Analysis of risk bounds in partially specified additive factor models

The study of worst case scenarios for risk measures (e.g. the Value at Risk) when the underlying risk vector (or portfolio of risks) is not completely specified is a central topic in the literature on robust risk measurement. In this paper we discuss partially specified factor models as introduced in Bernard et al. (2017) in more detail for the class of additive factor models which admit more explicit results. These results allow to describe in more detail the reduction of risk bounds obtainable by this method in dependence on the degree of positive resp. negative dependence induced by the systematic risk factors. The insight may help in applications of this reduction method to get a better qualitative impression on the range of influence of the partially specified factor structure.     

A multi-stage financial hedging approach for the procurement of manufacturing materials

This paper addresses the problem of mitigating procurement risk that arises from volatile commodity prices by proposing a hedging strategy within a multi-stage time frame. The proposed multi-stage hedging strategy requires a commodity futures position to be correctly initialised and rebalanced with adequate volumes of short/long positions, so as to reduce the volatility in the total procurement cost that would otherwise be generated by varying commodity spot prices. The novelty in the approach is the introduction of the rebalancing of commodity futures position at defined intermediate stages. To obtain an efficient or near optimal multi-stage hedging strategy, a discrete-time stochastic control model (DSCM) is developed. Numerical experiments and Monte Carlo simulation are used to show that the proposed multi-stage hedging strategy compares favourably with the minimal-variance hedge and the one-stage hedge. A close-form optimal solution is also presented for the case when procurement volume and price are independent.     

On Controllability And Maximum Principle for Discrete Inclusions ∗ ∗A part of the paper was written while the first author was visiting the laboratory of Prof.S.Suzuki,Department of Mechanical Engineering,Sophia University,Tokyo,Japan$ef:

The paper develops sufficient conditions for controllability and necessary conditions in different forms of the maximum principle for extremal solutions of discrete inclusions. The objective function is assumed to be locally lipschitzian only     

Dew Points of Binary Methane + Water: Measurement and Correlation

Experimental measurements of dew points for four methane + water mixtures between 2.6 2 10 5 Pa and 100.4 2 10 5 Pa and the temperature range from 225.5 K to 272.7 K were carried out. The experimental results were analysed in terms of both an equation of state model and an excess function-equation of state method, which reproduced the experimental data within AAD from 1.8 to 3.1 K and from 0.9 to 1.8 K, respectively.     

Similar Transposed Sets of Polynomials

This paper studies the effectiveness of another kind of transposed sets of polynomials of one complex variable in closed regions, open discs, at the origin and for all entire functions. In addition, an upper bound for the order of these sets in this case is obtained.     

Total Syntheses of Cystobactamids and Structural Confirmation of Cystobactamid 919‐2

The cystobactamids are a family of antibacterial natural products with unprecedented chemical scaffolds that are active against both Gram‐positive and Gram‐negative pathogens. Herein, we describe the first total synthesis of cystobactamid 919‐2 from three fragments. Our convergent synthesis enabled both the confirmation of the correct structure and the determination of the absolute configuration of cystobactamid 919‐2.     

Risk externalities and too big to fail

This paper establishes the case for a fallacy of economies of scale in large aggregate institutions and the effects of scale risks. The problem of rogue trading and excessive risk taking is taken as a case example. Assuming (conservatively) that a firm exposure and losses are limited to its capital while external losses are unbounded, we establish a condition for a firm not to be allowed to be too big to fail. In such a case, the expected external losses second derivative with respect to the firm capital at risk is positive. Examples and analytical results are obtained based on simplifying assumptions and focusing exclusively on the risk externalities that firms too big to fail can have.     

Irreducibility and the distribution of some exponential sums

We relate the distribution of the absolute value of some generalized Gauss sums to the absolute irreducibility of some polynomials in two variables in characteristic 0 and p.