财智月刊

黄金的魅力：风险与回报 文章认为，全球近年投资黄金的热情高涨，是因投资者看淡未来美国经济。然而，金价未来走向却充满着悬念，金融投资业内人士对此莫衷一是。投资者需根据自己承受风险能力的大小，理性地做出抉择。人们现在最迫切想知道的是黄金是否仍有投资价值。金价近期似乎已达到了遥不可及的高度，接近了30岁以下人群从未见过的高位。不过据投资研究机构Leuthold Group的观点，从历史角度看，以及与股票相比，金价仍不算贵。虽有众多黄金迷们仍对黄金的这一现象困惑不解，但还是有专业人士建议，可在投资组合中为黄金留出3％-5％的比重。     

共享单车平台定价策略研究

共享单车市场规模的高速增长,形成了以摩拜单车和OFO共享单车为代表的双寡头竞争局面,共享单车平台的定价策略在平台竞争过程中起了重要作用.通过构建两阶段Hotelling双寡头竞争模型,探讨双寡头在市场均衡状态下稳定的定价机制.研究表明,在阶段一以用户扩张速度最大化为目标的平台1和以利润最大化为目标的平台2为争取市场份额展开竞争,均衡情况下平台1占优的定价策略为低接入费用、高租赁费用,其条件为用户感知的平台横向差异化程度较高;平台2占优的定价策略为高接入费用、低租赁费用,其条件为用户感知的平台横向差异化程度较低.在阶段二两平台均以利润最大化为目标时,网络外部性大小、用户感知的平台横向差异化程度以及单车与用户匹配概率对两平台竞争的均衡结果均有一定的影响;平台为获取更多的市场份额和平台利润,最优的定价策略为采用高接入费用、低租赁费用,其条件为该平台单车与用户的匹配概率较高并且交易成本较低.     

长江电力：状年期投融资与风险

在未来发展过程中,不论是国际化拓展还是投资新兴产业,长江电力需要在加息通道中关注资金来源问题。尽管长江电力在降低财务费用方面举措众多,但目前仍有进一步改善的空间,比如清理与主业及未来发展无甚关联的金融投资。除了财务风险与H股投资风险敞口外,长江电力尚需关注宏观经济、国际化、通货膨胀以及国电力项目投资等风险因素。     

Smoothness of certain functions in two kinds of risk models with a barrier dividend strategy

In this paper,we study the smoothness of certain functions in two kinds of risk models with a barrier dividend strategy.Mainly using technique from the piecewise deterministic Markov processes theory,we prove that the function is continuously differentiable in the first risk model.Using the weak infinitesimal generator method of Markov processes,we prove that the function is twice continuously differentiable in the second risk model.Intego-differential equations satisfied by them are derived.     

包含第三方物流商的易腐商品供应链中最优决策与合作研究

本文在前人研究基础上,加人物流商这一供应链决策主体,研究了包含第三方物流商的易腐商品供应链中的最优决策与合作问题.分别研究了分散决策,局部合作下的决策和集中决策下的各供应链成员的决策和收益模型.之后针对包含三个供应链成员的合作问题设计了基于时间的价格折扣分配和赔偿合同相结合的三方契约.最后通过数值试验,验证了理论结论:随着合作程度的提高,供应链各成员的收益也提高.并揭示了一些理论结论中不易观察的现象:随着成员风险厌恶程度、产品的易腐程度和价格弹性的增加,通过合作更能够避免收益损失,因而在这些情况下,更有合作的必要.     

The Ruin Probability in the Presence of Extended Regular Variation and Optimal Investment

Considering the classical model with risky investment, we are interested in the ruin probability that is minimized by a suitably chosen investment strategy for a capital market index. For claim sizes with common distribution of extended regular variation, starting from an integro-differential equation for the maximal survival probability, we find that the corresponding ruin probability as a function of the initial surplus is also extended regular variation.     

对称熵损失下的一类指数族刻度参数估计

In this paper we investigate the estimator for the rth power of the scale parameter in a class of exponential family under symmetric entropy loss L（θ, δ） = v（θ/δ ＋ δ/θ - 2）. An exact form of the minimum risk equivariant estimator under symmetric entropy loss is given, and the minimaxity of the minimum risk equivariant estimator is proved. The results with regard to admissibility and inadmissibility of a class of linear estimators of the form cT（X） ＋ d are given, where T（X） Gamma（v, θ）.     

Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model

In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc cxponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.     

A New Quantum Secure Direct Communication Scheme with Authentication

A new quantum secure direct communication （QSDC） scheme with authentication is proposed based on polarized photons and EPR pairs. EPR pairs are used to transmit information, while polarized photons are used to detect Eve and their encoding bases are used to transmit authentication information. Alice and Bob have their own identity number which is shared by legal users only. The identity number is encoded on the bases of polarized photons and distilled if there is no Eve. Compared with other QSDC schemes with authentication, this new scheme is considerably easier and less expensive to implement in a practical setting.     

数据挖掘在供应链金融风险控制中的应用

“供应链金融”是近年来金融机构针对供应链上下游企业提供的一种全新的金融业务，这项业务在银行方面也存在一定的风险。针对由经销商造成的还款风险，利用数据挖掘技术获得一组低还款能力经销商的特征属性。金融机构能据此识别不同还款能力的经销商，并针对不同经销商制定不同的金融政策以控制和规避金融风险。