Long-range predictive adaptive fuzzy relational control

A class of long-range predictive adaptive fuzzy relational controllers is presented. The plant behavior is described over an extended time horizon by a fuzzy relational model which is identified based on input-output closed-loop observations of the plant variables. In this class of adaptive controllers the control law attempts to minimize a quadratic cost over an extended control horizon. When used with linear models, this approach has revealed a significant potential for overcoming the limitations of one-step ahead schemes, such as the stabilization of non-minimum phase plants. Here, a uniform framework is adopted for implementing both the fuzzy model and the fuzzy controller, namely distributed fuzzy relational structures gaining from their massive parallel processing features and from the learning capabilities typical of the connectivist approaches. Issues such as maintenance during the adaptation process of the meaning of linguistic terms used at both fuzzy systems interfaces are addressed, namely by introducing a new design methodology for on-line fuzzy systems interface adaptation. The examples presented reinforce the claim of the usefulness of this new approach.     

Evaluation of the Kushida Method of short-term earthquake prediction

Kushida and Kushida found that FM radio waves from stations at distances over-the-horizon are received before earthquakes. Based on this finding, since the mid-1990’s, the Kushidas have been practicing “Earthquake Precursor Detection Experiment”. The performance of the Kushida method during 2000–2003 has been evaluated by checking their predictions against the actual seismicity. During the period, there were 92 Kushida predictions mentioning the possibility of M ≥ 5.5 event, whereas there were 49 M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in the Japanese region. If the criteria for successful prediction are set as: the errors in date is less than one day, epicentral position is roughly within specified area, and error in M is less than 0.5, the success rate was 20% and the alarm rate was 12%. If we relax the criteria to: the errors in dates within 10 days, epicenter within additional 100 km of specified area and the magnitude error less than 1.0, the success rate was 40% and the alarm rate was 27%. These rates may look insufficient for a practical prediction method. Considering, however, the fact that no other short-term prediction has ever been made in Japan so far it is a significant achievement. Moreover, it was found that in almost all failed predictions, meaningful signals were detected although the interpretations were incorrect. This indicates that the method is promising provided further investigation is carried out. The same evaluation at the M ≥ 6.0 level showed that the general performance was similar to the M ≥ 5.5 level, except that both success rate and alarm rate were lower at the M ≥ 6.0 level. If this unexpected finding is real, it might be inherent to the methodology using scattering of short-wave length radio waves as suggested by M. Hayakawa and may contain important information in understanding the earthquake physics and LAI-coupling. The results of the present study indicate strongly that the earthquake prediction research using anomalous transmission of VHF FM radio waves should be enhanced in parallel with complementary research in other frequency ranges.     

多级轴流压气机全工况特性计算

本文使用三维粘性流动计算软件Fine／Numeca,对某十五级轴流压气机进行了内流流场和全工况特性的数值计算尝试。分析了该压气机在设计工况和非设计工况的性能,同时把整机计算结果和前七级叶片的计算结果进行了比较。计算结果表明,当计算的级数较少时,目前的软件和硬件平台可以比较合理地预测压气机的全工况特性;而当计算的级数较多时,准确的数值模拟仍需要更为准确的多级模型和数值方法。     

An accurate method to predict the stress concentration in composite laminates with a circular hole under tensile loading

The paper presents a theoretical-numerical hybrid method for determining the stresses distribution in composite laminates containing a circular hole and subjected to uniaxial tensile loading. The method is based upon an appropriate corrective function allowing a simple and rapid evaluation of stress distributions in a generic plate of finite width with a hole based on the theoretical stresses distribution in an infinite plate with the same hole geometry and material. In order to verify the accuracy of the method proposed, various numerical and experimental tests have been performed by considering different laminate lay-ups; in particular, the experimental results have shown that a combined use of the method proposed and the well-know point-stress criterion leads to reliable strength predictions for GFRP or CFRP laminates with a circular hole. Russian translation published in Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 531–570, July–August, 2007.     

A procedure for measuring the flexibility of single wood-pulp fibres

A way of determining the flexibility of wood-pulp fibres is developed, which involves i) a precise measurement of the topology of single-fibres by using a confocal laser scanning microscope and ii) the measurement of the elastic modulus of the fibres by using a single-fibre fatigue cell. Reported in this paper are the initial results of tests carried out on black spruce fibres, which have been subjected to three different levels of mechanical refining energy, namely ∼1100, 2300, and 3500 kWh/t. It is found that the fibre flexibility rises significantly between the first and second energy levels, but it does not change to the same degree between the second and third ones. The described procedure of measuring the flexibility of fibres may be used to establish the appropriate refiner energy necessary for the production of a specific grade of paper. Russian translation published in Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 115–128, January–February, 2006.     

模糊神经网络在复合地基沉降量预测中的应用

复合地基后期沉降变形对于建筑物设计及安全具有重要意义,针对通过长期沉降观测以得到复合地基的最终沉降需要耗费较多资源的问题,提出了一种基于模糊神经网络的预测方法.该方法考虑沉降变化过程有较大的随机性和模糊性,直接将样本数据进行模糊化,所得的模糊数代表了样本点集与控制点集中各分量之间的相关度,并依此建立模糊BP神经网络进行学习和估算.实验结果表明了该方法对沉降进行预测是可行与有效的,且在相对误差的有效控制方面优于BP网络方法与灰色方法.     

气密性碳涂覆光纤筛选强度与电阻关系研究

通过实验分析确立了把光纤电阻作为衡量气密性碳涂覆光纤通过２％应变筛选的过渡标准。要拉制２％应变筛选的碳涂覆光纤，其电阻值应小于３０ｋΩ／ｃｍ。     

微通道板增益疲劳机理研究

微通道板的增益疲劳是微通道板的主要问题之一，本文分析了微通道板的表面结构模型，同通道板活性表面上碱金属的逸出和碳的增加是导致微通道板的增益疲劳的主要原因，另外，探讨碱金属逸出的机理和碳污染的来源，介绍延长微通道板工作寿命的有效方法。     

稀土复合变质对新型铸造热锻模具钢组织与性能的影响

研究了稀土复合变质对新型铸造热锻模具钢（CHD钢）组织与性能的组织。结果表明，稀土复合变质能细化晶粒，并且随着稀土量的增加。细化效果明显；加入适量的稀土复合变质后，夹杂物数量明显减少，夹杂物趋于球化并均匀地分布在钢中，形态和分布得以了改善，向钢中加入稀土进行复合变质，能促进贝氏体、奥氏体和位错亚结构的形成，细化马氏体板条。当残留稀土含量为0.02%时，CHD钢的硬度、强度变化不大，断裂韧性（KIC）和疲劳裂纹扩展门槛值（△Kth）有所提高，冲击韧性、延伸率、断面收缩率提高了近一倍，抗热疲劳性能也最好。     

不同常压流化床煤气化方案的模型预测 Ⅰ. 模型建立及验证

为评价不同气化方案对常压流化床气化的影响，从化学动力学角度并结合化学平衡建立了流化床气化模型，该模型考虑了煤热解和气化所经历的各反应过程。模型预测结果与文献报道的试验数据吻合较好，气化组分的平方误差和在10%左右，表明该模型可以用来预测各种气化方案对常压流化床气化的气化过程、生成煤气组分和气化效率等方面的影响。