基于模糊理论的软件寿命周期费用评价模型

软件寿命周期费用评价模型涉及到软件开发、使用和维护过程中各种资源最有效利用的权衡分析。由于软件开发不是一门严谨的精确科学,往往存在大量具有不确定性的需求以及许多未知和不确定因素,所有这些都给软件寿命周期费用评价带来模糊效用。本文将模糊理论应用于软件寿命周期费用的评价,给出了从评价属性模糊值的确定、模糊评价模型的建立,到模型求解和最优方案选择的模糊评价方法,并通过对一个算例的分析,证明了该模型的可行性。     

矿井突水危险性评价模型

用数量化理论 (Ⅱ) 〔1〕研究了矿井突水危险性评价问题, 建立了一个实用的矿井突水危险性评价模型, 为煤矿安全评价开辟了一条新途径。     

基于虚拟样本的火工品可靠性评估

为了提高小样本下火工品可靠性评估的精度,研究了升降法实验及其数据分析方法。结合火工品升降法实验数据的特点,给出了一种数据填充方法,把二元成败型数据转化为虚拟完全样本数据。模拟结果表明,与基于二元成败型数据的估计相比,基于虚拟完全样本数据的位置参数估计基本一致,而刻度参数估计具有更优的统计性质。利用该虚拟样本数据,结合信仰推断方法,给出了火工品可靠性评估方法。最后将该方法应用于某产品的可靠性评估,并与大样本评估方法进行了比较,表明该方法可以在较小样本下实现对高可靠性火工品的可靠性评估。     

化学与社会课程考核的育人导向探索

以积累化学知识为基础,以提升综合素质为目标,探讨了化学与社会课程考核中强化育人价值的途径。始终贯穿立德树人的理念,采用形成性评价考核方式,在课堂测试、课堂讨论、课堂辩论、实验课开设、论文写作、期末测试等环节,注重培育大学生的社会责任感、自主学习能力、实践意识和创新精神。     

Development of a read-across workflow for skin irritation and corrosion predictions

We developed a read-across workflow using the OECD QSAR Toolbox for the prediction of skin irritation and corrosion. In the workflow, we gathered analogues using an improved profiler for skin irritation and corrosion to define valid categories. In addition, we refined categories by removing chemicals based on melting points and structural features. Finally, prediction results were obtained using our self-determined rule for read-across. In this rule, we decided the number of analogues from which the read-across is performed, analogue selection criteria (i.e. high similarity vs. near log P_ow) and prediction rule (i.e. majority vs. unanimity). We created a program for the optimization of read-across workflows. We applied this program to 313 chemicals in the training set and sought the optimized workflows among >1000 possible choices of profilers and ways of subcategorization and data gap filling. Use of the optimized workflows provided highly accurate, unbiased, user-independent and reproducible read-across predictions. The prediction results obtained from read-across workflows can be used for the selection of in vitro test methods or as part of the weight-of-evidence approaches in the Integrated Approach on Testing and Assessment for skin irritation and corrosion. Moreover, these results can be used for screening purposes and/or preliminary hazard assessment.     

基于投影寻踪的有机废弃物堆肥水溶性有机物荧光特性评价

水溶性有机物荧光特性是评价有机废弃物堆肥腐殖化程度的重要手段之一。针对现有方法大都局限于腐殖化程度的定性表征等问题,基于投影寻踪方法,该研究开展了堆肥腐熟程度分级评价的定量表征。通过对不同来源有机废弃物堆肥过程中样品水溶性有机物(DOM)荧光特性参数获取,采用统计分析表明,荧光参数I₄₃₆/I₃₈₃,FLR,P_HA/Pro,A₄/A₁,r_(A,C)两两之间显著相关(p<0.01),可作为综合评价指标。在此基础上,确定完全腐熟(Ⅰ级)、较腐熟(Ⅱ级)、基本腐熟(Ⅲ级)、未腐熟堆肥(Ⅳ级)4个腐熟等级荧光参数取值区间。模型运算得到各等投影值分别为2.01～2.22(Ⅰ级)、1.21～2.0(Ⅱ级)、0.57～1.2(Ⅲ级)、0.10～0.56(Ⅳ级)。模型验证证实,各样品的实际腐熟度等级与模型所得到腐熟与未腐熟样品的评价结果准确率为100%,因此,该评价方法对有机废弃物的实际堆肥具有重要的指导意义。     

