All Admissible Linear Estimators under Quadratic Loss in Multivariate Model

§ 1.Introduction and Notations　In this paper,for any given matrices A and B,A B denotes the Kronecker productof A and B,A is a vector formed by stacking the columns of A under each other,μ(A)is a space generated by the columns of A,and PA=A(A′A) - A′. Fourthmore,if A andB are square matrices,then A>B and A≥ B mean that A-B is a symmetrical positiveand nonnegative matrix,respectively,andλi(A) is the i-th largest eigenvalue of A.　Consider general multivariate linear modelY …     

平衡指数损失函数下的信度保费

在经典的信度保费模型中,得到的信度保费估计均是考虑的是纯保费,然而在保险实务中,保险公司收取的保费不可能是纯保费,必须具有正的安全负荷.在平衡指数损失函数下,研究了多合同的信度保费模型.利用正交投影方法,得到了未来保费的信度估计.最后对估计进行了数值模拟.     

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators in generalized linear models with autoregressive processes

The paper studies a generalized linear model(GLM)y_t = h(x_t~T β) + ε_t,t = l,2,...,n,where ε_1 = η_1,ε_1 =ρε_t +η_t,t = 2,3,...;n,h is a continuous differentiable function,η_t's are independent and identically distributed random errors with zero mean and finite variance σ~2.Firstly,the quasi-maximum likelihood(QML) estimators of β,p and σ~2 are given.Secondly,under mild conditions,the asymptotic properties(including the existence,weak consistency and asymptotic distribution) of the QML estimators are investigated.Lastly,the validity of method is illuminated by a simulation example.     

Asymptotically optimal empirical bayes procedures for selecting good

Let ∏₁,…,∏_k denote k independent populations, where a random observation from population ∏ _i has a uniform distribution over the interval (0,θ _i ) and θ _i is a realization of a random variable having an unknown prior distribution G _i . Population ∏ _i is said to be a good population if θ _i ≥θ₀, where θ₀ is a given, positive number. This paper provides a sequence of empirical Bayes procedures for selecting the good populationsamong ∏₁,…,∏ _k . It is shown that these procedures are asymptotically optimal and that the order of associated convergence rates is O(n^-r/4) for some r, 0<r<2, where n is the number of accumulated past observations

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Lower Rank Approximation of Matrices Based on Fast and Robust Alternating Regression

We introduce fast and robust algorithms for lower rank approximation to given matrices based on robust alternating regression. The alternating least squares regression, also called criss-cross regression, was used for lower rank approximation of matrices, but it lacks robustness against outliers in these matrices. We use robust regression estimators and address some of the complications arising from this approach. We find it helpful to use high breakdown estimators in the initial iterations, followed by M estimators with monotone score functions in later iterations towards convergence. In addition to robustness, the computational speed is another important consideration in the development of our proposed algorithm, because alternating robust regression can be computationally intensive for large matrices. Based on a mix of the least trimmed squares (LTS) and Huber's M estimators, we demonstrate that fast and robust lower rank approximations are possible for modestly large matrices.     

A Hessian Regularized Nonlinear Time Series Model

We introduce a nonparametric nonlinear time series model. The novel idea is to fit a model via penalization, where the penalty term is an unbiased estimator of the integrated Hessian of the underlying function. The underlying model assumption is very general: it has Hessian almost everywhere in its domain. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our model has better predictive power: if the underlying model complies with an existing parametric/semiparametric form (e.g., a threshold autoregressive model (TAR), an additive autoregressive model (AAR), or a functional coefficient autoregressive model (FAR)), our model performs comparably; if the underlying model does not comply with any preexisting form, our model outperforms in nearly all simulations. We name our model a Hessian regularized nonlinear model for time series (HRM). We conjecture on theoretical properties and use simulations to verify. Our method can be viewed as a way to generalize splines to high dimensions (when the number of variates is more than three), under which an analogous analytical derivation cannot work due to the curse of dimensionality. Supplemental materials are provided, and will help readers reproduce all results in the article.     

广义偏最小二乘(PLS)估计类

本文研究了一类含有偏最小二乘（partialleastsquaresPLS）估计的估计类．给出了PLS估计的一般代数形式；讨论了含有PLS估计的广义PPLS估计类的统计性质；给出了该估计类优于最小二乘估计的条件．     

相依回归系统一种协方差改进估计之协方差阵的无偏估计

考虑相依回归方程系统ｙｉ＝Ｘｉβｉ＋εｉ（ｉ＝１，２），Ｅ（εｉ）＝０，Ｃｏｖ（εｉ，εｊ）＝σｉｊＩｎ。记βｉ为βｉ的协方差改进估计＾［１］。σｉｊ未知时，记βｉ为用非限定估计σｉｊ代替βｉ中的σｉｊ得到的两步估计，并记βｉ为用限定估计σｉｊ代替βｉ中的σｉｊ得到的两步估计，这两种两步估计的协方差中含有未知参数σｉｊ代替βｉ中的σｉｊ得到的两步估计，这两种两步估计的协方差中含有未知参数σｉｊ。本     

方差分析模型中参数的经验Bayes估计及其优良性问题

本文考虑单向分类的方差分析模型，构造了Ｐ′α的线性Ｂａｙｅｓ估计和经验Ｂａｙｅｓ（ＥＢ）估计，此处αａ×１是效应参数向量，Ｐａ×ｋ是常数矩阵．在较一般的条件下，基于均方误差矩阵准则和ＰｉｔｍａｎＣｌｏｓｅｎｅｓｓ准则，我们分别证明了ＥＢ估计优于最小二乘估计     

指数分布场合下步进应力加速寿命试验的Bayes分析

当寿命分布为指数分布时，本文给出了步进应力加速寿命试验的一种新的Ｂａｙｅｓ估计，为计算上的方便，本文还给出一种近似方法，数值例子表明，此方法简便可行。