山西省农民家庭消费水平和结构分析

本文利用统计计量学方法对山西省农民家庭消费水平和消费结构的变化及原因进行了实证分析。建立了山西省农民人均消费的消费函数和山西省农民总消费支出与食品、衣着、住房、日用品、燃料及文化生活服务支出的关系模型，并通过模型分析解释了农民的消费结构，也为决策者提供一些有效的参考资料。     

BP神经网络在上海住宅市场需求预测中的应用

人工神经网络是近期发展最快的人工智能领域研究成果之一 ,本文在介绍 BP神经网络的有关原理的基础上 ,建立了一个上海住宅市场的 BP神经网络模型 ,并通过该模型对上海住宅市场的需求进行了预测和分析 .分析结果表明人工神经网络方法在住宅市场需求预测中的应用是可行的并且是有效的 .     

Heterochain model for simultaneous long‐chain branching and crosslinking. III. Multicomponent polymerization

The matrix formula developed in the context of heterochain theory, M?_w = M?_wp + WF ( I ? M )^?1 S , was applied to describe the molecular weight development during free‐radical multicomponent polymerization. All of the required probabilistic parameters are expressed in terms of the kinetic‐rate constants and the various concentrations associated with them. In free‐radical polymerization, the number of heterochain types, N, needs to be extrapolated to infinity, and such extrapolation is conducted with only three different N values. This matrix formula can be used as a benchmark test if other approximate approaches can give reasonable estimates of the weight‐average molecular weights. The moment equations with the average pseudo‐kinetic‐rate constants for branching and crosslinking reactions may provide poor estimates when the copolymer composition drift during polymerization is very significant. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 2801–2812, 2004     

BMAP/G/1 queue with correlated arrivals of customers and disasters

We consider a single server queue with disasters where the arrivals of customers and disasters are correlated. When a disaster occurs, it removes all the customers in the system and there requires repair time for the system to be operated normally. The stationary queue length distribution at the embedded points and at an arbitrary time are presented.     

Delay-dependent stochastic stability of delayed Hopfield neural networks with Markovian jump parameters

In this paper, the problem of stochastic stability for a class of time-delay Hopfield neural networks with Markovian jump parameters is investigated. The jumping parameters are modeled as a continuous-time, discrete-state Markov process. Without assuming the boundedness, monotonicity and differentiability of the activation functions, some results for delay-dependent stochastic stability criteria for the Markovian jumping Hopfield neural networks (MJDHNNs) with time-delay are developed. We establish that the sufficient conditions can be essentially solved in terms of linear matrix inequalities.     

有效需求与通货紧缩的统计关系研究

本文通过对有效需求一物价指数统计模型的研究 ,估计出了有效需求方程 ,并且通过对模型的估计结果分析得出如下结论 :物价指数对有效需求的影响是显著的 :通货紧缩、物价指数持续走低是有效需求不足的主要原因 ,治理通货紧缩应该是解决我国有效需求不足的主要任务。     

一个新的最优模糊存储模型

提出一个新的具有积压定单的关于模糊订购量的模糊存储模型.在模糊函数原理下,给出了模糊总存储成本.为了寻找最优解,把最优模糊存储模型转化为双目标最优化模型,利用L ingo8.0求解不等式约束问题,我们发现最优解都是确定的实数.此外,当模糊订购量和模糊总需求都是三角形(或权重均为1/2梯形)模糊数时,我们提出模型的最优解与经典的具有积压定单存储模型具有相同的结果.     

On bulk-service MAP/PH L,N /1/N G-Queues with repeated attempts

We consider a retrial queue with a finite buffer of size N, with arrivals of ordinary units and of negative units (which cancel one ordinary unit), both assumed to be Markovian arrival processes. The service requirements are of phase type. In addition, a PH^L,N bulk service discipline is assumed. This means that the units are served in groups of size at least L, where 1≤ L≤ N. If at the completion of a service fewer than L units are present at the buffer, the server switches off and waits until the buffer length reaches the threshold L. Then it switches on and initiates service for such a group of units. On the contrary, if at the completion of a service L or more units are present at the buffer, all units enter service as a group. Units arriving when the buffer is full are not lost, but they join a group of unsatisfied units called “orbit”. Our interest is in the continuous-time Markov chain describing the state of the queue at arbitrary times, which constitutes a level dependent quasi-birth-and-death process. We start by analyzing a simplified version of our queueing model, which is amenable to numerical calculation and is based on spatially homogeneous quasi-birth-and-death processes. This leads to modified matrix-geometric formulas that reveal the basic qualitative properties of our algorithmic approach for computing performance measures. AMS Subject Classification: Primary 60K25 Secondary 68M20 90B22.     

Stability of Markovian structure observed in high frequency foreign exchange data

Contrary to the common sense in economics and financial engineering, price fluctuations at very fine level of motion exhibit various evidences against the efficient market hypothesis. We attempt to investigate this issue by studying extensive amount of foreign currency exchange data for over five years at the finest level of resolution. We specifically focus on the proposed stability in binomial conditional probabilities originally found in much smaller examples of financial time series. In order to handle very large data, we have written an efficient program in C that automatically generates those conditional probabilities. It is found that the stability is maintained for extremely large time duration that covers almost the entire period. Based on the length of conditions for which the conditional probabilities are distinguishable each other, we identify the length of memory being less than 3 movements.