地质灾害与降雨雨型的关系研究

地质灾害的发生与降雨历时、降雨量及降雨雨型有密切的关系,不同雨型的降雨诱发地质灾害的诱发机制具有明显的差异性。本文通过收集的降雨实况与地质灾害反馈资料,将诱发地质灾害的降雨雨型分为3种类型：台风降雨、持续强降雨和局地暴雨。研究表明,台风降雨型降雨诱发地质灾害具有"即雨即滑"的特点,即地质灾害的发生与降雨在时间上具有较好的对应关系;地质灾害发生空间位置与台风运移轨迹也基本一致。多为群发型地质灾害,灾害规模较小,一般为表层或浅层滑坡、崩塌。持续强降雨型降雨诱发地质灾害,在强降雨过程中地质灾害具有同步发生的特点;在降雨强度不大但连续降雨过程中,地质灾害具有一定的滞后效应;在地质灾害大规模发生后,诱发新的地质灾害雨量阈值提高。局地暴雨型降雨诱发的地质灾害往往集中发生在出现局地暴雨的当日当地。     

汶川地震后四川省巴州区地质灾害特征研究

5•12汶川大地震震后,对四川省巴州区次生地质灾害应急调查表明,地质构造和地形地貌是巴州区地质灾害形成的主导因素,降雨是地质灾害的主要诱发因素。巴州区主要的地质灾害类型为崩塌和滑坡,其中崩塌的危害性较大。现场调查表明,巴州区崩塌地质灾害类型以岩质崩塌为主,滑坡地质灾害类型以残积层滑坡为主,主要分布在构造侵蚀中低山和侵蚀剥蚀桌状低山地貌区。5•12汶川地震对潜在的崩塌危岩体的稳定性有不良的影响。     

用IRIS/AP-ICP-AES法对大气降水中K、Na、Ca、Mg同时测定的研究

本文采用ＩＣＰ－ＡＥＳ法同时测定降水中Ｋ、Ｎａ、Ｃａ、Ｍｇ的含量。根据各元素的特性，为选择合适的入射功率、雾化压力、提升量以及试样的酸度等条件进行了探索，并且，用选定的最佳条件对样品进行测试。方法简便、快速、准确。测试结果的相对标准偏差均小于３％。     

A rainout model for the study of the additional exposure rate due to rainfall

A simplified rainout model is presented in this study. According to this model formulations have been derived to relate the exposure rate on the ground to the radon progeny concentration in raindrops as well as the radon concentration in cloud air. By normalizing the saturation exposure rate of the calculation to the HPIC measured value and by the use of reasonably assumed values for some other parameters, the radon progeny concentration in raindrops as well as the radon concentration in cloud air has been determined.     

A real time forecasting model for landslides triggered by rainfall

The FLaIR model has been developed for the simulation and the forecasting of landslide movements activated by rainfall. It is composed of two modules. The first, rainfall-landslide module, correlates precipitation and landslide occurrence. The second, stochastic rainfall module, provides synthetic generation of rainfalls, giving a probabilistic representation of future precipitations. A mobility function, schematised as convolution of the rainfall intensity and a filter function, is related to the probability of landslide occurrence. The forecasting consists of the estimation at time of the value that the mobility function may attain to, at time t. Such a value depends on both the observed rainfall intensity, measured before , and the estimated one, derived from the stochastic rainfall module in the interval ], t]. Then the mobility function is composed of a deterministic and a stochastic part. In the paper a parameter, variance index, is introduced in order to describe the roles of the two components. For two very general classes of filters the analytical form of the variance index is determined providing an easy evaluation of the weights of the two components. The behaviour of different types of landslides is finally emphasised by two case studies.

