Calibrating software reliability models when the test environment does not match the user environment

Software failures have become the major factor that brings the system down or causes a degradation in the quality of service. For many applications, estimating the software failure rate from a user's perspective helps the development team evaluate the reliability of the software and determine the release time properly. Traditionally, software reliability growth models are applied to system test data with the hope of estimating the software failure rate in the field. Given the aggressive nature by which the software is exercised during system test, as well as unavoidable differences between the test environment and the field environment, the resulting estimate of the failure rate will not typically reflect the user‐perceived failure rate in the field. The goal of this work is to quantify the mismatch between the system test environment and the field environment. A calibration factor is proposed to map the failure rate estimated from the system test data to the failure rate that will be observed in the field. Non‐homogeneous Poisson process models are utilized to estimate the software failure rate in both the system test phase and the field. For projects that have only system test data, use of the calibration factor provides an estimate of the field failure rate that would otherwise be unavailable. For projects that have both system test data and previous field data, the calibration factor can be explicitly evaluated and used to estimate the field failure rate of future releases as their system test data becomes available. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of two models for managing reliability growth during product design

Relying on reliability growth testing to improve system designis neither usually effective nor efficient. Instead it is importantto design in reliability. This requires models to estimate reliabilitygrowth in the design that can be used to assess whether goalreliability will be achieved within the target timescale forthe design process. Many models have been developed for analysisof reliability growth on test, but there has been much lessattention given to reliability growth in design. This paperdescribes and compares two models: one motivated by the practicalengineering process; the other by extending the reasoning ofstatistical reliability growth modelling. Both models are referencedin the recently revised edition of international standard IEC61164. However, there has been no reported evaluation of theirproperties. Therefore, this paper explores the commonalitiesand differences between these models through an assessment oftheir logic and their application to an industrial example.Recommendations are given for the use of reliability growthmodels to aid management of the design process and to informproduct development.     

一种基于图论与熵的专家判断客观可信度的确定方法

本文给出一种群决策中确定专家判断可信度的方法，其主要思路是首先通过图论中最小生成树的方法提取专家判断矩阵的全部信息，其次，使用相对熵指标确定获得专家判断的最终结果，并同时衡量专家自身判断的统一程度，从而确定专家判断的相对客观可信度。最后，文章给出一个典型的算例以说明该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Quotient probabilistic normed spaces and completeness results

We introduce the concept of quotient in PN spaces and give some examples. We prove some theorems with regard to the completeness of a quotient.     

一类二元相关威布尔分布的可靠性问题

本文考虑生存函数为${\ol{F}(x_{1},x_{2})}=\exp\{-[(x_{1}^{1/\alpha}/\theta_{1})^{1/\delta}+(x_{2}^{1/\alpha}/\theta_{2})^{1/\delta}]^{\delta}\},\;x_{i}>0,\;\alpha>0$, $1\geq\delta>0,\;\theta_{i}>0\;(i=1,2)$的二元威布尔分布的两种可靠性问题, 提出可靠度$\pr$的估计并讨论了它们的渐近性, 最后还作了模拟计算.     

Maximum norms of random sums and transient pattern formation

Many interesting and complicated patterns in the applied sciences are formed through transient pattern formation processes. In this paper we concentrate on the phenomenon of spinodal decomposition in metal alloys as described by the Cahn-Hilliard equation. This model depends on a small parameter, and one is generally interested in establishing sharp lower bounds on the amplitudes of the patterns as the parameter approaches zero. Recent results on spinodal decomposition have produced such lower bounds. Unfortunately, for higher-dimensional base domains these bounds are orders of magnitude smaller than what one would expect from simulations and experiments. The bounds exhibit a dependence on the dimension of the domain, which from a theoretical point of view seemed unavoidable, but which could not be observed in practice.

In this paper we resolve this apparent paradox. By employing probabilistic methods, we can improve the lower bounds for certain domains and remove the dimension dependence. We thereby obtain optimal results which close the gap between analytical methods and numerical observations, and provide more insight into the nature of the decomposition process. We also indicate how our results can be adapted to other situations.

     

Zeroth-order phase transitions and Zipf law quantization

From the standpoint of thermodynamic averaging of fission microprocesses, we investigate the origin of radioactive release in an NPP after an accident or after resource depletion. The genesis of the NPP release is interpreted as a new thermodynamic phenomenon, a zeroth-order phase transition. This problem setting results in a problem in probabilistic number theory. We prove the corresponding theorem leading to quantization of the Zipf law for the frequency of a zeroth-order phase transition with different values of the jump of the Gibbs thermodynamic potential. We introduce the notion of hole dimension. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 150, No. 1, pp. 118–142, January, 2007.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Condition Numbers for Linear Programming

In this paper, we provide bounds for the expected value of the log of the condition number C(A) of a linear feasibility problem given by a n × m matrix A (Ref. 1). We show that this expected value is O(min{n, m log n}) if n > m and is O(log n) otherwise. A similar bound applies for the log of the condition number C _R(A) introduced by Renegar (Ref. 2).     

抽样调查中最佳测量次数的确定

现场抽样调查中，由于测量误差的存在，使得所测变量实测值的方差增大，通过增加每个体的测量次数可以控制测量误差，但这样每个体调查费用增大。本文对测量信度Ｒ，每个体测量次数ｍ与相应所需的样本含量ｎｍ、调查费用Ｔｎ的关系进行了探讨，并介绍了如何根据Ｒ，及每个体测量费用占其总费用构成比Ｃ，确定最佳测量次数ｍ值，以达到最佳控制调查费用的目的，这对我们在大型现场调查中进行经济效益分析具有重大的理论指导意义。