Protection of flows under targeted attacks

We present a new robust optimization model for the problem of maximizing the amount of flow surviving the attack of an interdictor. Given some path flow, our model allows the interdictor to specify the amount of flow removed from each path individually. In contrast to previous models, for which no efficient algorithms are known, the most important basic variants of our model can be solved in poly-time. We also consider extensions where there is a budget to set the interdiction costs.     

Calibration transfer between electronic nose systems for rapid In situ measurement of pulp and paper industry emissions

Electronic nose systems when deployed in network mesh can effectively provide a low budget and onsite solution for the industrial obnoxious gaseous measurement. For accurate and identical prediction capability by all the electronic nose systems, a reliable calibration transfer model needs to be implemented in order to overcome the inherent sensor array variability. In this work, robust regression (RR) is used for calibration transfer between two electronic nose systems using a Box–Behnken (BB) design. Out of the two electronic nose systems, one was trained using industrial gas samples by four artificial neural network models, for the measurement of obnoxious odours emitted from pulp and paper industries. The emissions constitute mainly of hydrogen sulphide (H₂S), methyl mercaptan (MM), dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and dimethyl disulphide (DMDS) in different proportions. A Box–Behnken design consisting of 27 experiment sets based on synthetic gas combinations of H₂S, MM, DMS and DMDS, were conducted for calibration transfer between two identical electronic nose systems. Identical sensors on both the systems were mapped and the prediction models developed using ANN were then transferred to the second system using BB–RR methodology. The results showed successful transmission of prediction models developed for one system to other system, with the mean absolute error between the actual and predicted concentration of analytes in mg L⁻¹ after calibration transfer (on second system) being 0.076, 0.1801, 0.0329, 0.427 for DMS, DMDS, MM, H₂S respectively.     

Robust suboptimal control of nonlinear systems

In this paper, we consider a nonlinear dynamic system with uncertain parameters. Our goal is to choose a control function for this system that balances two competing objectives: (i) the system should operate efficiently; and (ii) the system’s performance should be robust with respect to changes in the uncertain parameters. With this in mind, we introduce an optimal control problem with a cost function penalizing both the system cost (a function of the final state reached by the system) and the system sensitivity (the derivative of the system cost with respect to the uncertain parameters). We then show that the system sensitivity can be computed by solving an auxiliary initial value problem. This result allows one to convert the optimal control problem into a standard Mayer problem, which can be solved directly using conventional techniques. We illustrate this approach by solving two example problems using the software MISER3.     

Sensitivity of risk measures with respect to the normal approximation of total claim distributions

A simple and commonly used method to approximate the total claim distribution of a (possibly weakly dependent) insurance collective is the normal approximation. In this article, we investigate the error made when the normal approximation is plugged in a fairly general distribution-invariant risk measure. We focus on the rate of convergence of the error relative to the number of clients, we specify the relative error’s asymptotic distribution, and we illustrate our results by means of a numerical example. Regarding the risk measure, we take into account distortion risk measures as well as distribution-invariant coherent risk measures.     

Improved results on robust stability of neutral systems with mixed time-varying delays and nonlinear perturbations

This paper considers the problem of robust stability of neutral systems with mixed time-varying delays and nonlinear perturbations. Two type uncertainties such as nonlinear time-varying parameter perturbations and norm-bounded uncertainties have been discussed. Based on the new Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional with triple integral terms, some integral inequalities and convex combination technique, a new delay-dependent stability criterion for the system is established in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Finally, four numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and an improvement over some existing results in the literature with the proposed results.     

Robust optimization and portfolio selection: The cost of robustness

Robust optimization is a tractable alternative to stochastic programming particularly suited for problems in which parameter values are unknown, variable and their distributions are uncertain. We evaluate the cost of robustness for the robust counterpart to the maximum return portfolio optimization problem. The uncertainty of asset returns is modelled by polyhedral uncertainty sets as opposed to the earlier proposed ellipsoidal sets. We derive the robust model from a min-regret perspective and examine the properties of robust models with respect to portfolio composition. We investigate the effect of different definitions of the bounds on the uncertainty sets and show that robust models yield well diversified portfolios, in terms of the number of assets and asset weights.     

