Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end （when μ = 1）. For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ= 0.4.     

物理化学全线上教学的策略与实践

受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响,学校的教学活动都转到线上进行。本文以天津大学"物理化学"课程为例,介绍了全线上教学的策略、过程设计与实施效果。通过进一步丰富线上教学资源、完善教学手段、实行全过程精细化管理,使得物理化学这门原本不太适合完全线上学习的课程,取得了满意的教学效果。学习过程中,学生的主体地位和教师的主导作用得以完美体现,获得的教学经验对于未来课程教学有很好的借鉴意义。     

Olive-Derived Triterpenes Suppress SARS COV-2 Main Protease: A Promising Scaffold for Future Therapeutics

SARS CoV-2 pandemic is still considered a global health disaster, and newly emerged variants keep growing. A number of promising vaccines have been recently developed as a protective measure; however, cost-effective treatments are also of great importance to support this critical situation. Previously, betulinic acid has shown promising antiviral activity against SARS CoV via targeting its main protease. Herein, we investigated the inhibitory potential of this compound together with three other triterpene congeners (i.e., ursolic acid, maslinic acid, and betulin) derived from olive leaves against the viral main protease (M^pro) of the currently widespread SARS CoV-2. Interestingly, betulinic, ursolic, and maslinic acids showed significant inhibitory activity (IC₅₀ = 3.22–14.55 µM), while betulin was far less active (IC₅₀ = 89.67 µM). A comprehensive in-silico analysis (i.e., ensemble docking, molecular dynamic simulation, and binding-free energy calculation) was then performed to describe the binding mode of these compounds with the enzyme catalytic active site and determine the main essential structural features required for their inhibitory activity. Results presented in this communication indicated that this class of compounds could be considered as a promising lead scaffold for developing cost-effective anti-SARS CoV-2 therapeutics.     

具有标准发生率的随机SIR传染病模型的建立及平稳分布与疾病灭绝研究

研究了一类具有标准发生率以及考虑随机扰动与系统变量成正比的随机SIR传染病模型.首先,对于任意的正的初值,系统存在唯一的全局正解以及通过构造合适的随机李雅普诺夫函数,得到了模型遍历平稳分布存在的充分条件.其次,给出了疾病灭绝的充分条件,并与模型遍历平稳分布存在的充分条件作对比,得出了在特定条件下随机SIR模型的阈值.最后通过数值模拟验证了结果的正确性.     

一类具有说服率的HIV/AIDS流行病模型

根据某市艾滋病出现的新特点,即外来人口对艾滋病的影响,给出了相应的传染病动力学模型,并进行了数值模拟.     

具有潜伏年龄和隔离的SEIQ流行病模型的稳定性

建立和研究了具潜伏带年龄和隔离的SEIQ流行病模型.运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到基本再生数R0的表达式,证明了当R0<1时,存在全局渐近稳定的无病平衡点,当R0>1时,无病平衡点不稳定,此时存在局部渐近稳定的地方病平衡点.     

SARS疫情分析及对北京疫情走势的预测

在考虑每个SARS病人每日平均传染概率和他的直接传染的平均期限的基础上，建立了一个统计分析模型．分析表明，每个病人可以造成直接感染他人的期限平均在20天左右，这个值在不同地区和不同疫情阶段似乎变化不大．病人的平均每天感染率与社会状况有关，在疫情爆发期较大，在疫情控制期要小很多．北京后期如果控制在香港后期的感染率水平上，则有望在6月上中旬下降到日增几例．然后再经过约一个月，即7月上中旬达到日增0病例，而累积总病例数将达到3100多．但如果北京的新病例下降速度与广东类似的话，则要再多花至少一个月，才能达到上述的效果，且累积总病例数会达到3800左右．     

POPULATION EXTINCTION IN DETERMINISTICAND STOCHASTIC DISCRETE‐TIME EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH PERIODIC COEFFICIENTS WITH APPLICATIONS TO AMPHIBIAN POPULATIONS

ABSTRACT. Discrete‐time deterministic and stochastic epidemic models are formulated for the spread of disease in a structured host population. The models have applications to a fungal pathogen affecting amphibian populations. The host population is structured according to two developmental stages, juveniles and adults. The juvenile stage is a post‐metamorphic, nonreproductive stage, whereas the adult stage is reproductive. Each developmental stage is further subdivided according to disease status, either susceptible or infected. There is no recovery from disease. Each year is divided into a fixed number of periods, the first period represents a time of births and the remaining time periods there are no births, only survival within a stage, transition to another stage or transmission of infection. Conditions are derived for population extinction and for local stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is shown that high transmission rates can destabilize the disease‐free equilibrium and low survival probabilities can lead to population extinction. Numerical simulations illustrate the dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models.     

化学教学新课堂：科学抗疫中的化学知识

As the break out of COVID-19 epidemic, the prevention and control work was consequently carried out. Chemistry plays an important role in the white war. The structure of mask contains the knowledge of interfacial chemistry. The material of mask encompasses the knowledge of polymer chemistry. Nucleic acid test and COVID-19 vaccine research need the knowledge of biological chemistry. The sanitizers involve the knowledge of inorganic and organic chemistry. The knowledge of physical chemistry takes effect in daily hand washing with soap. Each drug against COVID-19 virus was a complex organic compound. All the above things can be taken as appropriate examples in chemistry teaching to display the charm of chemistry. Meanwhile, these examples help students to realize that chemistry works as a vital part in our lives and therefore active their motivation to study chemistry well.     

A generalized nonautonomous SIRVS model

A nonautonomous SIRVS model with time‐dependent parameters is considered. The global dynamics is investigated, and conditions for the permanence, extinction, and disease‐free equilibrium are studied. Substitute quantities that replace the basic reproduction number are presented. Numerical simulations illustrate the dynamic behavior of the proposed model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.