基于概率语言术语集的服务外包风险评估方法

考虑服务外包风险评估的不确定性,采用概率语言术语集获取FMEA方法所需的专家评价信息,通过给语言集赋予不同的概率以表达偏好的程度。针对传统FMEA方法没有考虑风险间的相互影响关系,风险严重度评估不够准确的问题,采用广义Choquet积分分析风险间的相互影响关系,得到修正后的风险严重度。考虑严重度、发生度和难检度直接相乘准确性低的问题,采用概率语言VIKOR方法对风险的三个因子进行综合评估。最后以公共体育场馆服务外包风险评估为例,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

多层前馈模糊神经网络在儿童综合素质测评中的应用

运用对偶标度统计方法计算儿童发展调查问题中原始数据的变量权和样本得分,从而确定评价因素集.采用多层前馈模糊神经网络——FM LP实现对儿童个体综合素质的定量评价.     

地下水水质评价中相关性分析方法的应用

在对四川省红层丘陵区浅层地下水水质评价的基础上,应用SPSS和Excel以及Surfer 3种方法分析了样品中的元素含量和进行了相关性分析。结果表明,SPSS和Surfer 8.0联用,能较好地阐明污染物的相关性和元素分布的特征,更直观地作出宜宾市屏山县浅层地下水水质现状评价。     

Multiparametric Evaluation of Dysphonic Severity

SUMMARY: In recent years, the multiparametric approach for evaluating perceptual rating of voice quality has been advocated. This study evaluates the accuracy of predicting perceived overall severity of voice quality with a minimal set of aerodynamic, voice range profile (phonetogram), and acoustic perturbation measures. One hundred and twelve dysphonic persons (93 women and 19 men) with laryngeal pathologies and 41 normal controls (35 women and six men) with normal voices participated in this study. Perceptual severity judgement was carried out by four listeners rating the G (overall grade) parameter of the GRBAS scale. The minimal set of instrumental measures was selected based on the ability of the measure to discriminate between dysphonic and normal voices, and to attain at least a moderate correlation with perceived overall severity. Results indicated that perceived overall severity was best described by maximum phonation time of sustained /a/, peak intraoral pressure of the consonant-vowel /pi/ strings production, voice range profile area, and acoustic jitter. Direct-entry discriminant function analysis revealed that these four voice measures in combination correctly predicted 67.3% of perceived overall severity levels.     

响应面方法计算HTR-10余热排出系统物理过程的失效概率

在核电站安全研究中，概率安全评价方法已经得到了广泛的应用.但是对于采用非能动设计的核电站系统，其可靠性分析的研究还处于初级阶段.非能动系统的失效不但要考虑常规可靠性分析中考虑的设备失效，还要考虑物理过程的失效.物理过程失效概率的计算方法和能动系统可靠性分析方法完全不同.本文给出物理过程失效的数学描述，介绍了一次二阶矩法、响应面方法，并且应用响应面方法计算了清华大学核能技术设计研究院10MW高温气冷实验堆(HTR-10)余热排出系统失效概率的近似值. 关键词： 概率安全评价 非能动系统 可靠性 响应面     

Some properties of bivariate Gumbel Type A distributions with proportional hazard rates

We call a set of univariate distributions with the same mathematical form but different parameter values a family $\text{J}$. Consider a bivariate Gumbel Type A survival distribution, S₁₂(x₁, x₂), defined in (2.1), for which both marginal distributions, S₁(x₁), S₂(x₂), belong to the same family, $\text{J}$ of distributions. It is proved in this paper that subject to weak conditions, the crude hazard rates, h₁(t) and h₂(t), are proportional if and only if the marginal hazard rates, λ₁(t) and λ₂(t), are proportional (Theorem 1). It is also shown that the survival functions of W = min(X₁, X₂), and of the identified minimum, W_i = X_i, for X_i < X_j, j ≠ i, belong to the same family $\text{J}$ as do S₁(x₁), S₂(x₂) (Corollary 1). Counter-examples of distributions other than Gumbel Type A, for which these properties do not hold, are given. Some applications to the analysis of competing risks, using a family of Gompertz distributions, are discussed.     

Determination,residue and risk assessment of trifloxystrobin,trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in Chinese rice consumption

A simple and rapid analytical method for the detection of trifloxystrobin, trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in soil, brown rice, paddy plants and rice hulls was established and validated by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Acceptable linearity (R² > 0.99), accuracy (average recoveries of 74.3–108.5%) and precision (intra- and inter-day relative standard deviations of 0.9–8.8%) were obtained using the developed determination approach. In the field trial, the half-lives of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in paddy plants were 5.7–8.3 days in three locations throughout China, and the terminal residue concentrations of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole were <100 and 500 μg/kg (maximum residue limits set by China), respectively, at harvest, which indicated that, based on the recommended application procedure, trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole are safe for use on rice. The risk assessment results demonstrated that, owing to risk quotient values of both fungicides being <100%, the potential risk of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole on rice was acceptable for Chinese consumers. These data could provide supporting information for the proper use and safety evaluation of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in rice.     

Chemists around the World,Take Your Part in the Circular Economy!

Based on recent examples and initiatives reported in the literature, this concept article discusses how chemistry can contribute to the circular economy approach in order to improve our current and future economical, societal, and environmental system. Through five proposed levels of contribution, chemists can take a significant part in this global approach via the consideration of green chemistry principles, the simplification of syntheses, the limitation of complex products preparation, the efficient utilization of resources but also the novel ways of waste valorization. A more systematic and generalized environmental and economic assessment from the lab-scale is also recommended. At last, chemists have to work even more collaboratively and in a multidisciplinary way, within chemistry and beyond.     

Chromatographic determination,decline dynamic and risk assessment of sulfoxaflor in Asian pear and oriental melon

The dissipation pattern of sulfoxaflor in Asian pear cultivated in an open field conditions and in oriental melon grown under plastic house conditions was each studied in two different locations. Residues in field‐treated samples were determined using liquid chromatography coupled with an ultraviolet detector and confirmed by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. A calibration curve for sulfoxaflor was linear over the concentration range 0.1–5.0 mg/L, with a coefficient of determination of 0.9999. The limits of detection and quantification (LOQ) were 0.007 and 0.02 mg/kg, respectively. Recoveries at three fortification levels (LOQ, 10 × LOQ and maximum residue limit) ranged from 70.5 to 86.2%, with a relative standard deviation ≤5.8%. The dissipation half‐lives were 10.8 and 7.9 days in pear and 5.4 and 5.9 days in oriental melon, at sites 1 and 2, respectively. Based on a pre‐harvest residue limit curve, it was predicted that, if the residues at 10 days before harvest in Asian pear are <0.54/0.61 mg/kg and those in oriental melon are <1.43/1.26 mg/kg, then the residue level will be below the maximum residue limit at harvest. Risk assessment at zero days showed a percentage acceptable daily intake of 10.80% in Asian pear and 1.77 and 1.55% in oriental melon, for sites 1 and 2, respectively. These values indicate that the fruits are safe for consumption.