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Sommario Nel presente lavoro viene presentato un modello, denominato FLaIR, per la simulazione e la previsione dei movimenti franosi innescati dalle precipitazioni. Esso si compone di due moduli: il primo correla le piogge con gli eventi franosi; il secondo effettua, invece, una generazione sintetica di dati di precipitazione, fornendo una rappresentazione probabilistica delle piogge future. La probabilità del verificarsi dell'evento franoso è messa in relazione con una funzione di mobilizzazione, schematizzata come convoluzione tra le intensità di pioggia e una funzione filtro. La previsione consiste nella stima, al tempo , del valore che la funzione di mobilizzazione potrà attingere al tempo t. Tale valore dipenderà sia dalle intensità di pioggia osservate, misurate prima di , sia da quelle stimate, nell'intervallo ], t], derivanti dal modello stocastico di precipitazione. Il modello risulta, dunque, formato da due componenti: una di natura deterministica e l'altra di natura stocastica. Al fine di descrivere il ruolo di ciascuna delle due componenti viene introdotto un parametro, detto indice di varianza, per il quale viene determinata l'espressione analitica per due classi, molto generali, di funzioni filtro. Tali espressioni consentono una facile valutazione del peso di ciascuna componente. Viene, infine, analizzato il comportamento di frane di diversa tipologia tramite lo studio di due casi reali.

     

Implications of rainfall temporal resolution for soil-moisture and transpiration modeling

Dimensionless groups of parameters characterizing an ecosystem are valuable indicators for the a priori assessment of the effect of rainfall data resolution on predictions of soil moisture and transpiration. Knowledge of these dimensionless groups enables identification of appropriate levels of rainfall data resolution, when using historical rainfall directly or when using it to derive rainfall model parameters for use in models of soil–plant–climate systems. Detailed simulation studies of the soil, plant, and climate systems in Colorado and Texas, highly resolved in time and vertical space, show that historical rainfall data resolved at the daily level allow accurate prediction of soil-moisture and transpiration dynamics for smaller time resolutions. These results support inferences based on the dimensionless groups. Furthermore, no significant improvement in the prediction of soil-moisture and transpiration dynamics is attained, when representing rainfall through a more complex Neyman–Scott model rather than the simple rectangular pulses Poisson model.     

A new integrated surface and subsurface flows model and its verification

A new coupled model for simulating surface and subsurface flows in a fully integrated way is presented. This model contains two sub-models; one is the 2D kinematic wave approximation of the Saint Venant’s equations used to model runoff, and another is Richards’ equation for variably saturated subsurface flow. In this model, boundary conditions (the conditions describing groundwater discharge at the land surface or surface water infiltration into the subsurface) could be eliminated through mathematic transformations of the governing equation of surface and subsurface flows. The solution of surface and subsurface flows could be simultaneous. And the surface domain and subsurface domain could be considered as a fully integrated domain. This approach naturally provides pressure and fluxes continuity along land surface. In order to assess this modelling approach, several classical validations, verification and application test cases are presented. For overland flow solely, the model is compared to an analytical solution and to commonly use hydrological models. The integrated model is then validated with a sandbox laboratory experiment and a soil column test. Finally, the effects of rainfall intensity, hydraulic conductivity of soils and initial bulk water content of soils to runoff and infiltration of a homogeneous soil slope are studied under different conditions.     

RAINFALL RATE CONVERSION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA COUNTRIES

The knowledge of 1-minute rainfall rate distribution is very important in order for the prediction of rainfall attenuation at any location. Due to the availability of 1-minute rainfall rate data is limited, conversion of rainfall rate distribution over a long integration time into the distribution for 1-minute is needed. Therefore several rainfall rate conversion methods were proposed.     

雨介质中球形目标的GHz复合散射特性

将背景空间及其中存在的离散粒子作为一种连续的电介质,得出了背景空间中离散粒子存在时混合体的等效介电常量模型.利用该模型和国际电讯联盟给出的雨衰减测量数据,确定了GHz波段雨介质的等效介电常量并验证了其有效性.得出了雨环境中目标复合散射场的解析式,对雨环境中球形目标的复合微分散射进行了仿真与分析,进而研究了降雨率、电磁波频率及极化状态等因素对复合微分散射的影响.计算表明:降雨对微分散射的影响在10^-3分贝上,电磁波垂直极化时降雨的影响大于其水平极化时的影响.研究结果对精确制导和目标识别等有一定的参考意义.