基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价

鱼类经常采用垂直流向的摆动进行游动, 这种摆动可以用行进波来表示. 应用浸入边界方法模拟了低雷诺数条件下水翼NACA65-010在水中摆动时的流场,并研究了雷诺数对水生动物推进效率的影响. 结果表明：随着雷诺数的增大,推力系数和推进效率增大,而功率系数减小;在Re<20时,推力系数,推进效率和功率系数的变化尤为剧烈. 随雷诺数增加,由于水翼摆动诱导的流场变化也更加复杂,水翼后缘处的涡量场强度逐渐增强. 摆动诱导反卡门涡街产生推力.     

Concurrent concentration declines in groundwater-dissolved radon,methane and ethane precursory to 2011 MW 5.0 Chimei earthquake

Radon volatilization mechanism into the gas phase was hypothesized to explain the anomalous declines in groundwater radon precursory to three major earthquakes – (1) 2003 M_W = 6.8 Chengkung, (2) 2006 M_W = 6.1 Taitung, and (3) 2008 M_W = 5.4 Antung in Taiwan. The epicenters were located 24 km, 52 km, and 13 km from the Antung radon-monitoring well D1, respectively. To verify the mechanism of in situ volatilization, we monitored groundwater-dissolved ethane in addition to radon and methane at well D1 in the Antung hot spring since November 30, 2010. The mechanism of in situ radon volatilization has been corroborated by the simultaneous concentration declines in groundwater-dissolved radon, methane, and ethane precursory to the 2011 M_W 5.0 Chimei earthquake. The epicenter was located 32 km from the Antung radon-monitoring well D1. Observations at the Antung hot spring also suggest that radon is the best-choice tracer among the groundwater-dissolved gases for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake. On the southern segment of the Chihshang fault, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases.     

线性Errors-in-Variables模型在确定汶川地震主震断层面中的应用

首先介绍线性Errors-in-Variables模型,给出求解回归系数的奇异值分解(SVD)算法和MATLAB源代码,其次指出在模型中所有变量均具有不可忽略的误差时,全最小二乘法得到回归系数估计更接近于模型中的真实系数,并通过理论分析和计算机仿真说明了这一结果,最后将线性模型和算法用于确定汶川大地震主震断层面,取得了与震源机制解一致的结果,说明了模型和算法的有效性。     

A Linear Complementarity Approach for the Non-convex Seismic Frictional Interaction between Adjacent Structures under Instabilizing Effects*

The paper deals with a numerical treatment of the dynamic hemivariational inequality problem concerning the elastoplastic-fracturing unilateral contact with friction between neighboring structures under second-order geometric effects during earthquakes. The numerical procedure is based on an incremental problem formulation and on a double discretization, in space by the finite element method and in time by the Houbolt method. The generally nonconvex constitutive contact laws are piece-wise linearized, and in each time-step a nonconvex linear complementarity problem is solved with a reduced number of unknowns.     

汶川地震诱发大型滑坡分布规律研究

2008年5 ·12汶川地震由于其超常的地震动力,触发了数百处大型滑坡灾害。本文以遥感解译所获取的汶川地震区112处面积大于50000m²大型滑坡的基本信息为基础,结合代表性大型滑坡实例的现场调绘,对汶川地震诱发大型滑坡的发育分布规律进行了较系统的研究。结果表明,汶川地震大型滑坡分布除表现出与汶川地震诱发区域性地质灾害类似的分布规律之外,因主要源于发震断层瞬间大幅度错动的直接地震动力引发的大型滑坡,其发育分布及滑动、运动方式还表现出自身的特点,具体可归结为以下几种效应: (1)距离效应:约80%的大型滑坡集中分布于发震断裂地表破裂带两侧5km的范围内,距离越远,滑坡分布数量越少; (2)锁固段效应:汶川地震诱发的大型滑坡主要集中分布在与发震断裂的交叉、错列、转换部位及NE段末端等5个集中区段。其中,红白-茶坪段是大型滑坡最为集中发育段,不仅滑坡数量多,而且规模大,汶川地震诱发的最大两处滑坡均分布于此段。其次为断裂NE段末端的南坝-东河口段,该段大型滑坡密集发育,东河口滑坡和窝前滑坡等大型滑坡均出露于此段; (3)上下盘效应:绝大多数(>70%)大型滑坡都位于活动断裂的上盘,存在明显的"上下盘效应"; (4)方向效应:在与发震断裂带近于垂直的沟谷斜坡中,在地震波传播的背坡面一侧的滑坡发育密度明显大于迎坡面一侧,存在"背坡面效应"。同时,大型滑坡的滑动及运动方向还与各区段断层的错动方向有一定的相关性。在断层活动以右旋走滑为主的青川境内,有相当数量的滑坡表现出向NE方向滑动和运动的特点。     

