Back to the future: A retrospective assessment of model‐based scenarios for the management of the shrimp fishery in French Guiana facing global change

While the number of models dedicated to predicting the consequences of alternative resource management strategies has increased, instances in which authors look back at past predictions to learn from discrepancies between these and observed developments are scarce. In the past decades, the French Guiana shrimp fishery has experienced shrimp market globalization and decreasing levels of shrimp recruitment due to environmental changes. In 2006, a bio‐economic model of this fishery was developed to simulate its possible responses to economic and environmental scenarios up to 2016. Here, we compare here these predictions to the observed trajectories. While the number of active vessels corresponds to that which was predicted, the estimated shrimp stock does not. Important driving factors had not been anticipated, including a general strike, natural disasters, and the end of the global financial crisis. These results show the importance of participative approaches involving stakeholders in the co‐construction and shared representation of scenarios. Recommendations for resource managers

• Effective fisheries resources management and a fortiori, the capacity of the fisheries to adapt to global change, requires understanding of both ecological and economics dynamics.
• The temporal trajectory of the trawling shrimp fisheries has been well monitored, and the decline of both stock and fleet is understood regarding ecological and economic changes: Changes in the environmental conditions of shrimp recruitment, and oil price increase and selling price decrease.
• However, our bio‐economic modeling work showed that, even with a good understanding of the dynamics explaining past trajectories, unpredictable events (strike, natural disasters…) have acted as other key driving factors altering the capacity of the model to represent possible futures.
• These results led us to recommend a better integration of the expertise of social and political scientists in developing models of bio‐economic systems to increase the quality of scenario predictions, and to argue for more participative approaches involving the stakeholders.

     

A possible human counterpart of the principle of increasing entropy

It is well-known that the principle of increasing entropy holds for isolated natural systems that contain non-adaptive molecules. Here we present, for the first time, an experimental evidence for a possible human counterpart of the principle in an isolated social system that involves adaptive humans. Our work shows that the human counterpart is valid even though interactions among humans in social systems are distinctly different from those among molecules in natural systems. Thus, it becomes possible to understand social systems from this natural principle, at least to some extent.     

Numerical simulation of indoor suspension particles based on v-f model

This paper presents a new algorithm for the prediction of indoor suspension particle dispersion based on a v²-f model. In order to handle the near-wall turbulence anisotropy properly, which is significant in the dispersion of fine particles, the particle eddy diffusivity is calculated using different formulae among regions of the turbulent core and in the vicinity of walls. The new algorithm is validated by several cases performed in two ventilated rooms with various air distribution patterns. The simulation results reveal that v²-f nonlinear turbulence model combined with a particle convective equation gives satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. It is generally found that the dynamic equation combined with the v²-f model can properly handle low Reynolds number (LRN) flows which are usually encountered in indoor air flows and fine particle dispersion.     

A vectorial algorithm with finite element method for prediction of powder segregation in metal injection molding

The design of the mold and the choice of the injection parameters for metal injection molding (MIM) is required to maintain homogeneity of the filled mixture. However, powder segregation is unavoidable in MIM because of the significant difference in densities of the metallic powder and the polymer binder. To achieve an effective prediction of segregation effect, a biphasic model based on mixture theory is employed. The viscous behaviors of each phase and the interaction coefficient between the flows of the two phases should be determined. The solution of two coupled Navier–Stokes equations results in a tremendous computation effort. The previous development of an explicit algorithm makes the biphasic simulation much faster than that of the classic methods. However, it is strongly desired to reduce or even eliminate the numerous global solutions for pressure fields at each time step. Hence, a new vectorial algorithm is proposed and developed to perform the simulation only by vectorial operations. It provides the anticipated efficiency in the simulation of biphasic modeling, and the advantage to use the classic elements of equal‐order interpolations. Some results produced by the two algorithms are compared with the experimental values to validate the new vectorial algorithm. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A novel molecularly imprinted method with computational simulation for the affinity isolation and knockout of baicalein from Scutellaria baicalensis

