Students’ Reasoning About One-Object Stochastic Phenomena in an ICT-Environment

This paper focuses on the different ways in which students in lower secondary school (14–16 year olds) experience compound random events, presented to them in the form of combined junctions. A carefully designed ICT environment was developed enabling the students to interact with different representations of such structures. Data for the analysis was gathered from two interview sessions. The analysis of the interaction is based on constructivist principles on learning; i.e. we adopted a student-oriented perspective, taking into consideration the different ways students try to make sense of chance encounters. Our results show how some students give priority to geometrical and physical concerns, and we discuss how seeking causal explanations of random phenomena may have encouraged this. With respect to numerically oriented models a division strategy appears to stand out as the preferred one.     

ADSORPTION OF 2,4-D ON MODIFIED HYPERCROSSLINKED POLYSTYRENE （NDA-99） AND XAD-4 RESIN

The adsorption behavior of pesticide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) in aqueous solution has been investigated using a hypercrosslinked polystyrene adsorbent (NDA-99) modified by dimethylamine group as well as a nonionic macroporous adsorbent (XAD-4). The Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models were employed to fit the experimental data to describe adsorption mechanism. It shows that NDA-99 resin exhibits an adsorption affinity for 2,4-D higher than XAD-4 resin owing to its exceptional micropore structure and the amine group of the hypercrosslinked matrix.Further studies indicate that the hydrogen bonding interaction and the stronger π-π conjugation play a significant role in the course of the adsorption of 2,4-D on NDA-99 resin, which is in agreement with the IR spectroscopic results and the △E values of HOMO (the highest occupied molecular orbit) of adsorbent and LUMO (the lowest unoccupied molecular orbit) of adsorbate calculated from the MINDO/3 model.     

Extreme fluxes in solar energetic particle events: Methodological and physical limitations

In this study, all available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the period from 1561 up to now are analyzed. Under consideration are the observational, methodological and physical problems of energy-spectrum presentation for SEP fluxes (fluences) near the Earth's orbit. Special attention is paid to the study of the distribution function for extreme fluences of SEPs by their sizes. The authors present advances in at least three aspects: 1) a form of the distribution function that was previously obtained from the data for three cycles of solar activity has been completely confirmed by the data for 41 solar cycles; 2) early estimates of extremely large fluences in the past have been critically revised, and their values were found to be overestimated; and 3) extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution, so the concept of an “upper limit flux” does not carry any strict physical sense although it serves as an important empirical restriction. SEP fluxes may only be characterized by the relative probabilities of their appearance, and there is a sharp break in the spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities). It is emphasized that modern observational data and methods of investigation do not allow, for the present, the precise resolution of the problem of the spectrum break or the estimation of the maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s). This limitation considerably restricts the extrapolation of the obtained results to the past and future for application to the epochs with different levels of solar activity.     

Contamination of therapeutic human immunoglobulin preparations with apolipoprotein H (β2‐glycoprotein I)

Polyclonal immunoglobulin (Ig) concentrates are important biological medicinal products and the assurance of their quality and safety is crucial. In our present approach we used proteomic methods to check the purity of commercial Ig products of different origin. The experimental setup included nonreducing 2DE or DIGE combined with MALDI‐TOF and the thrombin generation assay, a routine safety test for pharmaceutical Ig preparations, and was complemented by a specific immunoassay. 2DE patterns displayed contaminations with trace amounts of human apolipoprotein H (Apo‐H), transferrin, albumin, and its fragments. In contrast to the latter, Apo‐H is a protein that is active in the coagulation cascade, and thus a potential involvement in thromboembolic events in vivo cannot be excluded. It was found by 2DE and MALDI‐TOF to be a contaminant of several Ig preparations. Spiking experiments of Ig preparations with pure Apo‐H demonstrated an Apo‐H concentration dependent increase in thrombin generation assay values. Traces of Apo‐H are possibly also contributing to unwanted side effects, as already known for factor XIa. The significance of Apo‐H contaminations for these side effects might be verified by detailed analyses of pharmacovigilance data.     

