Persistence in a discrete-time,stage-structured epidemic model

Discrete-time SI and SIR epidemic models, formulated by Emmert and Allen [J. Differ. Equ. Appl., 10 (2004), pp. 1177–1199] for the spread of a fungal disease in a structured amphibian host population, are analysed. Criteria for persistence of the population as well as for persistence of the disease are established. Global stability results for host extinction and for the disease-free equilibrium are presented.     

考虑意识对带媒介的SIS模型中疾病传播过程的影响

在无标度网络上,研究意识对带媒介的SIS模型中疾病传播过程的影响.最后的结果表明接触意识与局部意识能增加流行病阈值,而全局意识与媒介意识不能.     

Global stability of extended multi-group sir epidemic models with patches through migration and cross patch infection

In this article, we establish the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of multi-group SIR epidemic models, which have not only an exchange of individuals between patches through migration but also cross patch infection between different groups. As a result, we partially generalize the recent result in the article [16].     

Global stability of a multistrain SIS model with superinfection and patch structure

We study the global stability of a multistrain SIS model with superinfection and patch structure. We establish an iterative procedure to obtain a sequence of threshold parameters. By a repeated application of a result by Takeuchi et al. [Nonlinear Anal Real World Appl. 2006;7:235–247], we show that these parameters completely determine the global dynamics of the system: for any number of patches and strains with different infectivities, any subset of the strains can stably coexist depending on the particular choice of the parameters.     

Optimal control and numerical methods for hybrid stochastic SIS models

This work focuses on optimal controls of a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models under regime switching. By assuming that a decision maker can influence the infectivity period, our aim is to minimize the expected discounted cost due to illness, medical treatment, and the adverse effect on the society. In addition, a model with the incorporation of vaccination is proposed. Numerical schemes are developed by approximating the continuous-time dynamics using Markov chain approximation methods. It is demonstrated that the approximation schemes converge to the optimal strategy as the mesh size goes to zero. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate our results.     

Ergodic stationary distribution and practical application of a hybrid stochastic cholera transmission model with waning vaccine-induced immunity under nonlinear regime switching

Considering the effect of stochasticity including white noise and colored noise, this paper aims to study a hybrid stochastic cholera epidemic model with waning vaccine-induced immunity and nonlinear telegraph perturbations. First, we derive a critical value ${?}_0^C$ related to the basic reproduction number ${?}_0$ of the deterministic model. The key aim of this paper is to generalize the θ-stochastic criterion method proposed by the recent work (Han et al. in Chaos Solit Fract 140:110238, 2020) to eliminate nonlinear telegraph perturbations. Next, via constructing several θ-stochastic Lyapunov functions and using the generalized method, we further prove that the stochastic model have a unique ergodic stationary distribution under ${?}_0^C>1$. Results show that the prevention and control of cholera epidemic depend on low transmission rate and small telegraph perturbations. Finally, the corresponding numerical simulations are performed to illustrate our analytical results and a practical application on the Somalia cholera outbreak is shown at the end of this paper.     

一类具有年龄和病程的SEIR传染病模型无病平衡解分析

研究一类具有年龄和病程的SEIR传染病模型.利用特征线方法、Lebesgue控制收敛定理对无病平衡解的渐近性进行了分析,证明了当R1时无病平衡解是全局渐近吸引的.     

SARS传播的数学模型的建立与分析

建立一个SARS传播的实用的、可求解的改进SIR模型,并用差分方法进行求解。利用北京SARS病例数据对模型验证表明,拟合曲线与实际数据基本吻合,平均相对绝对值误差为0．0153。对隔离时机的提前或延后造成的后果进行数值分析,可得出最终确诊病例累计数与隔离时机的延长或提前呈指数增长或下降的结论。