基于网络媒体信息的传染病传播模型及其仿真研究

当一种突发传染病开始流行时,政府、媒体会以各种形式告知民众,有防范意识的民众将采取一定的防范措施来降低感染率.考虑面对一种突发传染病,将易感群体划分为具有防范意识和不具有防范意识两种群体,利用生命周期理论,分析网络媒体信息报道对传染病传播的影响,以此为依据建立一种改进的传染病传播模型(MSI).利用网络大数据得到对传染病有防范意识群体的观测值信息,利用神经网络技术对模型MSI的参数进行反演.然后对模型MSI数值仿真得到传染病传播过程,提出了相应的控制措施.     

少子寿命和表面形貌与多孔硅发光性能的关系

研究了不同时间腐蚀的多孔硅的光致发光性能与多孔硅的表面形貌和少子寿命之间的关系。结果表明,多孔硅的发光来自与氧空位有关的缺陷,而多孔硅表面的氢原子能够钝化多孔硅表面的非辐射中心从而提高多孔硅的发光效率。多孔硅的空隙度随腐蚀时间的延长而增大,这也导致了多孔硅的少子寿命的降低,从而造成多孔硅的光致发光效率随多孔硅空隙度的增大以及少子寿命的降低而提高。另外,原子力显微照片表明长时间的腐蚀使多孔硅表面层被化学腐蚀,从而降低了多孔硅表面的粗糙度。     

The Cradle-to-Cradle Life Cycle Assessment of Polyethylene terephthalate: Environmental Perspective

Over the last several years, the number of concepts and technologies enabling the production of environmentally friendly products (including materials, consumables, and services) has expanded. One of these ways is cradle-to-cradle (C2C) certified^TM. Life cycle assessment (LCA) technique is used to highlight the advantages of C2C and recycling as a method for reducing plastic pollution and fossil depletion by indicating the research limitations and gaps from an environmental perspective. Also, it estimates the resources requirements and focuses on sound products and processes. The C2C life cycle measurements for petroleum-based poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET) bottles, with an emphasis on different end-of-life options for recycling, were taken for mainland China, in brief. It is considered that the product is manufactured through the extraction of crude oil into ethylene glycol and terephthalic acid. The CML analysis method was used in the LCIA for the selected midpoint impact categories. LCA of the product has shown a drastic aftermath in terms of environmental impacts and energy use. But the estimation of these consequences is always dependent on the system and boundary conditions that were evaluated throughout the study. The impacts that burden the environment are with the extraction of raw material, resin, and final product production. Minor influences occurred due to the waste recycling process. This suggests that waste degradation is the key process to reduce the environmental impacts of the production systems. Lowering a product’s environmental impact can be accomplished in a number of ways, including reducing the amount of materials used or choosing materials with a minimal environmental impact during manufacture processes.     

中国的百岁老人研究Ⅱ.百岁老人的死亡率、生存率和发展趋势

根据全国人口普查资料,用指数函数拟合法计算了中国百岁老人的死亡率和生存率,得出中国人口的最高自然寿限为120岁,并预测到2010年中国百岁老人绝对数将达4万多人,届时每百万人口中将有30位百岁老人,比2000年增加1倍以上。     

Valuation and risk assessment of participating life insurance in the presence of credit risk

In participating life insurance, management decisions regarding the asset composition can substantially impact the value of a policy from the policyholders’ perspective as well as the insurer’s risk situation. Due to the long-term guarantees often embedded in these contracts, life insurers typically invest a considerable portion of their capital in long-term assets such as corporate and government bonds. Besides interest rate risk, the value of these bond investments is thus particularly influenced by credit risk. Thus, the aim of this paper is to examine the impact of market risk associated with the asset composition on fair valuation and risk assessment with focus on credit risk and its interaction with equity risk and interest rate risk. Our analysis emphasizes that the consideration of credit risk associated with bonds has a strong impact on the fair valuation and risk measurement in the context of participating life insurance contracts, even in case of higher grade bond exposures.     

组合发电仪的制作

仪器应用生活中常见的材料,仅仅围绕物理学科知识,通过巧妙设计,组装出一系列发电机。旨在让学生明白各种发电机的工作原理,以及能量之间是如何相互转化的,培养学生节约能源,保护环境利用清洁能源的意识。此外本仪器制作简单,便于学生亲手制作,锻炼动手能力的同时,又可提高学习兴趣。     

大自然为什么选择磷主导生命

磷酸单酯和双酯被漫长的进化过程选择为生命体的核心.磷酸酯功能的多样性需要磷酰基转移酶不断地进化来实现.现今磷酰基转移酶的催化机制已经得到了广泛研究.通过高分辨X射线晶体衍射技术(X-ray)与19FNMR的联用,来研究磷酰基转移酶的金属氟化物过渡态类似物,可以从原子层面上阐述磷酰基转移的机理.该催化机理充分地解释了磷酸酯的一对相互"矛盾"的性质,即磷酸酯结构的极其稳定性与磷酰基在信号传导过程中的灵活可调性.通过对元素周期表中其他元素的含氧酸根及其酯的性质的研究,目前还无法找出一个更加合适的元素来替代磷的这些重要功能,因而这些证据都支持了Todd的说法:"哪里有生命,哪里就一定有磷".     

An energy-based microstructure model to account for fatigue scatter in polycrystals

Scatter observed in the fatigue response of a nickel-based superalloy, U720, is linked to the variability in the microstructure. Our approach is to model the energy of a persistent slip band (PSB) structure and use its stability with respect to dislocation motion as our failure criterion for fatigue crack initiation. The components that contribute to the energy of the PSB are identified, namely, the stress field resulting from the applied external forces, dislocation pile-ups, and work-hardening of the material is calculated at the continuum scale. Further, energies for dislocations creating slip in the matrix/precipitates, interacting with the GBs, and nucleating/agglomerating within the PSB are computed via molecular dynamics simulations. Through this methodology, fatigue life is predicted based on the energy of the PSB, which inherently accounts for the microstructure of the material. The present approach circumvents the introduction of uncertainty principles in material properties. It builds a framework based on mechanics of microstructure, and from this framework, we construct simulated microstructures based on the measured distributions of grain size, orientation, neighbor information, and grain boundary character, which allows us to calculate fatigue scatter using a deterministic approach. The uniqueness of the approach is that it avoids the large number of parameters prevalent in previous fatigue models. The predicted lives are in excellent agreement with the experimental data validating the model capabilities.     

Percentile residual life orders

In this paper we study a family of stochastic orders of random variables defined via the comparison of their percentile residual life functions. Some interpretations of these stochastic orders are given, and various properties of them are derived. The relationships to other stochastic orders are also studied. Finally, some applications in reliability theory and finance are described. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.