基于CEEMD的重大事件对香港住宅价格影响的实证分析

应用互补集成经验模态分解（CEEMD）方法对香港1997―2018年的住宅价格月度数据进行了分解,将经过重构后的数据分成高频序列、低频序列与残差项。将BP多断点检测应用于低频序列,并结合样本时段内的重大事件进行实证分析。结果表明：1997年亚洲金融风暴对房价的影响大于2008年金融危机;外部经济体的救市政策间接地影响香港房价;在经济不景气的大环境下“孙九招”政策没有立即见效;资本投资者入境计划、住房供给调整与按揭贷款调整对房价的影响较为显著;税收调整对房价影响不显著、对交易量影响显著;SARS爆发使住宅价格下降约1%。     

A Continuous-Time Random Walk Extension of the Gillis Model

We consider a continuous-time random walk which is the generalization, by means of the introduction of waiting periods on sites, of the one-dimensional non-homogeneous random walk with a position-dependent drift known in the mathematical literature as Gillis random walk. This modified stochastic process allows to significantly change local, non-local and transport properties in the presence of heavy-tailed waiting-time distributions lacking the first moment: we provide here exact results concerning hitting times, first-time events, survival probabilities, occupation times, the moments spectrum and the statistics of records. Specifically, normal diffusion gives way to subdiffusion and we are witnessing the breaking of ergodicity. Furthermore we also test our theoretical predictions with numerical simulations.     

突发事件下应急物资多目标优化调度模型与算法研究：以新冠肺炎疫情为例

突发事件下应急物资调度具有高度不确定性与动态性,应急物资跨区域调度计划能否科学合理制定对应急救援的有效开展具有重要影响。以武汉市新冠肺炎疫情为例,考虑应急物资跨区域调配的时效差异、地域分散以及资金消耗等要素,建立多周期下包含软硬需求时间窗约束的多物资品种、运输方式的跨区域三级动态物资调度网络模型,并设计一种带变异操作的动态变惯性权重自适应粒子群算法(VDCWPSO),利用疫情算例验证该算法的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明,在保障应急物资供应时效性、公平性、经济性原则下,物资跨区域调度可以缓解资源严重短缺状况、提高医用物资利用率,研究可为突发事件下应急物资调度计划的制定与动态调整提供决策支持。     

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.     

Identify real gravitational wave events in the LIGO-Virgo catalog GWTC-1 and GWTC-2 with convolutional neural network

In recent years, machine learning models have been introduced into the field of gravitational wave (GW) data processing. In this paper, we apply the convolutional neural network (CNN) to LIGO O1, O2, O3a data analysis to search the released 41 GW events which are emitted from binary black hole (BBH) mergers (here we exclude the events from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, and the events that are not detected simultaneously by Hanford (H) and Livingston (L) detectors), and use time sliding method to reduce the false alarm rate (FAR). According to the results, the 41 confirmed GW events of BBH mergers can be classified successfully by our CNN model. Furthermore, through restricting the number of consecutive prewarning from sequential samples intercepted continuously in LIGO O2 real time-series and vetoing the coincidences of noise from H and L, the FAR is limited to be less than once in 2 months. It is helpful to promote LIGO real time data processing.     

Seasonal variability of cloud optical depth over northwestern China derived from CERES/MODIS satellite measurements

The seasonal variability of cloud optical depth over northwestern China derived from Clouds and the Earth＇s Radiant Energy System （CERES） Single Scanner Footprint （SSF） Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） Edition IB data from July 2002 to June 2004 is presented. The regions of interest are those with Asia monsoon influence, the Tianshan and Qilian Mountains, and the Taklimakan Desert. The results show that the instantaneous measurements presented here are much higher than the previous results derived from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP） D2 monthly mean data. Generally the measurements of cloud optical depth are the highest in summer and the lowest in winter, however, Taklimakan Desert has the lowest measurements in autumn. The regional variation is quite significant over northwestern China.