An integrated model for earthquake risk and damage assessment

The primary objective of this paper was to develop an integrated model for earthquake risk and damage assessment. This model consists of three major submodules - the physical damage functions, the economic damage functions, and the institutional aspects related to risk mitigation policies and community preparedness. While the physical damage functions are related to earthquake risk prediction utilizing both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, the economic damage functions refer to the potential vulnerability of various populations at earthquake risk.The feasibility of this model was tested with historical and projected data on earthquake risk and impacted populations for the New Madrid Fault region which includes St. Louis and Memphis Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. If the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes would recur between 1980 and 2030, the damage results from the simulations of this model based on the status quo scenario, indicate that the region would experience structural losses in billions of dollars and a death toll of hundreds of persons.     

红石河堰塞湖漫顶溃坝风险评估

四川省青川县红石河堰塞湖是2008年5月12日汶川大地震形成的34座大型堰塞湖之一,是由东河口滑坡堵塞红石河形成的。该堰塞体高度约50 m、宽度约250 m、顺河向长度约500 m、形成的最大库容约400万m3。本文作者对红石河堰塞体做了较详尽的现场试验,包括土的冲蚀试验、土的基本物性试验等。基于现场试验数据,对土的冲蚀性和漫顶溃坝风险做了详细的分析。结果显示,从土的抗冲蚀性角度考虑,只要有水溢出就会有土体被冲蚀,这说明红石河堰塞体的漫顶溃决可能性较高。本文还提出经验公式来预测红石河堰塞体漫顶的溃决时间,大约为4.5d,如果考虑到大石块对抗冲蚀稳定性的有利影响,这一数值会增大。此外,还研究了溃决深度随时间的变化规律。     

Research of air-cushion isolation effects on high arch dam reservoir

A three-dimensional (3D) finite element model of air-cushion isolated arch dam is presented with the nonlinear gas-liquid-solid multi-field dynamic coupling effect taken into account.In this model,the displacement formulation in Lagrange method,pressure formulation in Euler method,nonlinear contact model based on Coulomb friction law are applied to the air-cushion,reservoir and contraction joint domain,respectively.The dynamic response of Jinping I arch dam with a height of 305 m is analyzed using the seismic records of the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008.Numerical results show that the air-cushion isolation reduces significantly the hydrodynamic pressure as well as the opening width for the contraction joints of high arch dam.     

An estimate of maximum ground surface motion for non zero surface velocityEstimation du mouvement sismique maximal à la surface du sol pour une celerite d'ondes non nulle en surface

The increasing need for probability seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of critical facilities sometimes leads to unrealistic earthquake scenarios with very high induced ground motions. From a physical standpoint these high motions cannot exist because of the limiting resistance capacity of the soil strata through which the seismic waves travel. A simple analytical model is proposed to bound the maximum ground surface acceleration that any soil deposit can transfer. This model is an extension to non zero ground surface velocity of a previously presented model. To cite this article: A. Pecker, C. R. Mecanique 332 (2004).     

地震液化效应的综合评价

土的地震液化具有地基失效和隔振双重效应。本文在分析了这两种效应的基础上,提出了一种综合评价方法。