利用水下爆炸法评价火炸药爆炸危险性的研究

本文提供了一种测定火炸药冲击感度,并根据测定值判定其冲击爆炸危险性的新方法测定水下爆炸气泡能法。通过对30几种炸药的试用,判定的结果与文献报道的用其他方法判定的结果相当好的一致。而且本法的优点还在于同时可得到试样的动、静态威力,操作简便、安全、噪音小。此外,利用本试验法还探讨了炸药形态、惰性介质(水)对冲击感度的影响。这些对于处理炸药时应如何采取安全对策具有指导意义。     

地震CT勘探原理及其在公路隧道病害诊断中的应用

地震CT勘探是一种新的地球物理方法。具有分辨率高、可靠性强、信息量大、图象直观的特点。可以广泛地用于线路、场地、隧道、边坡等项目的工程地质勘查和病害诊断。在元磨高速公路芭蕉箐隧道的地质病害诊断中应用地震CT进行勘探,取得了良好的效果。     

地形三维可视化在川藏公路典型路段中的应用

利用地形平面图的数据和有关区域地质资料的数字化方法实现川藏公路典型路段三维地形的显示和实时浏览,为进一步利用地理信息系统进行研究区地层岩性、地质构造和地质灾害分布的叠加分析进行地质灾害研究提供了矢量化的地形底图。川藏公路典型路段的三维地形可视化工作对于川藏铁路的选线、绕避不良地质灾害的发生和开凿铁路隧道的位置选择等将会有一定的参考价值。     

论地质灾害防治工程的地质观与工程观

概括前人的经验, 结合作者个人的实践, 本文较详细地讨论了地质灾害防治工程的地质观念与工程观念。提出地质观的核心问题是地质灾害体的变形破坏力学机理分析, 工程观观与工程观运用的最佳耦合。文中还讨论了超前预测的作用, 监测反馈与工程效果检验的关系, 以及地质工程师与设计工程师的关系等, 最后以链子崖危岩体防治工程为例进行了说明。     

Optimal reinsurance under risk and uncertainty

This paper deals with the optimal reinsurance problem if both insurer and reinsurer are facing risk and uncertainty, though the classical uncertainty free case is also included. The insurer and reinsurer degrees of uncertainty do not have to be identical. The decision variable is not the retained (or ceded) risk, but its sensitivity with respect to the total claims. Thus, if one imposes strictly positive lower bounds for this variable, the reinsurer moral hazard is totally eliminated.Three main contributions seem to be reached. Firstly, necessary and sufficient optimality conditions are given in a very general setting. Secondly, the optimal contract is often a bang–bang solution, i.e., the sensitivity between the retained risk and the total claims saturates the imposed constraints. Thirdly, the optimal reinsurance problem is equivalent to other linear programming problem, despite the fact that risk, uncertainty, and many premium principles are not linear. This may be important because linear problems may be easily solved in practice, since there are very efficient algorithms.     

Stochastic comparison of aggregate claim amounts between two heterogeneous portfolios and its applications

The aggregate claim amount in a particular time period is a quantity of fundamental importance for proper management of an insurance company and also for pricing of insurance coverages. In this paper, we show that the proportional hazard rates (PHR) model, which includes some well-known distributions such as exponential, Weibull and Pareto distributions, can be used as the aggregate claim amount distribution. We also present some conditions for the use of exponentiated Weibull distribution as the claim amount distribution. The results established here complete and extend the well-known result of Khaledi and Ahmadi (2008).     

Budget-constrained optimal insurance with belief heterogeneity

We re-examine the problem of budget-constrained demand for insurance indemnification when the insured and the insurer disagree about the likelihoods associated with the realizations of the insurable loss. For ease of comparison with the classical literature, we adopt the original setting of Arrow (1971), but allow for divergence in beliefs between the insurer and the insured; and in particular for singularity between these beliefs, that is, disagreement about zero-probability events. We do not impose the no sabotage condition on admissible indemnities. Instead, we impose a state-verification cost that the insurer can incur in order to verify the loss severity, which rules out ex post moral hazard issues that could otherwise arise from possible misreporting of the loss by the insured. Under a mild consistency requirement between these beliefs that is weaker than the Monotone Likelihood Ratio (MLR) condition, we characterize the optimal indemnity and show that it has a simple two-part structure: full insurance on an event to which the insurer assigns zero probability, and a variable deductible on the complement of this event, which depends on the state of the world through a likelihood ratio. The latter is obtained from a Lebesgue decomposition of the insured’s belief with respect to the insurer’s belief.     

How Does Diet Influence Our Lives? Evaluating the Relationship between Isotopic Signatures and Mortality Patterns in Italian Roman Imperial and Medieval Periods

The present research investigates the relationship between dietary habits and mortality patterns in the Roman Imperial and Medieval periods. The reconstructions of population dynamics and subsistence strategies provide a fascinating source of information for understanding our history. This is particularly true given that the changes in social, economic, political, and religious aspects related to the transition from the Roman period to the Middle Ages have been widely discussed. We analyzed the isotopic and mortality patterns of 616 individuals from 18 archeological sites (the Medieval Latium sites of Colonna, Santa Severa, Allumiere, Cencelle, and 14 Medieval and Imperial funerary contexts from Rome) to compile a survivorship analysis. A semi-parametric approach was applied, suggesting variations in mortality patterns between sexes in the Roman period. Nitrogen isotopic signatures influenced mortality in both periods, showing a quadratic and a linear effect for Roman Imperial and Medieval populations, respectively. No influence of carbon isotopic signatures has been detected for Roman Imperial populations. Conversely, increased mortality risk for rising carbon isotopic values was observed in Medieval samples.     

防范道德风险的博弈分析和契约设计

运用不完全信息动态博弈的理论，建立了一个防范道德风险的博弈模型．给出了该博弈的精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡．在此基础上给出了基于最优博弈策略的契约的具体形式。而这种基于博弈论的契约可以克服有成本的状态验证模型(CSV)及经典激励理论中承诺的可信性问题。