Some recent and new results on the maximum entropy distribution

This letter concerns the maximum entropy (ME) distribution proposed by Theil and Laitinen (1980); it summarizes some of the results obtained with this distribution and its explores the conditioning of the ME covariance matrix as the number of variables increases.     

频率选择性衰落信道中的频偏盲估计

根据频率选择性衰落信道的抽头延迟线模型,将针对平坦衰落信道的CS(周期平稳过程理论)频偏盲估计算法扩展到了频率选择性衰落信道,并通过仿真证明这种扩展是可行的.仿真结果还表明CS算法不仅有好的抗平坦衰落能力,而且有很好的抗频率选择性衰落性能.     

非参数可修系统可用度的评定

考虑可修的串联系统,其单元产品在出现故障时,由于种种原因,故障不能得到及时维修,形成了一段保障延误时间.于是这一更新过程为:正常工作(直到出现故障)-保障延误-故障维修-正常工作…….假设每一时段的分布未知,且相互独立,给出了可用度的点估计和置信下限.     

Bammann-Chiesa-Johnson粘塑性本构模型材料参数的一种识别方法

粘塑性本构模型能否成功模拟金属高应变率大应变变形过程依赖于材料参数识别结果的好坏。由于BCJ模型考虑了应变率、温度与材料硬化之间的耦合效应以及应变率、温度历史效应,同时模型中包含了多个材料参数,因此很难通过试验直接识别模型的材料参数。本文针对BCJ模型中的耦合效应和历史效应,基于对模型中材料参数物理涵义的界定,给出了一种对材料参数解耦、分离并进行估计的方法,获得了模型材料参数估计公式,估计了材料参数的取值范围。在此基础上,编制了BCJ模型应力积分径向返回算法和粒子群优化算法的计算程序,应用重新设计了BCJ模型耦合效应和历史效应的反分析方法,在参数取值范围内对材料参数进行了优化识别。以OFHC Cu为例,应用提出的识别方法对BCJ模型的材料参数进行了识别,计算结果和试验结果符合较好。     

Limit theorems for the median deviation

Summary In this paper, we obtain a strong law and central limit theorem for the median deviation under only very mild smoothness conditions on the underlying distribution. Under an additional condition implied by symmetry, we derive a weak Bahadur representation for the median deviation and establish the asymptotic equivalence of the median deviation and the semi-interquartile range.     

车险费率厘定精算技术的研究与应用评述

精算技术为中国车险市场费率改革提供必要支持,可以确保费率厘定的科学性与合理性。首先,本文系统梳理了车险分类风险费率厘定精算统计模型的发展历程,并回顾参数估计方法。其次,论述了车险个体风险费率厘定的精算模型与方法,并重点评述了信度理论与奖惩系统的研究。进而,归纳出车险费率厘定精算统计模型的研究热点与发展方向。最后,指明现有研究对中国车险费率厘定精算方法的启示,并提出相关建议。     

基于Hilbert变换的LFM检测与估计

LFM(线性调频)信号是一类重要的非平稳信号,其完全被初始频率和调频斜率两个参量表征,而LFM信号的检测与估计问题是信号处理中最为重要的研究热点之一.由于调频信号在时频平面内有较好的聚集性,通常使用时频分析的方法对其进行检测和估计.线性正则变换是经典时频分布的广义形式,对LFM信号具有很好的能量聚集特性,在现有的线性正则域Hilbert变换的基础上,提出了一种不需要谱峰搜索而快速检测LFM信号和估计其参数的方法,并且通过仿真实例验证了所提出方法的优越性.     

Regularized Principal Component Analysis for Spatial Data

In many atmospheric and earth sciences, it is of interest to identify dominant spatial patterns of variation based on data observed at p locations and n time points with the possibility that p > n. While principal component analysis (PCA) is commonly applied to find the dominant patterns, the eigenimages produced from PCA may exhibit patterns that are too noisy to be physically meaningful when p is large relative to n. To obtain more precise estimates of eigenimages, we propose a regularization approach incorporating smoothness and sparseness of eigenimages, while accounting for their orthogonality. Our method allows data taken at irregularly spaced or sparse locations. In addition, the resulting optimization problem can be solved using the alternating direction method of multipliers, which is easy to implement, and applicable to a large spatial dataset. Furthermore, the estimated eigenfunctions provide a natural basis for representing the underlying spatial process in a spatial random-effects model, from which spatial covariance function estimation and spatial prediction can be efficiently performed using a regularized fixed-rank kriging method. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by several numerical examples.     

A Cross-Entropy Approach to the Estimation of Generalized Linear Multilevel Models

In this article, we use the cross-entropy method for noisy optimization for fitting generalized linear multilevel models through maximum likelihood. We propose specifications of the instrumental distributions for positive and bounded parameters that improve the computational performance. We also introduce a new stopping criterion, which has the advantage of being problem-independent. In a second step we find, by means of extensive Monte Carlo experiments, the most suitable values of the input parameters of the algorithm. Finally, we compare the method to the benchmark estimation technique based on numerical integration. The cross-entropy approach turns out to be preferable from both the statistical and the computational point of view. In the last part of the article, the method is used to model the probability of firm exits in the healthcare industry in Italy. Supplemental materials are available online.     

Estimating the efficient price from the order flow: A Brownian Cox process approach

At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price, etc.). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem of choosing a price when implementing their strategies. In this work, we propose a notion of efficient price which seems relevant in practice. Furthermore, we provide a statistical methodology enabling to estimate this price from the order flow.