Using a risk-based approach to project scheduling: A case illustration from semiconductor manufacturing

This paper introduces a risk-based optimization method to schedule projects. The method uses risk mitigation and optimal control techniques to minimize variables such as the project duration or the cost estimate at completion. Mitigation actions reduce the risk impacts that may affect the system. A model predictive control approach is used to determine the set of mitigation actions to be executed and the time in which they are taken. A real-life project in the field of semiconductor manufacturing has been taken as an example to show the benefits of the method in a deterministic case and a Monte Carlo simulation has also been carried out.     

Constant dividend barrier in a risk model with interclaim-dependent claim sizes

The risk model with interclaim-dependent claim sizes proposed by Boudreault et al. [Boudreault, M., Cossette, H., Landriault, D., Marceau, E., 2006. On a risk model with dependence between interclaim arrivals and claim sizes. Scand. Actur. J., 265-285] is studied in the presence of a constant dividend barrier. An integro-differential equation for some Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty functions is derived. We show that its solution can be expressed as the solution to the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function in the same risk model with the absence of a barrier and a combination of two linearly independent solutions to the associated homogeneous integro-differential equation. Finally, we analyze the expected present value of dividend payments before ruin in the same class of risk models. An homogeneous integro-differential equation is derived and then solved. Its solution can be expressed as a different combination of the two fundamental solutions to the homogeneous integro-differential equation associated to the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function.     

Applications of a multi-state risk factor/mortality model in life insurance

Mortality rates are known to depend on socio-economic and behavioral risk factors, and actuarial calculations for life insurance policies usually reflect this. It is typically assumed, however, that these risk factors are observed only at policy issue, and the impact of changes that occur later is not considered. In this paper, we present a discrete-time, multi-state model for risk factor changes and mortality. It allows one to more accurately describe mortality dynamics and quantify variability in mortality. This model is extended to reflect health status and then used to analyze the impact of selective lapsation of life insurance policies and to predict mortality under reentry term insurance.     

Corroborating study on the absolute configurations of trigochinins A–C

Trigochinins A–C (1–3) are three highly oxygenated daphnane-type diterpenes isolated from Trigonostemon chinensis. Their structures with the absolute configurations were initially assigned by a combination of spectroscopic data, X-ray crystallography (Mo Kα radiation) study and CD analysis. In the current study, the absolute configurations of trigochinins A–C were confirmed by single crystal X-ray diffraction (Cu Kα radiation) study, CD spectral analogy, and theoretical ECD study by using quantum chemical TDDFT calculations.     

平面ISODYNE法及其在复合材料力学中的应用

由J. T. Pindera提出的平面isodyne法是散光法的一种发展。具有非破坏性直接测取受力物体内部应力的特点。不需要大功率的激光器,条纹清晰,无畸变,对于平面应力问题可以得到应力分量的全部信息。在复合材料力学、断裂力学和接触问题等领域有广泛的应用前景。文章闸述了该方法的原理和技术,并应用它得到一受三点弯曲荷载的有裂纹的复合材料梁粘结层的应力分布。     

Study on the absolute configuration of (−)-palau’amine

The absolute stereochemistry of the immunosuppressive pyrrole-imidazole alkaloid (−)-palau’amine from the marine sponge Stylotella aurantium is analyzed by CD spectroscopy. With the help of a series of model compounds it is shown that the CD spectrum of (−)-palau’amine can be explained based on the assumption that the pyrrolopyrazinone partial structure is planar in 2,2,2-trifluoroethanol (TFE). Surprisingly, the natural product (−)-dibromophakellin shows the opposite Cotton effect, despite exhibiting the same absolute configuration.     

Composition determination of binary polymer mixtures by size exclusion chromatography with light scattering detection

<正>Base on the principle of absolute quantification of size exclusion chromatography(SEC),a light scattering(LS) detector coupled with a concentration detector(refractive index detector) is utilized to determine the compositions of complicated binary mixtures.A theoretical analysis predicts that the response factors for both LS and RI detectors are linear functions with the composition of any specified polymer mixtures in the binary polymer mixtures.Two pairs of complicated binary mixtures were used to test the theory mentioned in the present paper,and the experimental results show an excellent accordance with the theory.     

Risk estimation of infectious diseases determines the effectiveness of the control strategy

Usually, whether to take vaccination or not is a voluntary decision, which is determined by many factors, from societal factors (such as religious belief and human rights) to individual preferences (including psychology and altruism). Facing the outbreaks of infectious diseases, different people often have different estimations on the risk of infectious diseases. So, some persons are willing to vaccinate, but other persons are willing to take risks. In this paper, we establish two different risk assessment systems using the technique of dynamic programming, and then compare the effects of the two different systems on the prevention of diseases on complex networks. One is that the perceived probability of being infected for each individual is the same (uniform case). The other is that the perceived probability of being infected is positively correlated to individual degrees (preferential case). We show that these two risk assessment systems can yield completely different results, such as, the effectiveness of controlling diseases, the time evolution of the number of infections, and so on.     

Theoretical and analytical Radial Distribution Function for non-polar mixtures

The theoretical and analytical Radial Distribution Function (RDF) for non-polar mixtures is presented, and the estimation methods of model parameters (such as the minimum molecular diameter d_ii, mean calibration factor of volume β_V and mean free path of relative motion λ_r,ij) are discussed. The calculated thermodynamic properties for H_e-H₂ fluid mixtures by this RDF fit well with that of MC simulations and classical results from the Yukawa-type EOS, in which the Double Yukawa (DY) potential was used and the quantum effect was considered. Compared with the semi-empirical RDF expressions in references, the advantage of this theoretical and analytical RDF is that it can be used for all kinds of potential functions of non-polar molecules, and it covers a very wide range of temperatures and densities. The extensive practical application of this RDF for chemistry, physics and technology needs further investigation.     

First- and second-price sealed-bid auctions applied to push and pull supply contracts

We investigate a newsvendor-type retailer sourcing problem under demand uncertainty who has the option to source from multiple suppliers. The suppliers’ manufacturing costs are private information. A widely used mechanism to find the least costly supplier under asymmetric information is to use a sealed-bid reverse auction. We compare the combinations of different simple auction formats (first- and second-price) and risk sharing supply contracts (push and pull) under full contract compliance, both for risk-neutral and risk-averse retailer and suppliers. We show the superiority of a first-price push auction for a risk-neutral retailer. However, only the pull contracts lead to supply chain coordination. If the retailer is sufficiently risk-averse, the pull is preferred over the push contract. If suppliers are risk-averse, the first-price push auction remains the choice for the retailer. Numerical examples illustrate the allocation of benefits between the retailer and the (winning) supplier for different number of bidders, demand uncertainty, cost uncertainty, and degree of risk-aversion.