北京市SARS疫情统计分析

本文对严重急性呼吸道综合症 SA RS疾病进行了统计分析 .文章首先以北京市海淀区 SARS确诊病例和疑似病例为研究对象 ,分别按照地区、人口进行了统计分析 ,得出海淀区不同小区疫情发展的显著程度 .然后利用正交试验设计 ,分别就年龄、性别、职业等因素对海淀区 SARS确诊病人和疑似病人影响程度进行了统计分析 ,得出 2 1岁到 50岁的学生和干部得病率最高的统计结果 ,这完全符合海淀区的疫情事实 .这个统计结果已经被海淀区政府“海淀区政府应急管理信息系统 ( H EMIS)”[6]采用 . H EMIS系统作为中国第一个政府应急系统在海淀区 SARS防治中起到了一定作用 [1 ] .文章最后研究了北京市每天新增的确诊病例和每天疑似病例转为确诊病例之间的相关系数 ,从它们的相关性分析可以反映出防治 SARS疫情措施的有效性 .     

具有染病年龄结构的SEIR流行病模型的稳定性

建立和研究了一类具有染病年龄结构的SEIR流行病模型.得到了该模型的基本再生数R0的表达式.证明了当R0<1时,无病平衡点E0不仅局部渐近稳定,而且全局吸引;当R0>1时,无病平衡点E0不稳定,此时存在稳定的地方病平衡点.     

A SIRS epidemic model with infection-age dependence

Based on J. Mena-Lorca and H.W. Hethcote's epidemic model, a SIRS epidemic model with infection-age-dependent infectivity and general nonlinear contact rate is formulated. Under general conditions, the unique existence of its global positive solutions is obtained. Moreover, under more general assumptions than the existing, the existence and asymptotical stability of its equilibria are discussed. In the end, the condition on the stability of endemic equilibrium is verified by a special model.     

北京非典型肺炎数学模型

探讨了北京非典型肺炎数学模型 ,利用动力学和非线性回归方法建立了北京非典型肺炎预测模型 .     

Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogenous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied to a broad class of epidemic models with only minimal modifications to the model dynamics and/or emission distribution. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Geometric approach to global asymptotic stability for the SEIRS models in epidemiology

In this paper, we present a more general criterion for the global asymptotic stability of equilibria for nonlinear autonomous differential equations based on the geometric criterion developed by Li and Muldowney. By applying this criterion, we obtain some results for the global asymptotic stability of SEIRS models with constant recruitment and varying total population size. Based on these results, we give a complete affirmative answer to Liu–Hethcote–Levin conjecture. Furthermore, an affirmative answer to Li–Graef–Wang–Karsai’s problem for SEIR model with permanent immunity and varying total population size is given.     

Monotonicity,uniqueness, and stability of traveling waves in a nonlocal reaction‐diffusion system with delay

The purpose of this paper is to study the traveling wave solutions of a nonlocal reaction‐diffusion system with delay arising from the spread of an epidemic by oral‐faecal transmission. Under monostable and quasimonotone it is well known that the system has a minimal wave speed c* of traveling wave fronts. In this paper, we first prove the monotonicity and uniqueness of traveling waves with speed c ?c _?. Then we show that the traveling wave fronts with speed c >c _? are exponentially asymptotically stable.     

Global dynamics of a Vector‐Borne disease model with two delays and nonlinear transmission rate

In this paper, we investigate a Vector‐Borne disease model with nonlinear incidence rate and 2 delays: One is the incubation period in the vectors and the other is the incubation period in the host. Under the biologically motivated assumptions, we show that the global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. The disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R₀≤1; when R₀>1, the system is uniformly persistent, and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Heterogeneous virus propagation in networks: a theoretical study

The node‐based epidemic modeling is an effective approach to the understanding of the impact of the structure of the propagation network on the epidemics of electronic virus. In view of the heterogeneity of the propagation network, a heterogeneous node‐based SIRS model is proposed. Theoretical analysis shows that the maximum eigenvalue of a matrix related to the model determines whether viruses tend to extinction or persist. When viruses persist, the connectedness of the propagation network implies the existence and uniqueness of a viral equilibrium, and a set of sufficient conditions for the global stability of the viral equilibrium are given. Numerical examples verify the correctness of our results. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.