Concentration of ochratoxin A in coffee products and probabilistic health risk assessment

Coffee is a beverage that people enjoy a lot in their daily lives and is an integral part of people's social life. In this study, the detection of ochratoxin A (OTA) in coffee was carried out by High-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence (HPLC-FLD) detectors. Furthermore, the amount of ochratoxin A (OTA), Margin of exposure (MOEs), and Hazard quotient (HQ) in different types of coffees; instant, classic, and roasted coffee were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The average OTA concentration was in the rage of 3.6 to 26.6 µg/kg. The content of classic and instant coffee found to have.OTA, is below the maximum limit defined by the European Union legislation. The maximum limit for these two types of coffee is 10 µg/kg. The daily intakes of the OTA through classic and instant coffee were also found to be lower than the Tolerance daily intake proposed by Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). MOEs (neoplastic effect) in adults was classic coffee (171026) > roasted coffee (15390) > instant coffee (8549) and also MOEs (non-neoplastic effects) in children was classic coffee (55790) > roasted coffee (5020) > instant coffee (2789). Consumers of instant coffee are at cancer risk based on neoplastic effects and also consumers of instant coffee and roasted coffee are at cancer risk based on non-neoplastic effects (MOEs lower than 10,000 value). HQ (nephrotoxic effect) in adults was instant coffee (0.132) > roasted coffee (0.097) > classic coffee (0.012). HQ due to consumption of coffee products was lower than 1, hence consumers are at safe non-cancer risk. Therefore, it is recommended reducing the concentration of mycotoxins in coffee products.     

Hybrid acoustic synthesis – Assessment of rear final drives in an early stage of development,on the basis of transfer path analyses and test bench measurements

In order to be able to assess the acoustic characteristics of new rear axles respectively rear final drives at an early stage of development, a hybrid evaluation procedure was developed: this makes it possible to compare various construction stages on the basis of vehicle and test bench measurements. Transfer path analyses are used to calculate what contribution of the sound pressure on the driver’s ear is made up of structure-borne sound from the rear final drive (based on operational acceleration measured on the test bench and the bodywork’s transmission characteristics measured on the vehicle), which is used to classify the various construction stages. To use the test bench measurements for forecasting, the test object must have vibration characteristics that are as close as possible to those of the vehicle. In view of the above, comprehensive comparative measurements were taken with the help of artificial excitation and operational excitation. The measurement positions identified in the process were used to validate the calculation method by operating the very same rear final drive on the test bench and in a vehicle. In both cases, the rear final drive’s contribution of the total vehicle interior noise level was calculated, in one case on the basis of excitation from the vehicle measurement and in the other case on the basis of excitation from the test bench measurement. The good correlation between the vehicle-based and test bench-based calculations confirmed the applicability of the method. The “virtual” installation of the rear final drive enables faster construction stage comparisons because there is no need for alteration work on the vehicle and the rear final drive that is to be compared can simply be integrated into the existing test bench environment.     

Validating a concept inventory for measuring students’ probabilistic reasoning: The case of reasoning within the context of a raffle

Assessing students’ conceptions related to independence of events and determining probabilities from a sample space has been the focus of research in probability education for over 40 years. While we know a lot from past studies about predictable ways students may reason with well-known tasks, developing a diagnostic assessment that can be used by teachers to inform instruction demands the use of familiar and unfamiliar contexts. This paper presents the current work of a research team whose aim is to create a formative concept inventory with strong evidence of validity that uses a psychometric model to confidently predict whether a student exhibits one or more misconception across many items. We illustrate this process in this paper using a particular item with a context of a raffle aimed to measure whether a student reasons with misconceptions related to independence or equiprobability. The results of two aspects of the validity process: cognitive interviews to assess response processes on individual items, and a large-scale administration to examine internal structure of the concept inventory revealed difficulties in assessing students’ reasoning about these key probability concepts and trends in the prevalence of misconceptions across grades. Results can provide guidance for others aiming to develop assessments in mathematics education and also support further possibilities for research into understanding students’ reasoning about independence and sample space.