A novel molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP) was synthesized by precipitation polymerization with baicalein (BAI) as the template and used as solid‐phase extraction (SPE) adsorbent, aiming at the affinity isolation and selective knockout of BAI from Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi (SB). We used computational simulation to predict the optimal functional monomer, polymerization solvent and molar ratio of template to functional monomer. Characterization and performance tests revealed that MIP exhibited uniform spherical morphology, rapid binding kinetics, and higher adsorption capacity for BAI compared with nonimprinted polymer (NIP). The application of MIP in SPE coupled with high‐performance liquid chromatography to extract BAI from SB showed excellent recovery (94.3%) and purity (97.0%). Not only the single BAI compound, but also the BAI‐removed SB extract was obtained by one‐step process. This new method is useful for isolation and knockout of key bioactive compounds from herbal medicines. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface correlations of hydrodynamic drag for transitionally rough engineering surfaces

Rough surfaces are usually characterised by a single equivalent sand-grain roughness height scale that typically needs to be determined from laboratory experiments. Recently, this method has been complemented by a direct numerical simulation approach, whereby representative surfaces can be scanned and the roughness effects computed over a range of Reynolds number. This development raises the prospect over the coming years of having enough data for different types of rough surfaces to be able to relate surface characteristics to roughness effects, such as the roughness function that quantifies the downward displacement of the logarithmic law of the wall. In the present contribution, we use simulation data for 17 irregular surfaces at the same friction Reynolds number, for which they are in the transitionally rough regime. All surfaces are scaled to the same physical roughness height. Mean streamwise velocity profiles show a wide range of roughness function values, while the velocity defect profiles show a good collapse. Profile peaks of the turbulent kinetic energy also vary depending on the surface. We then consider which surface properties are important and how new properties can be incorporated into an empirical model, the accuracy of which can then be tested. Optimised models with several roughness parameters are systematically developed for the roughness function and profile peak turbulent kinetic energy. In determining the roughness function, besides the known parameters of solidity (or frontal area ratio) and skewness, it is shown that the streamwise correlation length and the root-mean-square roughness height are also significant. The peak turbulent kinetic energy is determined by the skewness and root-mean-square roughness height, along with the mean forward-facing surface angle and spanwise effective slope. The results suggest feasibility of relating rough-wall flow properties (throughout the range from hydrodynamically smooth to fully rough) to surface parameters.     

Simulating gas–liquid multiphase flow using meshless Lagrangian method

A multiphase flow model has been established based on a moving particle semi‐implicit method. A surface tension model is introduced to the particle method to improve the numerical accuracy and stability. Several computational techniques are employed to simplify the numerical procedure and further improve the accuracy. A particle fraction multiphase flow model is developed and verified by a two‐phase Poiseuille flow. The multiphase surface tension model is discussed in detail, and an ethanol drop case is introduced to verify the surface tension model. A simple dam break is simulated to demonstrate the improvements with various modifications in particle method along with a new boundary condition. Finally, we simulate several bubble rising cases to show the capacity of this new model in simulating gas–liquid multiphase flow with large density ratio difference between phases. The comparisons among numerical results of mesh‐based model, experimental data, and the present model, indicate that the new multiphase particle method is acceptable in gas–liquid multiphase fluids simulation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Full rate constant matrix contraction method for obtaining branching ratio of unimolecular decomposition

The branching ratio of unimolecular decomposition can be evaluated by solving the rate equations. Recent advances in automated reaction path search methods have enabled efficient construction of the rate equations based on quantum chemical calculations. However, it is still difficult to solve the rate equations composed of hundreds or more elementary steps. This problem is especially serious when elementary steps that occur in highly different timescales coexist. In this article, we introduce an efficient approach to obtain the branching ratio from a given set of rate equations. It has been derived from a recently proposed rate constant matrix contraction (RCMC) method, and termed full‐RCMC (f‐RCMC). The f‐RCMC gives the branching ratio without solving the rate equations. Its performance was tested numerically for unimolecular decomposition of C₃H₅ and C₄H₅. Branching ratios obtained by the f‐RCMC precisely reproduced the values obtained by numerically solving the rate equations. It took about 95 h to solve the rate equations of C₄H₅ consisting of 234 elementary steps. In contrast, the f‐RCMC gave the branching ratio in less than 1 s. The f‐RCMC would thus be an efficient alternative of the conventional kinetic simulation approach. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.