核实数据下响应变量缺失的线性EV模型经验似然推断

考虑响应变量随机缺失而协变量带有误差的线性模型,借助于核实数据和借补方法,构造了回归系数的两种经验似然比,证明了所提出的估计的经验对数似然比渐近于一个自由度为1的独立χ2变量的加权和;而经调整后所得的调整经验对数似然比渐近于自由度为p的χ2分布,该结果可以用来构造未知参数的置信域.此外,我们也构造了响应均值的调整经验对数似然比统计量,并证明了所提出的统计量渐近于x2分布,可用此结果构造响应均值的置信域.通过模拟研究比较了置信域的精度及其平均区间长度.     

Multiple comparisons with a control in direction-mixed families of hypothesis under heteroscedasticity

For general inferential families with a mixture of one- and two-sided inferences two procedures are proposed to compare several treatments with a control under heteroscedasticity. Critical constants required for the proposed procedures are tabulated, and a numerical example is given.     

Empirical likelihood for AR-ARCH models based on LAD estimation

By employing the empirical likelihood method,confidence regions for the stationary AR(p)-ARCH(q) models are constructed.A self-weighted LAD estimator is proposed under weak moment conditions.An empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic is derived and its asymptotic distribution is obtained.Simulation studies show that the performance of empirical likelihood method is better than that of normal approximation of the LAD estimator in terms of the coverage accuracy,especially for relative small size of observation.     

基于属性识别准则大学生思想品德量化的数学模型

依据一定的社会评价标准,建立大学生思想品德评价的指标体系,利用现代数学方法——属性识别理论和层次分析方法,建立定量研究模型.     

农残水平测试中数据多态性分析及指定值估计研究

对全国农残水平测试中毒死蜱、氯氰菊酯数据进行统计分析,在数据统计分布特征研究基础上,使用内核密度估计进行数据多态性分析,使用bootstrap模拟取样法对数据样本值重复取样,以获得稳健的水平测试样品待测物含量代表值估计、标准误差及置信区间描述,证明以bootstrap模拟取样法获取的均值与标准偏差作为有限单次样本代表值是合理、有效的,解决了四分位稳健统计方法对非正态多态分布代表值估计不稳定问题及取样理论中取样样本数限制的瓶颈,为能力验证计划指定值的获取提供了一种新方法。     

On the Relation between Prediction and Imputation Accuracy under Missing Covariates

Missing covariates in regression or classification problems can prohibit the direct use of advanced tools for further analysis. Recent research has realized an increasing trend towards the use of modern Machine-Learning algorithms for imputation. This originates from their capability of showing favorable prediction accuracy in different learning problems. In this work, we analyze through simulation the interaction between imputation accuracy and prediction accuracy in regression learning problems with missing covariates when Machine-Learning-based methods for both imputation and prediction are used. We see that even a slight decrease in imputation accuracy can seriously affect the prediction accuracy. In addition, we explore imputation performance when using statistical inference procedures in prediction settings, such as the coverage rates of (valid) prediction intervals. Our analysis is based on empirical datasets provided by the UCI Machine Learning repository and an extensive simulation study.     

Large sample prediction intervals for future geometric mean a comparative study

This paper provides simulation comparisons among the performance of 11 possible prediction intervals for the geometric.mean of a Pareto distribution with parameters (αB, ). Six different procedures were used to obtain these intervals , namely; true inter -val , pivotal interval , maximum likelihood estimation interval, centrallimit teorem interval, variance stabilizing interval and a mixture of the above intervals . Some of these intervals are valid if the observed sample size m,are large , others are valid if both, n and the future sample size m, are large. Some of these intervals require a knowledge of α or B, while others do not. The simulation validation and efficiency study shows that intervals depending on the MLE's are the best. The second best intervalsare those obtained through pivotal methods or variance stabilization transformation. The third group of intervals is that which depends on the central limit theorem when λ is known. There are two intervals which proved to be unacceptable under any criterion.     

A Large Sample Approximation to the Profile Plug-in Upper Confidence Limit

We consider the problem of constructing a 1– upper confidence limit for the scalar parameter ₀ in the presence of the nuisance parameter vector ₀, when the data are discrete. The 'profile plug-in' upper confidence limit is introduced by Kabaila and Lloyd. This confidence limit is based on computing a P-value from an estimator of ₀, replacing the nuisance parameter by the profile maximum likelihood estimate for known, and equating to . Theoretical and numerical evidence for the good coverage properties of this confidence limit is presented by Kabaila and Lloyd. An upper confidence limit should be assessed not only by its coverage properties but also by how large this confidence limit is. We measure how large the profile plug-in upper limit is by using a large sample approximation to it. This large sample approximation is used to delineate further the good properties of this confidence limit.     

Differences of Convex Compact Sets in the Space of Directed Sets. Part I: The Space of Directed Sets

A normed and partially ordered vector space of so-called directed sets is constructed, in which the convex cone of all nonempty convex compact sets in R ⁿ is embedded by a positively linear, order preserving and isometric embedding (with respect to a new metric stronger than the Hausdorff metric and equivalent to the Demyanov one). This space is a Banach and a Riesz space for all dimensions and a Banach lattice for n=1. The directed sets in R ⁿ are parametrized by normal directions and defined recursively with respect to the dimension n by the help of a support function and directed supporting faces of lower dimension prescribing the boundary. The operations (addition, subtraction, scalar multiplication) are defined by acting separately on the support function and recursively on the directed supporting faces. Generalized intervals introduced by Kaucher form the basis of this recursive approach. Visualizations of directed sets will be presented in the second part of the paper.     

非线性时间序列互信息与Lempel-Ziv复杂度的相关性研究

为探究非线性动力学系统的互信息和复杂度的相关性，用Logistic映射、Lorenz模型和心电RR间期的非线性时间序列作为实验数据，计算多分段延时互信息和多分段Lempel-Ziv复杂度以及它们之间的相关系数.结果表明这些序列的互信息和复杂度呈强负相关，对Logistic方程生成的201个序列的不同段互信息和不同段复杂度之间的相关系数绝对值都大于0.9162，最大达0.9923；对94个心电RR间期序列都大于0.8555，最大达0.9860.研究还发现互信息比复杂度能更敏感地表现出非线性动力系统的特征. 关键词： 相关系数 互信息 Lempel-Ziv 复杂度 心电RR间期