Relating geologic units and mobility system kinematics contributing to Curiosity wheel damage at Gale Crater,Mars

Curiosity landed on plains to the north of Mount Sharp in August 2012. By June 2016 the rover had traversed 12.9 km to the southwest, encountering extensive strata that were deposited in a fluvial-deltaic-lacustrine system. Initial drives across sharp sandstone outcrops initiated an unacceptably high rate of punctures and cracks in the thin aluminum wheel skin structures. Initial damage was found to be related to the drive control mode of the six wheel drive actuators and the kinematics of the rocker-bogie suspension. Wheels leading a suspension pivot were forced onto sharp, immobile surfaces by the other wheels as they maintained their commanded angular velocities. Wheel damage mechanisms such as geometry-induced stress concentration cracking and low-cycle fatigue were then exacerbated. A geomorphic map was generated to assist in planning traverses that would minimize further wheel damage. A steady increase in punctures and cracks between landing and June 2016 was due in part because of drives across the sharp sandstone outcrops that could not be avoided. Wheel lifetime estimates show that with careful path planning the wheels will be operational for an additional ten kilometers or more, allowing the rover to reach key strata exposed on the slopes of Mount Sharp.     

Approximation of the Posterior Distribution in a Change-Point Problem

We consider a family of models that arise in connection with sharp change in hazard rate corresponding to high initial hazard rate dropping to a more stable or slowly changing rate at an unknown change-point . Although the Bayes estimates are well behaved and are asymptotically efficient, it is difficult to compute them as the posterior distributions are generally very complicated. We obtain a simple first order asymptotic approximation to the posterior distribution of . The accuracy of the approximation is judged through simulation. The approximation performs quite well. Our method is also applied to analyze a real data set.     

Modelling lifetime data: a graphical approach

In this paper we point out the differences between the most common hazard-based models, such as the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models. We focus on the heteroscestaticity-across-individuals problem that cannot be accommodated by them, and give motivation and general ideas about more flexible formulations. We describe hybrid and extended models, which have the former models as particular cases, but keep enough flexibility to fit data with heteroscedasticity. We show that by considering simple graphical procedures it is easy to verify whether there is heteroscedasticity in the data, whether it is possible to describe it through a simple function of the covariates, and whether it is important to take it in account for the final fit. Real datasets are considered. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

具有私人信息的道德风险的委托—代理人模型的合约分析

本文对存在的不对称信息的环境下的具有私人信息道德风险的委托—代理人模型的合约问题进行了详细的讨论,并得出一些有新意的结论.此讨论问题的方法很值得推荐和推广,特别是在最优激励合同中,比如投资激励,管理机制中的激励,销售激励,保险激励等合同的设计,都可以借鉴此方法来研究和分析.     

嵌套病例对照研究中的两步估计方法（英）

本文讨论嵌套病例对照研究中相对危险率的估计问题，引入了相对危险率的两步估计，并在一般嵌套病例对照抽样的假设下讨论了相对危险率的两步估计的相合性问题，最后给出了几个例子。     

团队生产中的博弈模型与道德风险研究

首先根据团队生产在产出函数的特点,建立了由二人组成的团队生产模型;接着,在分析了团队生产的博弈过程后,求得团队成员努力投入的N ash均衡;最后,着重研究了两种证实团队生产中存在道德风险的方法.     

Gaining efficiency via weighted estimators for multivariate failure time data

Multivariate failure time data arise frequently in survival analysis. A commonly used technique is the working independence estimator for marginal hazard models. Two natural questions are how to improve the efficiency of the working independence estimator and how to identify the situations under which such an estimator has high statistical efficiency. In this paper, three weighted estimators are proposed based on three different optimal criteria in terms of the asymptotic covariance of weighted estimators. Simplified close-form solutions are found, which always outperform the working independence estimator. We also prove that the working independence estimator has high statistical efficiency, when asymptotic covariance of derivatives of partial log-likelihood functions is nearly exchangeable or diagonal. Simulations are conducted to compare the performance of the weighted estimator and working independence estimator. A data set from Busselton population health surveys is analyzed using the proposed estimators. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10628104), Fan was also supported by National Institutes of Health (Grant No. R01-GM072611) and Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. DMS-0714554), Zhou was supported by National Natural Science Funds for Distinguisheel Young Scholar (Grant No. 70825004), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10731010, 10628104), the National Basic Research Program (Grant No. 2007CB814902), Creative Research Groups of China (Grant No. 10721101) and Leading Academic Disipline Program, the 10 ^th five year plan of 211 Project for Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (the 3 ^rd phase), Cai was supported by National Institutes of Health (Grant No. R01-HL57444)     

一种基于Rough集理论的最小风险决策规则提取方法

波兰科学家Zdzisilaw Pawlak将概率统计中的Bayesian公式与Rough集模型相结合建立基于决策理论的概率模型，给出了一系列的决策规则及相关讨论。在此基础上结合在银行信贷分析的实际例子描述了基于Rough集理论的最小风险决策规则提取方法及它的实际应用，可以看出这为非结构化风险决策问题提供了一条很好的辅助决策的途径。     

风险企业的委托-代理模型

传统的委托—代理理论在解释风险企业家的行为时遇到了困难。通过对传统的委托—代理理论进行重新构造和拓展，本提出逆反努力法则，验证了隐藏行动的道德风险的存在，并通过Newton迭代法和图形学方法对风险企业家的长期努力水平进行计算，发现努力水平对努力效应指数n表现出协同效应。     

On a class of Bayesian nonparametric estimates: II. Hazard rate estimates

The Bayes estimation of hazard rates for a family of multiplicative point processes is considered. We study the model for which a hazard rate can be linearly parametrized by a freely varied measure. The weighted gamma process is assumed to be the prior distribution of this measure; the posterior distributions and the posterior means are given in explicit forms. Examples of the evaluation of posterior means are given.The research of this author is supported in part by NSF Grant MCS 81-02523-01.