Robust optimal reinsurance–investment strategy with price jumps and correlated claims

This paper considers the robust optimal reinsurance–investment strategy selection problem with price jumps and correlated claims for an ambiguity-averse insurer (AAI). The correlated claims mean that future claims are correlated with historical claims, which is measured by an extrapolative bias. In our model, the AAI transfers part of the risk due to insurance claims via reinsurance and invests the surplus in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price is described by a jump–diffusion model. Under the criterion of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth, we obtain closed-form solutions for the robust optimal reinsurance–investment strategy and the corresponding value function by using the stochastic dynamic programming approach. In order to examine the influence of investment risk on the insurer’s investment behavior, we further study the time-consistent reinsurance–investment strategy under the mean–variance framework and also obtain the explicit solution. Furthermore, we examine the relationship among the optimal reinsurance–investment strategies of the AAI under three typical cases. A series of numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate how the robust optimal reinsurance–investment strategy varies with model parameters, and result analyses reveal some interesting phenomena and provide useful guidances for reinsurance and investment in reality.     

Convex risk functionals: Representation and applications

We introduce the family of law-invariant convex risk functionals, which includes a wide majority of practically used convex risk measures and deviation measures. We obtain a unified representation theorem for this family of functionals. Two related optimization problems are studied. In the first application, we determine worst-case values of a law-invariant convex risk functional when the mean and a higher moment such as the variance of a risk are known. Second, we consider its application in optimal reinsurance design for an insurer. With the help of the representation theorem, we can show the existence and the form of optimal solutions.     

Robust tori-like Lagrangian coherent structures

In general the term “Lagrangian coherent structure” (LCS) is used to make reference about structures whose properties are similar to a time-dependent analog of stable and unstable manifolds from a hyperbolic fixed point in Hamiltonian systems. Recently, the term LCS was used to describe a different type of structure, whose properties are similar to those of invariant tori in certain classes of two-dimensional incompressible flows. A new kind of LCS was obtained. It consists of barriers, called robust tori that block the trajectories in certain regions of the phase space. We used the Double-Gyre Flow system as the model. In this system, the robust tori play the role of a skeleton for the dynamics and block, horizontally, vortices that come from different parts of the phase space.     

Robust dynamic pairs trading with cointegration

This paper investigates the robust optimal pairs trading using the concept of equivalent probability measures and a penalty function associated with the confidence in parameter estimates when the parameters in the drift term of the continuous-time cointegration model are estimated with errors. A closed-form solution is derived for the robust pairs trading rule. We compare the robust pairs trading rule against its non-robust counterpart using simulations and real data. The robust strategy is empirically more stable and less volatile.     

Robust empirical optimization is almost the same as mean–variance optimization

We formulate a distributionally robust optimization problem where the deviation of the alternative distribution is controlled by a $?$-divergence penalty in the objective, and show that a large class of these problems are essentially equivalent to a mean–variance problem. We also show that while a “small amount of robustness” always reduces the in-sample expected reward, the reduction in the variance, which is a measure of sensitivity to model misspecification, is an order of magnitude larger.     

The semi-continuous quadratic mixture design problem: Description and branch-and-bound approach

The semi-continuous quadratic mixture design problem (SCQMDP) is described as a problem with linear, quadratic and semi-continuity constraints. Moreover, a linear cost objective and an integer valued objective are introduced. The goal is to deal with the SCQMD problem from a branch-and-bound perspective generating robust solutions. Therefore, an algorithm is outlined which identifies instances where decision makers tighten requirements such that no ε-robust solution exists. The algorithm is tested on several cases derived from industry.     

Robust designs for models with possible bias and correlated errors

This paper studies the model-robust design problem for general models with an unknown bias or contamination and the correlated errors. The true response function is assumed to be from a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and the errors are fitted by the qth order moving average process MA（q）, especially the MA（1） errors and the MA（2） errors. In both situations, design criteria are derived in terms of the average expected quadratic loss for the least squares estimation by using a minimax method. A case is studied and the orthogonality of the criteria is proved for this special response. The robustness of the design criteria is discussed through several numerical examples.     

An optimal randomized algorithm for d-variate zonoid depth

A randomized linear expected-time algorithm for computing the zonoid depth [R. Dyckerhoff, G. Koshevoy, K. Mosler, Zonoid data depth: Theory and computation, in: A. Prat (Ed.), COMPSTAT 1996—Proceedings in Computational Statistics, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1996, pp. 235–240; K. Mosler, Multivariate Dispersion, Central Regions and Depth. The Lift Zonoid Approach, Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 165, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2002] of a point with respect to a fixed dimensional point set is presented.     

Robust ℋ∞-Filtering Design with Pole Placement Constraint via Linear Matrix Inequalities

The problem of robust filtering design for continuous-time systems with convex bounded uncertainties is addressed in this paper. The aim is to determine a stable linear filter such that the filtering error system remains quadratically stable within a prespecified -attenuation level. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of such robust filter are provided in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which can be solved efficiently through standard convex optimization procedures guaranteeing global convergence. Furthermore, as an improvement of the strategy, the filter dynamics can be constrained to some specific regions inside the left-half complex plane.