The paper focuses on the problem of long-range dependence when analysing time series of hydrological data. Three time series are analysed: the monthly rainfall in the town of Florence, Italy; the daily minimum temperatures in the same town; and, finally, the daily water inflow to Lake Maggiore, Italy. Heuristic methods and maximum likelihood estimation of a parametric model are used to investigate the Hurst phenomena and to detect whether long-range dependence is present in any of the time series. We found that long-range dependence is not present in the first series but it is present in the last two. The daily water inflow to Lake Maggiore was modelled by a fractionally differenced arima model (farima) which contains a long-range dependence component. It is shown that the fit is much better than the one provided by more traditional arima models that do not have such a component.
Sommario Lo studio considera il problema dell'identificazione dei fenomeni di dipendenza a lungo termine (long range dependence) nelle serie temporali di dati idrologici. Allo scopo sono state analizzate tre serie temporali, rispettivamente quella dei totali mensili di precipitazione rilevati alla stazione dell'Osservatorio Ximeniano de Firenze, quella delle temperature minime giornaliere per la stessa stazione e quella degli afflussi giornalieri al Lago Maggiore. Per identificare la presenza di fenomeni di dipendenza long range, attraverso la valutazione della consistenza del fenomeno di Hurst, sono stati utilizzati sia metodi euristici, sia la stima a massima verosimiglianza di un modello parametrico. Due delle tre serie analizzate sono risultate caratterizzate da tale dipendenza. Per la serie degli afflussi al Lago Maggiore, si è inoltre proceduto alla simulazione attraverso un modello arima a differenziazione frazionaria (farima), la cui struttura contiene una componente long-range. I risultati ottenuti, mostrano che tale modello fornisce risultati significativamente migliori dei tradizionali modelli arima, privi di tale componente.
Spherical harmonics have been important tools for solving geophysical and astrophysical problems. Methods have been developed to effectively implement spherical harmonic expansion approximations. However, the Gibbs phenomenon was already observed by Weyl for spherical harmonic expansion approximations to functions with discontinuities, causing undesirable oscillations over the entire sphere.
Recently, methods for removing the Gibbs phenomenon for one-dimensional discontinuous functions have been successfully developed by Gottlieb and Shu. They proved that the knowledge of the first expansion coefficients (either Fourier or Gegenbauer) of a piecewise analytic function is enough to recover an exponentially convergent approximation to the point values of in any subinterval in which the function is analytic.
Here we take a similar approach, proving that knowledge of the first spherical harmonic coefficients yield an exponentially convergent approximation to a spherical piecewise smooth function in any subinterval , where the function is analytic. Thus we entirely overcome the Gibbs phenomenon.
This work presents the modelling of heat transfer in a polymer sample submitted to a microwave field in the quartz column of a dilatometer surrounded by vacuum to avoid convection. The temperature rise is studied in transient state by the finite element method. It is assumed that a uniform and constant heat production is maintained in the entire volume of the sample. It is shown that it is possible to design the set composed of the sample and of the column to achieve a nearly uniform temperature in the whole volume of the sample while its temperature is raised from 20 to 250°C at a heating rate of 5 deg·min?1. 相似文献
We consider the statistical mechanics of a fluctuating string (1D solid-on-solid model) ofN columns with a contact energy term displaying a critical wetting transition. For this model we derive a contour integral representation for the finite-size partition function. From this representation we derive a polynomial representation and obtain the Lee-Yang zeros forN , 100. Through the asymptotic evaluation of the contour integral we evaluate the zeros for higherN. This asymptotic evaluation displays a Stokes phenomenon providing a different viewpoint of the mechanism by which a phase transition can arise, supplementing the picture of Lee and Yang. We also reproduce and extend somewhat the results of Smith for the finite-size scaling limit of the partition function. 相似文献
Swelling and mechanical behaviour of interpenetrating positively charged polymer networks (IPNs), composed of poly(1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone) (PVP) networks and polyacrylamide (PAAm) networks, was investigated in water/acetone mixtures. The first PVP networks were prepared by radiation polymerization at room temperature; after that the PVP networks were swollen in PAAm aqueous solutions and the networks were prepared by thermal copolymerization at 65 °C. The IPNs were prepared with various amounts of the two charged comonomers (quaternary ammonium salts) in the presence of crosslinkers. Two transition regions, detected in the dependence of swelling ratio X on acetone concentration a, suggest that a two-phase structure was formed. The first transition, located between 44 and 60 vol% of acetone, corresponds to PAAm networks, while the second transition, located at 75 vol% of acetone, corresponds to PVP networks. Depending on the amount of positive charges bound to chains, both transitions exhibit continuous or discontinuous character; this fact indicates that intermolecular interactions between the two components occur with the formation of IPNs (e.g., more polar, charged PVP component increases the extent of hydrogen bonding and makes acetone less effective solvent for IPNs at the PAAm transition). The dependences of log G on log X are roughly the same regardless of charge concentrations; this means that the mechanical behaviour is predominantly determined by the degree of swelling for all gels. 相似文献
Motivated by the potential usefulness of polyethylene glycol (PEG)/Li+ salt mixtures in several industrial applications, we investigated the structure and dynamics of PEG/LiClO4 mixtures in D2O and its mixtures with CD3CN and DMSO-d6, in a series of PEG-based polymers with a wide variation in their molecular weights. 1H NMR chemical shifts, T1/T2 relaxation rates, pulsed-field gradient NMR diffusion experiments, and 2D HOESY NMR studies have been performed to understand the structural and dynamical aspects of these mixtures. Increasing the temperature of the medium results in a significant perturbation in the H-bonded structure of PEG in its PEG/LiClO4/D2O mixtures as observed from the increase in chemical shifts. On the other hand, the addition of molecular cosolvents has a negligible effect. The hydrodynamic structure of PEG shows a pronounced variation at low temperature with increasing molecular weight, which, however, disappears at higher temperatures. Increasing the temperature leads to a decrease in the hydrodynamic structure of PEG, which can be explained on the basis of solvation–desolvation phenomena. The 2D HOESY NMR spectra reveal a new finding of Li+-water binding in the PEG/LiClO4/D2O mixtures with the addition of molecular solvents, suggesting that the Li+ cation diffuses freely in the D2O mixtures of polymers as compared with the polymer mixtures with DMSO or CD3CN. 相似文献
An experimental method of measuring the real contact area of transparent blocks based on the principle of total internal reflection is presented,intending to support the investigation of friction characteristics,heat conduction,and energy dissipation at the contact interface.A laser sheet illuminates the contact interface,and the transmitted laser sheet is projected onto a screen.Then the contact information is acquired from the screen by a camera.An improved Otsu method is proposed to process the data of experimental images.It can compute the threshold of the overall image and filter out all the pixels one by one.Through analyzing the experimental results,we describe the relationship between the real contact area and the positive pressure during a continuous loading process,at different loading rates,with the polymethyl methacrylate(PMMA)material.A hysteresis phenomenon in the relationship between the real contact area and the positive pressure is found and explained. 相似文献