小样本的情况下仍可给出较为精确的估计．     

Reliability analysis of a stand-by system with repair and intermediate stocks for failed and repaired units

In this paper we give a reliability analysis of a stand-by system with repair, consisting of N working and N^R stand-by units. Failed and repaired units are collected in intermediate stocks. Concerning the delivery from the intermediate stocks we consider two rules: (i) the collected units are delivered in fixed time intervals; (ii) the units will be delivered when there are k units accumulated. The system fails if a unit that has failed cannot be replaced by a stand-by unit. Using a point process approach we derive approximations for the stationary availability and mean time between failures of the system. Numerical results show that the proposed approximations, which can be handled easily, work well.     

A redundant repairable system with imperfect coverage and fuzzy parameters

This paper proposes a procedure to construct the membership functions of the system characteristics of a redundant repairable system with two primary units and one standby in which the coverage factor is the same for an operating unit failure as that for a standby unit failure. Times to failure and times to repair of the operating and standby units are assumed to follow fuzzified exponential distributions. The α-cut approach is used to extract from the fuzzy repairable system a family of conventional crisp intervals for the desired system characteristics, determined with a set of parametric nonlinear programs using their membership functions. A numerical example is solved successfully to illustrate the practicality of the proposed approach. Because the system characteristics are governed by the membership functions, more information is provided for use by management, and because the redundant system is extended to the fuzzy environment, general repairable systems are represented more accurately and the analytic results are more useful for designers and practitioners.