ELECTRE: Robust ordinal regression for outranking methods

We present a new method, called ELECTRE^GKMS, which employs robust ordinal regression to construct a set of outranking models compatible with preference information. The preference information supplied by the decision maker (DM) is composed of pairwise comparisons stating the truth or falsity of the outranking relation for some real or fictitious reference alternatives. Moreover, the DM specifies some ranges of variation of comparison thresholds on considered pseudo-criteria. Using robust ordinal regression, the method builds a set of values of concordance indices, concordance thresholds, indifference, preference, and veto thresholds, for which all specified pairwise comparisons can be restored. Such sets are called compatible outranking models. Using these models, two outranking relations are defined, necessary and possible. Whether for an ordered pair of alternatives there is necessary or possible outranking depends on the truth of outranking relation for all or at least one compatible model, respectively. Distinguishing the most certain recommendation worked out by the necessary outranking, and a possible recommendation worked out by the possible outranking, ELECTRE^GKMS answers questions of robustness concern. The method is intended to be used interactively with incremental specification of pairwise comparisons, possibly with decreasing confidence levels. In this way, the necessary and possible outranking relations can be, respectively, enriched or impoverished with the growth of the number of pairwise comparisons. Furthermore, the method is able to identify troublesome pieces of preference information which are responsible for incompatibility. The necessary and possible outranking relations are to be exploited as usual outranking relations to work out recommendation in choice or ranking problems. The introduced approach is illustrated by a didactic example showing how ELECTRE^GKMS can support real-world decision problems.     

Short sales in Log-robust portfolio management

This paper extends the Log-robust portfolio management approach to the case with short sales, i.e., the case where the manager can sell shares he does not yet own. We model the continuously compounded rates of return, which have been established in the literature as the true drivers of uncertainty, as uncertain parameters belonging to polyhedral uncertainty sets, and maximize the worst-case portfolio wealth over that set in a one-period setting. The degree of the manager’s aversion to ambiguity is incorporated through a single, intuitive parameter, which determines the size of the uncertainty set. The presence of short-selling requires the development of problem-specific techniques, because the optimization problem is not convex. In the case where assets are independent, we show that the robust optimization problem can be solved exactly as a series of linear programming problems; as a result, the approach remains tractable for large numbers of assets. We also provide insights into the structure of the optimal solution. In the case of correlated assets, we develop and test a heuristic where correlation is maintained only between assets invested in. In computational experiments, the proposed approach exhibits superior performance to that of the traditional robust approach.     

Survivable network design with demand uncertainty

The objective in designing a communications network is to find the most cost efficient network design that specifies hardware devices to be installed, the type of transmission links to be installed, and the routing strategy to be followed. In this paper algorithmic ideas are presented for improving tractability in solving the survivable network design problem by taking into account uncertainty in the traffic requirements. Strategies for improving separation of metric inequalities are presented and an iterative approach for obtaining solutions, that significantly reduces computing times, is introduced. Computational results are provided based on data collected from an operational network.     

Robust equilibrium excess-of-loss reinsurance and CDS investment strategies for a mean–variance insurer with ambiguity aversion

This paper considers the robust equilibrium reinsurance and investment strategies for an ambiguity-averse insurer under a dynamic mean–variance criterion. The insurer is allowed to purchase excess-of-loss reinsurance and invest in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset and a credit default swap (CDS). Following a game theoretic approach, robust equilibrium strategies and equilibrium value functions for the pre-default case and the post-default case are derived, respectively. For the ambiguity-averse insurer, in general the equilibrium strategies can be characterized by unique solutions to some algebraic equations. For the degenerate case with an ambiguity-neutral insurer, closed-form expressions of equilibrium strategies and equilibrium value functions are obtained. Numerical examples demonstrate that the consideration of model uncertainty and CDS investment improves the insurer’s utility. In this regard, our paper establishes theoretical and numerical support for the importance of ambiguity aversion, credit risk and their interplay in insurance business.