Decision support for the career field selection process at the US Air Force Academy

Each year, the US Air Force Academy graduates nearly 1000 young men and women. To support the decision of which cadets will be classified into which career fields, we describe a linear programming formulation with appealing computational properties that enable it as the core of a decision support tool. We explore methods for measuring and balancing cadets' class standing, Air Force career field requirements, and cadets' career field preferences in the context of this model. Our computational experiments demonstrate the improvement of this method over previous classification approaches, yielding more than 10% increase in the number of cadets assigned to their top career field choice and yielding nearly a 100% reduction in the number of cadets not receiving any of their career field choices. We also explore alternative methods for measuring cadets' career field preferences and demonstrate the positive effect of the new measurement scheme on the overall classification. Because of the short running time of this model, it will serve as a flexible, real-time component of the Academy's classification process.     

The time path of the marginal cost of oil: The turning point and the subsequent upward drift

The gradual exhaustion of existing deposits of a depletable non-renewable resource such as oil tends to shift the supply price curve of the resource upwards, increasing its marginal cost. Advances in technologies for exploration and production act as a brake on such upward shifts. Thus, there is a tug-of-war between the gradual exhaustion of existing deposits and technological progress. Using a recently developed constrained least-squares regression technique, we demonstrate that technological progress was the dominant force of the two during the first part of this century, causing a secular drop in marginal costs, but that this situation eventually was reversed, and that the gradual exhaustion of deposits gained the upper hand, causing marginal costs to increase. The turning point occurred around 1971–72. We also discuss the forecasting of the possible current upward drift of marginal costs.     

OPTIMAL RECOVERY OF A SHARED RESOURCE STOCK: A DIFFERENTIAL GAME MODEL WITH EFFICIENT MEMORY EQUILIBRIA

We consider an optimal two-country management of depleted transboundary renewable resources. The management problem is modelled as a differential game, in which memory strategies are used. The countries negotiate an agreement among Pareto efficient harvesting programs. They monitor the evolution of the agreement, and they memorize deviations from the agreement in the past. If the agreement is observed by the countries, they continue cooperation. If one of the countries breaches the contract, then both countries continue in a noncooperative management mode for the rest of the game. This noncooperative option is called a threat policy. The credibility of the threats is guaranteed by their equilibrium property. Transfer or side payments are studied as a particular cooperative management program. Transfer payments allow one country to buy out the other from the fishery for the purpose of eliminating the inefficiency caused by the joint access to the resources. It is shown that efficient equilibria can be reached in a class of resource management games, which allow the use of memory strategies. In particular, continuous time transfer payments (e.g., a share of the harvest) should be used instead of a once-and-for-all transfer payment.     

Nature of Nonlocality in Triangle Network based on Elegant Joint Measurement

Defining nonlocality in a no-input closed quantum network scenario is a new area of interest nowadays. Gisin, in [Entropy 21, 325 (2019)], proposed a possible condition for non-tri-locality of the trivial no-input closed network scenario, triangle network, by introducing a new kind of joint measurement bases and a probability bound. In [npj Quantum Information (2020) 6:70] they found a shred of numerical evidence in support of Gisin's probability bound. Now based on that probability bound, it finds the nature of the correlation in a triangle network scenario. This study observes how far the probability lies from that Gisin's bound with every possible combination of entangled and local pure states distributed from three independent quantum sources. Here, it uses the generalized Elegant Joint Measurements bases for each party and find that there is a dependency of non-locality on the entanglement of these joint measurement bases. It also checks the probability bound for the polygon structure.     

The selection efficiency of tournaments

We discuss tournaments in terms of their efficiency as probabilistic mechanisms that select high-quality alternatives (“players”) in a noisy environment. We characterize the selection efficiency of three such mechanisms – contests, binary elimination tournaments, and round-robin tournaments – depending on the shape of the distribution of players’ quality, the number of players, and noise level. The results have implications as to how, and under what circumstances, the efficiency of tournament-based selection can be manipulated.     

水资源持续利用的多目标决策模型的建立

可持续发展战略的实施,资源的可持续利用是关键.针对日趋短缺的淡水资源,根据多目标决策理论,以同时追求经济、环境、社会效益为主要目标提出了其可持续利用的多目标决策模型,并举例说明了模型的应用,旨在为决策者提供淡水利用规划的依据.     

影子价格及其在资源配置中的应用研究

为了应用影子价格实现资源在全社会的最优配置,本文通过线性规划的对偶理论和非线性优化问题的Kuhn-Tucker条件揭示了影子价格的本质,在资源配置优化问题中线性规划模型中的影子价格就是其对偶问题的最优解,非线性规划模型中的影子价格就是与最优解相对应的拉格朗日乘数。根据松紧定理解释了资源影子价格与资源限量之间的关系,还对线性规划模型与非线性规划模型中影子价格的不同表现进行了分析。最后阐明了影子价格在资源配置中的应用。     

PAST AND FUTURE MANAGEMENT OF A COLLAPSED FISHERY: THE BAY OF BISCAY ANCHOVY

Abstract We analyze the efficiency of the international management of the Bay of Biscay anchovy. While a sharing agreement between France and Spain has been in place since 1992, the fish stock collapsed in 2005 and the fishery closed from 2005 to spring 2010. We consider differences in production technologies between both countries and calibrate our model using data from 1987 to 2009. Our results suggest two sources of rent dissipation under the existing sharing agreement: inefficient quota allocation and production inefficiencies due to inflexible national regulations. We discuss several alternatives to improve management.     

ON THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IN AN ECONOMY WITH PERFECTLY SUBSTITUTABLE EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES

Abstract A model of sustainable economic growth in an economy with two types of exhaustible resources is analyzed. The resources are assumed to be perfect substitutes with marginal rate of substitution varying over time. The optimal control framework is used to characterize the optimal paths under the maximin criterion. It is shown that the resource with increasing productivity is not used before the constant productivity resource is depleted. Afterwards the resource with an increasing productivity is asymptotically depleted as well. The results are based on an assumption that transversality conditions hold. A new sufficient condition for the transversality conditions is derived. Finally, an analogue of Hartwick’s rule for this non‐autonomous case is established.     

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin,China

The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators’ standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future.