SWEIA艾滋病毒传染模型及应用

人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)是一种严重威胁生命的病毒,感染艾滋病毒患者一般经历四个阶段:i)艾滋病毒阴性的窗口期(W);ii)阳性的无症状潜伏期(E);iii)有症状期(Ⅰ);以及iv)移除阶段(A).为深入研究艾滋病传播过程,建立SWEIA艾滋病毒传染模型,定义基本再生数,分析无病与地方病平衡点的存在性和局部稳定性,根据2004至2015年中国艾滋病患者数据,采用遗传算法对SWEIA模型中参数进行估计.通过对基本再生数敏感性分析以及模型数值随参数不同而产生的变化,揭示艾滋病窗口期的接触率是影响艾滋病流行的主要原因之一.     

弹性屈曲梁在参数激励下的倍周期分叉

考虑一端具有干摩擦的屈曲梁在轴向激励下的非线性振动系统，利用Ｆｌｏｑｕｅｔ理论和谐波平衡法，研究了系统中初始屈曲度、阻尼、频率、激励振幅等各种物理参数对１／２业谐共振情况下倍周期分叉的影响，其规律与以往的数值模拟结果具有很好的一致性。     

A short history of chemometrics: a personal view

This article traces chemometrics back to its origins in scientific computing in the 1960s. Its development is compared in other computational disciplines such as bioinformatics. The change in geographical origins of papers published in the core chemometrics literature is discussed. It is concluded that the level of core activities in this area has hardly changed over several decades, whilst there has been a significant expansion in non‐expert users of packages over this period. It is estimated that around 2% of people encountering chemometrics in their research can be considered real experts. The problems of non‐experts using chemometrics methods with limited knowledge of the statistical fundamentals are explored. The contrasting development of chemometrics compared with, for example, computational chemistry and bioinformatics, is interpreted in terms of the changing financial pressures on research over its key developmental phase, as illustrated by the change in academic finance in the UK over the past 50 years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical periods of perturbations of reversible rigidly isochronous centers

In this paper we discuss bifurcation of critical periods in an m-th degree time-reversible system, which is a perturbation of an n-th degree homogeneous vector field with a rigidly isochronous center at the origin. We present period-bifurcation functions as integrals of analytic functions which depend on perturbation coefficients and reduce the problem of critical periods to finding zeros of a judging function. This procedure gives not only the number of critical periods bifurcating from the period annulus but also the location of these critical periods. Applying our procedure to the case n=m=2 we determine the maximum number of critical periods and their location; to the case n=m=3 we investigate the bifurcation of critical periods up to the first order in ε and obtain the expression of the second period-bifurcation function when the first one vanishes.     

On the discrete-time Geo/G/1 queue with randomized vacations and at most J vacations

This paper examines a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queue, where the server may take at most J − 1 vacations after the essential vacation. In this system, messages arrive according to Bernoulli process and receive corresponding service immediately if the server is available upon arrival. When the server is busy or on vacation, arriving messages have to wait in the queue. After the messages in the queue are served exhaustively, the server leaves for the essential vacation. At the end of essential vacation, the server activates immediately to serve if there are messages waiting in the queue. Alternatively, the server may take another vacation with probability p or go into idle state with probability (1 − p) until the next message arrives. Such pattern continues until the number of vacations taken reaches J. This queueing system has potential applications in the packet-switched networks. By applying the generating function technique, some important performance measures are derived, which may be useful for network and software system engineers. A cost model, developed to determine the optimum values of p and J at a minimum cost, is also studied.     

主惯导旋转调制对传递对准性能的影响

旋转调制技术在调制惯性器件常值误差,有效提高惯导系统长航时导航精度的同时,也引入了由系统旋转而造成的速度误差以旋转周期和旋转周期二倍频波动,这种波动对以速度为匹配量的传递对准有一定的影响。从旋转调制系统的误差特性出发,分析了旋转调制对以速度为匹配量传递对准的有利和不利影响,并针对不同的旋转调制周期进行了仿真验证,仿真结果表明当旋转周期远大于舒勒周期时,旋转调制引起的不利和有利影响都很小,可忽略不计;当旋转周期远小于舒勒周期时,旋转调制可提高子惯导的方位对准精度,但延长了系统的传递对准时间。例如,当旋转周期为3(°)/s时,水平对准时间由3 min延长到4 min,而对准精度由1.2′提高到0.2′;方位对准时间由10 min延长到16 min,而对准精度由2.2′提高到0.4′。     

A Dynamic Supplier Selection and Inventory Management Model for a Serial Supply Chain with a Novel Supplier Price Break Scheme and Flexible Time Periods

A new supplier price break and discount scheme taking into account order frequency and lead time is introduced and incorporated into an integrated inventory planning model for a serial supply chain that minimizes the overall incurred cost including procurement, inventory holding, production, and transportation. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation is presented addressing this multi-period, multi-supplier, and multi-stage problem with predetermined time-varying demand for the case of a single product. Then, the length of the time period is considered as a variable. A new MILP formulation is derived when each period of the model is split into multiple sub-periods, and under certain conditions, it is proved that the optimal solution and objective value of the original model form a feasible solution and an upper bound for the derived model. In a numerical example, three scenarios of the derived model are solved where the number of sub-period is set to 2, 3, and 4. The results further show the decrease of the optimal objective value as the length of the time period is shortened. Sufficient evidence demonstrates that the length of the time period has a significant influence on supplier selection, lot sizing allocation, and inventory planning decisions. This poses the necessity of the selection of appropriate length of a time period, considering the trade-off between model complexity and cost savings.     

Calculation of cladding modes using both two layer and three layer geometry in LPFG

In this paper we have calculated cladding modes of long period fiber grating. We have calculated cladding modes using both two layer (Graphical solution method) geometry and three layer geometry proposed by Erdogan. We have compared both these techniques, discussed the limitations of Graphical solution method and benefits of three layer geometry.     

Theoretical Research on Sensitivity for Resonance Wavelength of Long Period Fiber Grating

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对称面形光栅TE模的衍射特性

本文采用耦合波方法计算了对称面形光栅的衍射效率,分析了光栅截面面形为正弦、三角形、矩形、梯形光栅衍射效率与光栅周期、沟槽深度的关系,计算了光栅的峰值衍射效率。理论计算表明:合理地选择光栅周期、沟槽深度,对称面形光栅都可以达到很高衍射效率,接近100%;光栅的峰值衍射效率基本出现在Bragg衍射且光栅的周期等于衍射波长时。